Covid 19 Thoughts on the likely actions in the weeks to come

I just cannot see the US banning UK flights. The NYLON route is too important given the current economic climate. They may put additional screening at LHR~JFK/EWR and slim schedules but I cannot see a complete ban.

I completely agree, but equally, did you expect them to ban flights to the rest of Europe? I certainly didn’t.

At the end of the day, public health is taking priority. I believe the UK, and by extension most of the world, is entering a recession because of COVID-19 which will take some time to recover from even after the worst of the virus has passed.

[mitchja]

VS have extended the cancelation waiver window to May 31st now for bookings made before March 12th:

Our flexible no change fees policy

To give you greater peace of mind with your upcoming travel plans, we've introduced a flexible no change fees policy

for bookings made before 12 March, for travel between 1 March and 31 May 2020. Travel can be rebooked between 13 March 2020 and 31 December 2020.

for bookings made between 4 March and 31 March., travel can be rebooked between 4 March 2020 and 31 December 2020.

This means that if your plans do need to change, you can switch your flight to an alternative date with no penalty. Rebooked flights will be subject to availability and any difference in fare.

You can also choose to re-route on a Virgin Atlantic or Virgin Atlantic Codeshare flight to or from your original destination, or rebook to or from another destination.

Travel must be completed on or before 31 December 2020.

This policy applies to all booking classes (including Economy Light) on all routes in Virgin Atlantic’s international network, and for tickets booked with us on our transatlantic codeshare flights with Delta, Air France and KLM. Your flight number will begin with the letters "VS". It also includes Flying Club redemption bookings.

To change your flight:

As you can imagine, we are extremely busy helping customers impacted by the increasing travel restrictions relating to Coronavirus.

The current wait time is several hours. To help us prioritise customers with imminent travel plans, we're asking that you only hold on the line if you're due to travel in the next 72 hours.

Travel advice is frequently changing, so we recommend that you wait until closer to your departure date to get the most up to date information.

If you booked direct, please contact our customer center via our SMS messaging system on +44 (0) 7481 339184 (available 24/7) or 97634 from the US. If you are calling us from overseas please visit our contact information

If you booked through a travel agent or a third party, please contact them to discuss rebooking and refund options.

Boris Johnson has called this the worst public health crisis for a generation.

Donald Trump has declared a national emergency.

Country after country is closing borders and imposing ‘lockdowns’.

BA’s chief exec says the airline industry is facing a "crisis of global proportions".

And yet - people are still talking about flying away for Easter or even sooner.

Seriously - forget it.

Even if flights are still operating, what’s the point?

Don’t get me wrong - it sucks. Particularly if you stand to lose money. But common sense has to prevail. Your - and everyone else’s - health is the most important thing. Holidays can wait.

UPDATE: the US travel ban is being extended to include the UK and Ireland, according to Reuters.

From Monday, apparently.

I just cannot see the US banning UK flights.

It just has, according to Reuters (and BBC News).

Disastrous for VS.

Surely a complete network shutdown is now on the cards. VS can’t viably operate with just a handful of flights to the Caribbean, Asia and Africa.

Depending on how things progress next week I can foresee a further cost cutting announcement, followed by closure of Clubhouses in the states for a period and heavy lobbying to the UK Govt by Airlines UK over financial aid for the disruption.

The UK (and Ireland) ban starts at midnight on Monday night EST, says VP Pence.

US to extend coronavirus travel ban to UK https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51891662

UK banned from the US from Monday!

I just cannot see the US banning UK flights. The NYLON route is too important given the current economic climate. They may put additional screening at LHR~JFK/EWR and slim schedules but I cannot see a complete ban.

They just have

[honey lamb]

The airlines are actually also telling you not to contact them unless you are travelling within the next 72hrs. VS and Expedia are currently quoting 2hr call centre wait times. I suspect everyone else is in the same situation.

I booked to fly to South Africa on Thursday next with VS. It's not a straightforward booking as I'm flying into LHR from Cork and from JNB to Durban and I've booked it through Expedia. Since last Thursday, I have tried time and time again to phone Expedia to change my booking without success. Several times I have been met with a message that they are having technical difficulties at present and the call is ended. On one of my earlier calls I got through to an agent and requested a date change. He came back to me once when I was on hold saying he was having difficulties in connecting to the airlines and asked me to continue on hold but after 30 minutes of silence, the call dropped. Twice I got through to an agent, each of whom told me that there was a system failure and asked me to call back in 4 hours time. Every other time it's been the technical difficulty response or I'm asked to hold on for an agent and the call drops at some stage in the waiting time.

It would be easier at this stage to cancel and rebook but, like mitchja I'm reluctant to lose my hard-earned money and in any case I can't even get through to cancel! It looks like I'm going to be a no-show next Thursday.

The airlines are actually also telling you not to contact them unless you are travelling within the next 72hrs. VS and Expedia are currently quoting 2hr call centre wait times. I suspect everyone else is in the same situation.

I booked to fly to South Africa on Thursday next with VS. It's not a straightforward booking as I'm flying into LHR from Cork and from JNB to Durban and I've booked it through Expedia. Since last Thursday, I have tried time and time again to phone Expedia to change my booking without success. Several times I have been met with a message that they are having technical difficulties at present and the call is ended. On one of my earlier calls I got through to an agent and requested a date change. He came back to me once when I was on hold saying he was having difficulties in connecting to the airlines and asked me to continue on hold but after 30 minutes of silence, the call dropped. Twice I got through to an agent, each of whom told me that there was a system failure and asked me to call back in 4 hours time. Every other time it's been the technical difficulty response or I'm asked to hold on for an agent and the call drops at some stage in the waiting time.

