Upgrade Availability (Or Lack Of)

Hi Guys,
Looking for a bit of advice. I'm a regular on the LHR-DXB route and I'm looking to purchase an "M" class fare out on the 17th Jan, back a week later with a view to using miles to upgrade to UC on at least the outbound. It would appear that UC O/B Reward Seats and Upgrades are pretty much non existent to Dubai for almost the whole month of Jan and Feb. Yet, when i check Expert Flyer only 6 seats are actually sold in UC on the O/B.
Will i take the chance and purchase the "M' with a view to hopefully getting the UG at check-in? Should I UG to PE anyway so at least I'm halfway there? Do seats become available nearer the time if unsold. I've not really seen this happen often before.
Also this flight will be the 4 tier points i need to achieve Au for the first time. I guess the base tier points for the original fare booked are not effected by any miles upgrade. Do you just get those? I'm sure on an upgrade i once ended up getting the tier points of the cabin i ended up seated in?
Thanks !
Scott
Looking for a bit of advice. I'm a regular on the LHR-DXB route and I'm looking to purchase an "M" class fare out on the 17th Jan, back a week later with a view to using miles to upgrade to UC on at least the outbound. It would appear that UC O/B Reward Seats and Upgrades are pretty much non existent to Dubai for almost the whole month of Jan and Feb. Yet, when i check Expert Flyer only 6 seats are actually sold in UC on the O/B.
Will i take the chance and purchase the "M' with a view to hopefully getting the UG at check-in? Should I UG to PE anyway so at least I'm halfway there? Do seats become available nearer the time if unsold. I've not really seen this happen often before.
Also this flight will be the 4 tier points i need to achieve Au for the first time. I guess the base tier points for the original fare booked are not effected by any miles upgrade. Do you just get those? I'm sure on an upgrade i once ended up getting the tier points of the cabin i ended up seated in?
Thanks !
Scott