V-Flyer

I have heard on the news that virgin announced they are looking for a replacement for their LGW 747 fleet as the lease ends at the start of 2019. Anyone know what aircraft virgin are looking at?

Longy1912 wrote:I have heard on the news that virgin announced they are looking for a replacement for their LGW 747 fleet as the lease ends at the start of 2019. Anyone know what aircraft virgin are looking at?

I've heard a few possibilities, but I guess keeping all options in the bag may help secure better deals.

Most likely Boeing 787-9, 787-10 or B777-X, Airbus A350 or A330neo.

787 seems likely in whatever form, unified fleet could reduce cost in theory.

787-10 or A350-1000 seem to be a no brainer to me. I could potentially see an order for 18 A350-1000's and quietly cancel the A380 order.

10 to replace the A330's (which I believe were only seen as a short term fix) and 8 to replace the LGW 747 fleet.

A combined 787-9 and A350-1000 fleet would give a good mix of aircraft for VS.

clarkeysntfc wrote:...and quietly cancel the A380 order.

Ha ha - I'd put money on the fact that was already done, a long, long, time ago...

clarkeysntfc wrote:...A combined 787-9 and A350-1000 fleet would give a good mix of aircraft for VS.

A combination of 787s and A350s would certainly be an efficient fleet!

Whatever they choose will still lead to a reduction in seats available. The LGW 747's iirc seat 455 pax? The A350-1000 site says it seats (in a typical arrangement) 369 - so thats nearly 20% less seating for starters, the 787-10 is even worse at 323 (over 30% loss in seats). Not an issue at off-peak times but cometh the peak on routes like MCO we could see a lot of travellers disappointed if they cannot get flights due to less seats being available. Unless of course frequencies are increased seasonally (slots permitting). The Boeing 777-9X looks to be closest in terms of seats at around 400. I am sad to think that we will probably never see the A380 in VS colours however I suppose the option to lease A380's rather than own could always be a possibility.

It will be very interesting to see how this eventually plays out.

The loss of capacity as the 747s leave could also give rise yo price increases as thee smaller aircraft will be flying full especially at peak travel periods. I still believe that the old VS would gave been able to fill A380s and compete with BA on routes like LAX, HKG, and SFO.

PaulS wrote:The loss of capacity as the 747s leave could also give rise yo price increases as thee smaller aircraft will be flying full especially at peak travel periods. I still believe that the old VS would gave been able to fill A380s and compete with BA on routes like LAX, HKG, and SFO.

I hadn't thought about that but you make a very good point about increases in fare. On a typical peak (summer school holiday) day when using the MCO route as an example you have 2 x LGW, 2 x MAN and 1 x GLA (weekends only i know) - so 5 flights at a potential 455 seats per flight - so 2275 seats in total.

Factor in the other LGW 747 routes like LAS, CUN and HAV and the loss in seat numbers increases even further.

Now lets say VS go down the A350-1000 route and working on the Airbus figures of 369 pax, the same 5 flights bring in only 1845 seats in total. A loss of 430 seats - almost a full 747's worth!!! Just on one destination alone.

So, potential scenarios are:
1 - less seats and higher fares
2 - Increased frequencies - if they can get slots

Could there be a place for a sub-fleet of A380's or maybe the 747-8? I am sure Boeing would love to do a deal to sell some 747-8's

The eventual issue here is that DL appear to be calling the shots on some major issues, even though they don't hold a majority share. I know that they can approach Airbus and Boeing and use the combined airlines requirements as a major bargaining chip in fleet negotaiations.

Is it me but do I slowly but surely see VS more and more becoming DLUK?

I don't think it is down to seats but how many engines the aircraft have ie TWO

Although the A380 has four engines it cost per mile is favourable due to its capacity. There's something not quite right with the VS offering when BA can upsize to 2 x A380 per day to LAX and VS have been downsizing to an old 343. If the trip reports that we see on here were a fair representation then with the lounge and a new A380 VS should be able to easily out compete BA on this route.

ken54 wrote:I don't think it is down to seats but how many engines the aircraft have ie TWO

That's not always the case. Of course, it will burn more fuel but costs are slashed in other areas such as engine maintenance. Typically engines on a four engined aircraft are a lower thrust rating, so operational loads should be less (i.e shared across four rather than two). Provided the airline can maintain healthy pax numbers, everything should balance out.

