V-Flyer

I wonder if some experienced folk could offer some advice please? We're looking to fly Virgin London Gatwick to Orlando in August 2015 and are looking to book in the next few days.

Of course we're well aware that prices fluctuate for a number of reasons (our preferred dates rose by £200 for the group overnight last night) but I was just wondering if there is a best time to book? A best day of the week, for example? Might the prices have gone up last night simply because a Sunday is a popular time to book online? Might they come down again or will that be it now? Obviously the long term trend is always upwards, but any advice gratefully recieved.

Many thanks.

Matt

Hi Matt and welcome to v-flyer.

I think the considered opinion of many on the forum is to book as soon as you see a price you're comfprptable with. There is no rhyme or reason, no algorithm to determine when prices are going to change. Prices are set by the revenue team who keep a constant eye on bookings, and adjust accordingly to optimise revenue. So if your preferred dates rose by £200 last night, there's no way anyone can determine if the prices on those dates will come down again.

I can tell you from experience in monitoring fares for a few weeks on a route I wanted, that fares remained reasonably constant with small increases per person week on week, so I snapped up my tickets and a few weeks later the prices shot up, because the tickets in the lower and more restricted fare buckets (which I'd booked) had gone.

If it's a particular fare bucket you want, you'll have difficulty on the VS website selecting a preferred bucket these days because of IT changes. Use the ITA matrix software if you know how (easy to learn) to see what fare buckets there are, and prices, and then, assuming you're an FC member, call FC to see if you can get the tickets.

Post the route and dates on here and ask for a load check, those with access to expertflyer will happily do that for you which will tell you what fare buckets are available, just not prices.

Best of luck.

Many thanks indeed - very helpful!

Orlando in August is always popular.

Airlines divide their tickets into separate buckets within each cabin and allocate a number of seats to each fare bucket.

These have different terms and conditions applied to them so a more expensive ticket will be more changeable in terms of dates or cancellations or be able to use miles to upgrade. The cheaper buckets are less (or not) flexible at all.

The cheaper buckets sell out first and then sales proceed up through the buckets until only the most expensive tickets are left.

If you have seen prices go up in a few days that could indicate that people are buying flights and so the cheapest fares have gone. Yes a lot of people book on a weekend but that does not mean that VS increases prices just because of that. Sainbury's dosen't increase prices at the weekend just because a lot of people shop on a weekend.

There really is no logical pattern about how airlines price their tickets.

There are Nobel Prize Winners who would be stumped by the art of 'revenue management' and how they calculate these things.

I assume that VS will have a sale on over christmas / new year so you might want to wait for that BUT even in a sale there is no guarentee that a particular route or even flight or dates will be included.

Firstly you are looking at a very popular route and during school holidays However prices are often much cheaper towards mid/late August.

Personally I would never book any fares during mid December. Within the next week or so, Virgin & BA will announce a fare sale. More than likely August won't even figure in it but I have watched fares increasing significantly recently. Then once the sale is announced, they come back down to the point before the Companies loaded the price

Yes I am a cynic but a wise experienced one

Tontybear --- sorry to duplicate some of what you said but we must have hit the 'submit' button at the same time

The January sale is normally very good, that's what I'm waiting for. Not sure if that's coming this year though as theres a sale on atm ranging until the 27th of January i believe. If you think there good prices then do it imo. If your looking for UC its very restricted availability and PE isn't any better.

Hev60 wrote:Tontybear --- sorry to duplicate some of what you said but we must have hit the 'submit' button at the same time

Just shows how wise we both are!

According to the headforpoints blog, the sale that's on now (both VS and BA) IS the winter sale. And the discounts on most routes don't seem to be very good.

Things may change of course, but at the moment bargains appear to be thin on the ground. Certainly nothing even approaching BA's recent Club World for £1007 deal (which was only for flights over Christmas when few business travellers fly so there are lots of unsold seats).

VS did have a similar £1007 deal - mysteriously priced as £1006 or £1008 on the couple of options I looked at!


If there are no real sale fares does that not show that people are booking at 'normal' prices hence no need to sell them off cheap?

tontybear wrote:VS did have a similar £1007 deal - mysteriously priced as £1006 or £1008 on the couple of options I looked at!


If there are no real sale fares does that not show that people are booking at 'normal' prices hence no need to sell them off cheap?

They normally just match BA

Very poor BA sale fares this year. Nothing to the US for under £2k return in Club World except MCO, TPA & PHL.

I've done it a number of ways over the years. Always in school holiday times, either late July or late August. Late August has always been cheaper and noticeably quieter in the parks etc. (The majority of their schools go back around 2 or 3 week of August) Last week of August/first week of September was relatively delightful!

It's generally cheaper to fly out on non-peak days, so Mon/Tues/Weds - the weekend's are busier so dearer.

As already noted it does depend on exact dates (best to be a little flexible) and the class of travel etc. Buy at a price you're comfortable with and never check the price again!!!

What I have seen suggested as an alternative to a direct flight is to fly LHR to Atlanta and then take a domestic to MCO.

Might be worth pricing up. Also another alternative to try and get rewards too.

Gumshoe, don't forget the Ex-EU trick.

I've just booked DUB-LHR-SFO in Jan and in CE/UC as a revenue flight for £1493. BRU this time was £2234 so it looks like DUB is the current favourite for cheap Ex-EU.

One thing the OP can be sure about is that flights to Orlando, in the school holidays will almost certainly sell out. It's just a case of how long it takes to sell out & at what price.

As others have said, any sale that Virgin have will only price match BA. You're not going to get any killer offers. I just ran a dummy sale through for 2 weeks in Orlando in August & the economy fare was £1115. Ouch. The last time I flew LGW-MCO-LGW in economy I paid £445 - admittedly, this was in 2004.

On the second screen of the booking where you select your flights, some of the return ones were showing as "Only x seats left" - so it gives you an indication that a fare bucket may be about to sell out & the price go up.

RyanJW wrote:Gumshoe, don't forget the Ex-EU trick.

Oh don't worry, I haven't! Looking forward to 2 weeks in Orlando next month for £1215 ex-DUB plus £61 for the LHR-DUB sector on EI.

Yes, DUB does seem to always be the cheapest EU starting point these days. BA must be seeing quite a few empty seats in CE between LHR & DUB ...

Yeah it is a bit of a pain for me as I had a nice stop over at friends/biz partner in BRU.

I suppose the Ryanair flight from Luton at £17.30 for the LTN-DUB positioning sector kinda makes up for it. I think I'm going to stay at the Radisson Blu Airport hotel for the night.

Kraken wrote:One thing the OP can be sure about is that flights to Orlando, in the school holidays will almost certainly sell out. It's just a case of how long it takes to sell out & at what price.

Absolutely - every flight I've been on in the school holidays is full to the max. I know I've paid less than some but probably more than others...

Get a price you're happy with and never look back...

It is also worth checking prices with VH; sometimes you can get the flight and "free" car hire with them for less than VS can offer just for the flight..

As has been said, the lower price buckets from VS will have either sold out, or just not been available, but VH have in effect a larger number in their "price bucket" so you might be lucky...

Also do consider MIA - it is about a 4 to 5 hour drive to Orlando and might be another option...