likelihood of getting an upgrade?

Ok shot in the dark here, not expecting any miracles whatsoever but just wondered what my chances would be of getting an upgrade to upper class when I arrive at the airport based on my following criteria.....
LGW to LAS on a return economy discounted fare during the sale (not miles + money) @ £701.00
Single Traveller
Red flying club member with 40,000 miles
No meal request
Took advantage of the upgrade from econony to PE option at a cost of an additional £500
Have 2 x VA Credit Cards
Also if you do get an option to upgrade on the day do you have to check in at the airport or does it still work when you check in online?
Like I said, total stab in the dark, just curious as to what the criteria would be if UC wasnt full.
LGW to LAS on a return economy discounted fare during the sale (not miles + money) @ £701.00
Single Traveller
Red flying club member with 40,000 miles
No meal request
Took advantage of the upgrade from econony to PE option at a cost of an additional £500
Have 2 x VA Credit Cards
Also if you do get an option to upgrade on the day do you have to check in at the airport or does it still work when you check in online?
Like I said, total stab in the dark, just curious as to what the criteria would be if UC wasnt full.