V-Flyer

Hi all, long time no speak!

With todays news of the A330neo order, I've written an article containing my thoughts on the future of the VS fleet. Figured it might be of interest to a few here.

(hopefully I don't break any forum rules by posting the link)

http://www.inflightwithjames.com/post/my-thoughts-on-the-future-virgin-atlantic-fleet

Very intestine article and as I said in the other thread I didn’t realise how chequered a history the VS330s have!

I still cannot get over this whole loss of the 747 issue on the MCO route. It’s not just a case of higher yields as for the combined business they potentially loose a lot of VH income from package holidays. The move for TCX long haul seems more important in this context!

The problem with MCO is it’s highly seasonal. Yes, there are days in high summer and around other school holidays when VS needs all the capacity it can get and any reduction in seats will be keenly felt. But those days probably amount to no more than 20% of the year. For the other 80% the 747s are nowhere near full, particularly down the back, and huge, thirsty four-engine birds flying half empty just isn’t efficient.

So for the vast majority of the year, A350s or even A330s will be perfectly sufficient. And to cater for the peaks, VS does have the little-used VS49 and 50 slots which enable it to fly three times daily from LGW to MCO on the busiest days in high summer. Maybe that rotation could be used more often to increase capacity when it’s needed, fleet availability permitting.

Thanks for sharing an interesting article.

I think MAN offers a microcosm of what the various aircraft in the fleet might be required for in future.

For example, you could see the:

1 - A35K (up to 4x IMO) operating MAN-MCO, BGI, JFK, ATL.

2 - A330s (A339, A333 & A332) operating MAN-JFK, ATL, LAX, BOS, LAS, BGI, MBJ of the current routes - they could also operate any of the possible future / resumed / Thomas Cook routes such as SFO, MIA, SEA, BOM, DEL, HKG, CPT, GOI.

I think the A332s are the first to go in 2021, but we could see some of the A333’s (such as those operates outright) operate alongside the A339’s for longer than currently planned - in the same way as the B744s and A346s are doing now.

If you look purely at numbers - the 747's at the moment hold 455 people, the current A330-300's, 266.

During peak times there are 5 full 747's landing into MCO - 2 from LGW, 2 from MAN and the other 1 from either LGW, GLA or BFS so that's a total of 2275 seats.

To cover that with A330's in their current config, VS would need another 3 1/2 A330's so basically 4 more planes to maintain current capacity. Which is also 4 more pairs of slots from somewhere and probably more difficult, 4 more gates at MCO which is pretty manic with 5 jumbos departing within a few hours of each other already from that small satellite area. (is there 9 gates in that area ?)

Even reducing the 747's to 4 per day, that only reduces the A330's to 7 instead of 9

Whatever happens, it will be some sight at MCO to see all those VS tails lined up.

Of course, if its the A350 that replaces the 747's all the above is irrelevant as we don't know what the leisure fleet seating capacity will be. The business fleet being 335 but with 44 Upper seats which will no doubt be cut dramatically.

Interesting times ahead for us Orlando travellers.

David

jwhite9185 wrote:Hi all, long time no speak!

With todays news of the A330neo order, I've written an article containing my thoughts on the future of the VS fleet. Figured it might be of interest to a few here.

(hopefully I don't break any forum rules by posting the link)

https://www.inflightwithjames.com/post/my-thoughts-on-the-future-virgin-atlantic-fleet

Cracking article, thanks for sharing.

gumshoe wrote:The problem with MCO is it’s highly seasonal. Yes, there are days in high summer and around other school holidays when VS needs all the capacity it can get and any reduction in seats will be keenly felt. But those days probably amount to no more than 20% of the year. For the other 80% the 747s are nowhere near full, particularly down the back, and huge, thirsty four-engine birds flying half empty just isn’t efficient.

I'd say it's more than 20% of the year. I've been on those flights in September to/from MAN after the schools have gone back and it's been almost full.

Hi,

So I've been looking at schedules early 2020 and what planes are on what route for Manchester & Gatwick, and maybe I'm wrong, but it looks like the number of 747 routes in Winter 19/20 drops off quite significantly?

For example, the last week in January 2020, I can only find 747s on Orlando from Manchester and Gatwick (even here, Manchester is A330s mid week) and also Montego Bay from Gatwick?

Are we therefore looking at some 747 retirements at the end of this year? The peak 747 requirement in January looks like 3, plus maybe 1 spare? Far short of the 8 currently operating.

Thanks in advance
SJB

I tend to agree on the MCO route in summer. Actually having booked it THIS summer in peak travel season, we ended up on BA as pricing on W/J on VS were ridiculous - and due to BA's larger J capacity, VS lost my business. That said I've also been on many VS routes where Y is near empty, but W/J are packed on the *current* 747 . (both to LAS and MCO). This is in October, non-school holidays, May (same), April (same) and Feb (same). I have equally been on near empty 747 routes in Y in Feb, May where the 2nd flight of the day was clearly just operated for premium passengers.

Personally I see that VS are betting the following:
1/ A350 - J pax increase yearround will offset 2 months of losses compared to 747 in Summary.
2/ Pricing of Y in summer may be able to increase due to reduced capacity.
3/ W capacity will be mostly similar - or possibly increased given I've never personally seen an empty W cabin nowadays.