It would be easier at this stage to cancel and rebook but, like mitchja I'm reluctant to lose my hard-earned money and in any case I can't even get through to cancel! It looks like I'm going to be a no-show next Thursday.

I had a TA booking this weekend to NYC. Not direct with Expedia but with a company who uses Expedia under the hood. I couldn’t get through to the TA despite trying for 3 days. I rang VS during T-24, and they didn’t even flinch in dealing with the ticket, instantly made it an open ticket so it could be re-booked in future.

Spent 60 minutes on hold and the issue itself was dealt with in less than 4 minutes. Granted, your situation is more complex and I wouldn’t want to be waiting to T-24 - but you do have some hope because VS are doing pretty unprecedented things to deal with this situation.

Overall, they’re doing a bloody brilliant job.

Hate to even contemplate this question. But can VS survive this?

This is surely the business’s worst case scenario and I hope they are resilient enough to get through it.

Positive thoughts with all of their great staff.

[mitchja]

Hate to even contemplate this question. But can VS survive this?

This is surely the business’s worst case scenario and I hope they are resilient enough to get through it.

Positive thoughts with all of their great staff.

I hope so as well. Rumours where that VS had just starting turning a profit again as well. That wont last now sadly.

The way some airlines are talking about this being worse than 9/11 is very very worrying as I believe VS where not far off the brink just after 9/11 though as least they have Delta behind them now.

The US has banned flights from UK. Starts Monday

I can see how they are saying that. Unprecedented to have flights cut off across so much of the world. Every day more and more regions are effectively closing their borders, not just the US. This is worse in that regard as airline's now are finding their route map reduce and reduce with know real way to know how long this will remain. If the peak of the virus they say is trying to be delayed until June then I imagine these flight restrictions and reduced demand won't be restored for some time. Even regions without bans will be struggle from the drop off in demand. If we then go into a recession as a result of this slowdown then it all starts to look very bleak IMO!

Hate to even contemplate this question. But can VS survive this?

This is surely the business’s worst case scenario and I hope they are resilient enough to get through it.

Positive thoughts with all of their great staff.

I hope so as well. Rumours where that VS had just starting turning a profit again as well. That wont last now sadly.

The way some airlines are talking about this being worse than 9/11 is very very worrying as I believe VS where not far off the brink just after 9/11 though as least they have Delta behind them now.

I remember reading SRB’s book ‘Losing My Virginity’ where he devoted a few pages to how they reacted to the immediate aftermath of 9/11 in order to keep VS going. It wouldn’t surprise me if similar efforts are made now. If it becomes an existential threat, it may have to involve both SRB and Delta putting money into the business and making some very tough decisions, especially that SRB cancelled the sale of some of his stake to Air France-KLM.

I also foresee a number of airlines worldwide going bust, particularly the weaker ones and those that firmly fall into the “basket case” category.

I can't see Norwegian or Alitalia (the great survivor to date) getting through this.

All very worrying...

If it becomes an existential threat, it may have to involve both SRB and Delta putting money into the business.

Sadly, given that DL itself may struggle to avoid Chapter 11 bankruptcy, it seems hard to believe that ploughing money into ensuring the survival of an already unprofitable or at best marginal airline whose business model has just effectively collapsed will be top of its priority list.

DL will have issues across the board on their equity investments. I think this one will be for Virgin to solve. I think they're safer than a lot of others but it depends how long this goes on for... Without a doubt, further cuts will be announced imminently.

This is going to be massively challenging for Virgin. Tough for the management team to make plans not knowing how long this ban will be in place and all staff who for at least a period of time won’t be able to work. This virus is going to cripple the global economy and it will be a long road back.

I believe there are still a few VS employees on here - can I send them all my best wishes for the future and thank them all for their service in the past .

I will be among the first to book when the ban is over.

David.

I believe there are still a few VS employees on here - can I send them all my best wishes for the future and thank them all for their service in the past .

I will be among the first to book when the ban is over.

David.

+1 to that, it is going to be very tough times ahead for the Virgin staff plus airport staff in general (so Crawley area, for example, is going to take a big hit affecting many personal friends)

My trip to LAS at the end of the month is definitely now off with the travel ban to USA (trade show I was attending was moved in last 48 hours to a new date in June but I was still going to go to visit friends etc) but it's also going to be tough on the hospitality industry there unless internal US travellers keep visiting for leisure while all/most trade shows get cancelled.

Unfortunately it's not just the travel industry but whole hospitality industry is suffering too - friends who drive & tour guide on European coach tours are already without work since January or, the luckier one, February (most coach operators already cancelled this week everything until 30th April - not April 3rd, the closing date set for schools to take them up to school holidays). I have had to close all my businesses in Brussels as of last night with my staff laid off on emergency wages of just 70% yet obviously all their usual bills to pay next month....but it's hard to top up any wages even if we legally could because rents, insurances etc still to pay with zero income until probably end of June (though we can hope only until end of May) so we can hope to reopen and not lose the jobs forever. Many friends in Brugge are in the same situation having to close their bars, restaurants and hotels or lose their jobs in the same. Another friend in Prague is in a similarly awful situation having to close all 7 of his bars/restaurants plus a nightclub and can only hope Czech government helps with his staff as he can't pay them for more than a month or so before going bankrupt meaning no jobs for folks to come back to at the end of all this.

Anyway, didn't mean to go so far off topic, main point is that like David I really hope Virgin survive and there is plenty of help and support for the aircrew and ground crew of Virgin and other airlines who have given such loyal service - folks with families to support and all the usual bills to pay.