IMO the A380 does attract pax, so I'm sure VS could make it work!

On my last flight with VA the FSM told all new VA aircraft will only be TWO engine aircraft so no A380's

ken54 wrote:On my last flight with VA the FSM told all new VA aircraft will only be TWO engine aircraft so no A380's

That's a real shame. The A380 is a nice aircraft.

The facts are, it's neither us nor any FSM's which place any orders for planes.

The only thing we know for sure is 2019 is a long way off and many, many things can happen between now and then in the aviation world.

Remember the 747's that have just been refurbed were original built for Alitalia before being cancelled and delivered "as new" to Virgin so things can change at the last minute.


David

(Also hopping for some A380's because of the seats needed to replace these outgoing planes )

I think the truth is VA cannot afford to run 4 engine aircraft anymore which is why they got the A330's and that is a sad fact

I can understand DL and VS reluctance to take the 380 - it costs a lot and it's the deprecation of the asset over time thats the issue not the operating cost.

Operating cost wise without the costs of finance/deprecation - The numbers I've seen are a A380 uses roughly same fuel as a 747-400 - but takes 30-40% more passengers (conservatively - in a higher density setup). Virgin must be making money on Orlando now at peak (ticket prices can be through roof at times), and being able to put more seats on bums would effectively make each seat = more profit in simple terms. Allowing more UC would be a bonus as well. I'd see them increasing UC by 50%, PE same, rest Y - ie, likely resulting in 600 pax/plane at least.

Agree it's too soon for a final decision - but I agree with all here, that going to smaller planes is likely not the answer for some routes - it'll lead to more than significant price inflation - thats not good for VS long term - as that will discourage the route - or move people to the dark side (who notably have more club seats). For someone who travels a lot to US - Orlando is a key leisure destination, and I certainly don't want to be paying that much more than current prices - which even now can be horrendous at peak - it's put us off booking for Oct..

Interesting figures from LH

http://leehamnews.com/2010/07/07/747-8- ... -weigh-in/

According to LH both the A380 and747 have so better fuel burn than the A330. I suppose in the end it depends on whether VS have enough confidence in the brand as to whether they could fill these larger aircraft.

When I first started flying with VS I could only afford EC or sometimes PE but it was the fact that they had the beautiful 747s which distinguished them from the other holiday long haul operators. I fear if they become a smaller two engine fleet then airlines like Norwegian Thomson etc who are operating similar aircraft will take passenger in EC and PE away from VS

PaulS - it depends on the routing for sure - and it's all not about l/pax.

From what I've read online I've done - is A333 is more effective than 747 at mid-point of range - ie it's more efficient on shorter hops than ultra long range - max range stuff, due to costs of hauling the fuel. 747 however is more effective at mid-range. (ie, LH's numbers not entirely true). For that reason I wonder if Mumbai and other routes on the A333 at the "lengthy" ends of the range will move to 787 on VS as they become more common.

The other factors are also big ones for airlines. A333 can apparently haul a lot of cargo on the above type routes - allegedly it's performance at max take of rate/landing capabilities is amazing.

A380 - however is allegedly more limited in cargo stakes (according to some forums) - and can apparently only manage customers bags on the more long-range routes - I'm sure this cargo side will play into VS's decision.

Not the 777X though, that won't have entered service then. I'd plump for 350-1000s or even 1100s if Airbus launches that. It should be possible to switch any 380 commitments and deposits with relative ease.

Note that Airbus's 369 seats on an A350-1000 is a two-class estimate, VS might get a few more with a small UC cabin. It can seat 475 in an all economy form!

Times have changed though, with VS downsizing all around in pursuit of profitability. I think it will be a long time if ever before VS starts flying bigger aircraft - so whether that means the airline gets smaller, or VS seeks to launch new routes, buy slots or whatever, time will tell.