So that would give a A350 J capacity of maybe slightly less than LHR current known capacity, W capacity similar to offset W for J, and Y increase with the increased sapce. I would wager a final J capacity of 24 would be appropriate (ie 6 rows) with the space, with W fitting behind J at current levels, no "sofa" - huge wasted space if you move W forward... - and all the rest of the current A350 W space from row 7 backwards being J. With premium and UC sharing loos potentially... The issue really is the new sofa collab area, as the alternative is moving the kitchen forward to avoid a huge loss of space.

However, I also don't discount there being no leisure config at all and Virgin trying the LHR config on MCO. You never know 40 J seats could all sell .... BA seem to do a good job at that. That would have more advantages in terms of a flexible fleet, and you never know, they could have done the maths on even selling an additional 26 J seats yearround at 2k per seat... I don't discount the loss of Y capacity in summer, but I'm also wondering if (strangley) VS have considered doing an all-Y config on a lease plane on the third slot, which would do a lot to address the capacity loss.

Coming out a couple of weeks ago on the 015, Upper was full, Economy was full and strangely enough, Premium, on the lower deck only had about half a dozen in it.

Normally it’s Upper and Premium that’s bursting.

Will find out the return in an hour or two assuming Gatwick is all fixed.

David

SJB747 wrote:Hi,

So I've been looking at schedules early 2020 and what planes are on what route for Manchester & Gatwick, and maybe I'm wrong, but it looks like the number of 747 routes in Winter 19/20 drops off quite significantly?

For example, the last week in January 2020, I can only find 747s on Orlando from Manchester and Gatwick (even here, Manchester is A330s mid week) and also Montego Bay from Gatwick?

Are we therefore looking at some 747 retirements at the end of this year? The peak 747 requirement in January looks like 3, plus maybe 1 spare? Far short of the 8 currently operating.

Thanks in advance
SJB

I looked into this a few days ago and it inspired me to write an article about it. The universal opinion when I posted it on Twitter was "never, they'll stick around until 2021".

But there's definitely a drop off for winter 2020.

http://www.inflightwithjames.com/post/t ... ntic-s-747

SJB747 wrote:Hi,

So I've been looking at schedules early 2020 and what planes are on what route for Manchester & Gatwick, and maybe I'm wrong, but it looks like the number of 747 routes in Winter 19/20 drops off quite significantly?

For example, the last week in January 2020, I can only find 747s on Orlando from Manchester and Gatwick (even here, Manchester is A330s mid week) and also Montego Bay from Gatwick?

Are we therefore looking at some 747 retirements at the end of this year? The peak 747 requirement in January looks like 3, plus maybe 1 spare? Far short of the 8 currently operating.

Thanks in advance
SJB

MAN-ATL is scheduled for the 747 this winter again. There's also a few MAN-JFK flights after October being upgauged to a 747 for a few weeks with A330's taking over the route again.

I don't know what the delivery dates are, but I suspect it could be case of VS not yet finalising exact aircraft for certain routes heading into the winter. They did this last year at the height of the 787 engine issues.

jwhite9185 wrote:I looked into this a few days ago and it inspired me to write an article about it. The universal opinion when I posted it on Twitter was "never, they'll stick around until 2021".

But there's definitely a drop off for winter 2020.

https://www.inflightwithjames.com/post/ ... ntic-s-747

A reduction after the Summer 2020 season would make sense going by what's out in the public domain regarding 747 withdrawals made by VS before (i.e. gone by 2021) and thinking logically about when A350's will be delivered by to facilitate this.

MCO is a pretty unique destination in the network. I and others I know fly it reasonably frequently out of MAN. Almost always outside of the peaks in summer and half terms etc. On the 1 hand it is indeed always full in UC in my experience. Don't think I've ever seen a spare seat. Loads in W tend to be a bit sporadic. Loads in Y rarely seem 'full' and often there's loads of spare seats. Outside of the obvious peaks, I'm always a little surprised it supports (at least) a daily 744 out of MAN year round.

Even though UC seems constantly full, I don't see VS adding significant J capacity. You only have to look at reward flight finder to see that it's not too hard to get G's if you have some flexibility, even with only 14 seats available in total per flight. This includes peak times too, just look at it now for July/Aug this year. So, personally, I would think the J capacity isn't far off right as it is now. What makes MCO hard to plan for I imagine is during the peaks, you need all the Y capacity you can get!

jwhite9185 wrote:

SJB747 wrote:Hi,

So I've been looking at schedules early 2020 and what planes are on what route for Manchester & Gatwick, and maybe I'm wrong, but it looks like the number of 747 routes in Winter 19/20 drops off quite significantly?

For example, the last week in January 2020, I can only find 747s on Orlando from Manchester and Gatwick (even here, Manchester is A330s mid week) and also Montego Bay from Gatwick?

Are we therefore looking at some 747 retirements at the end of this year? The peak 747 requirement in January looks like 3, plus maybe 1 spare? Far short of the 8 currently operating.

Thanks in advance
SJB

I looked into this a few days ago and it inspired me to write an article about it. The universal opinion when I posted it on Twitter was "never, they'll stick around until 2021".

But there's definitely a drop off for winter 2020.

https://www.inflightwithjames.com/post/ ... ntic-s-747

Great article, nicely summarised. Thanks for sharing.
Will be interesting to see which one's are still around at the end of the year!

Thanks
SJB

The 744's should be around until at least 2021; a snippet from an VS Trade A350 article I came across:

All of the initial A350 deliveries will be based at London Heathrow. The final five planes will offer a leisure configuration and will operate routes to Florida and the Caribbean from London Gatwick and Manchester Airport. These deliveries will take place in 2021 as we begin to retire our 747 fleet.