Gatwick Airport

Morning all, looking back at some old pics last night got me wondering, in the near future (next 12-18 months), do we think Virgin will return to Gatwick ?

David

Can’t see it personally.

Even before the pandemic they’d significantly reduced operations at LGW. LAS had moved to LHR, HAV was about to, CUN and VRA had been axed and UVF was due to go too. IIRC this time last year LGW was down to only 3 or 4 flights a day on average.

Now they’ve got more than enough slots at LHR to meet demand for the foreseeable future so it makes sense to keep costs down by consolidating at one base, and they can always use MAN to increase capacity on the leisure/VFR routes if and when it’s required.

I too cannot see Virgin returning to Gatwick any time soon. It just isn't financially viable to operate two London bases at the current time. They have enough slots at Heathrow to operate the reduced route network (as above, Gatwick only had a handful of flights anyway). Heathrow slots are way too valuable to lose, so Virgin (& all other airlines for that matter) will do all they can to retain them.

Based on the way things were going before the pandemic, I can see the expansion being at MAN when things start to pick up. Virgin have invested in a Clubhouse in T2X, so they clearly had plans for MAN. Also they won't want Aer Lingus - so IAG - muscling in on too many routes from MAN.

As a slight aside, I was looking at Google Earth images of Heathrow & Gatwick yesterday - the images are all clearly taken since late March last year, as both airports are complete parking lots. The images of Manchester are much older, as T2X does not exist & there is a Virgin 747 on gate 210.

I agree with Kraken broadly, I cannot see any VS return to Gatwick in the medium term. Gatwick's whole model seems to have shifted substantially as part of the pandemic, it was aspiring to be Heathrow 2, and was somewhat successful in that, with long distance ops to most parts of the world EK and QR had a big presence, Cathay, China Airlines, China Eastern added in to what was a growing leisure market with DY to the US. BA had added JFK to the list quite successfully, and it looked like VS and DL were set to expand with flights to JFK and BOS due to pop up! Some of which was reactionary to JetBlue, but some of which was tapping into the market at Gatwick.

Flash forward, and the conditions have changed. The leisure market in DY has now gone, long haul premium carriers are pulling out of LGW, and Wizz seem to be taking all of the slots. LGW will I think for several years feel very much like Luton or Stansted as a "subprime" hub for low cost whilst premium retrenches into Heathrow for the foreseeable. In the next 5 or so years as air travel recovers, if that returns to what it was will remain to be seen, but I wouldn't put my money on it.

My views are the same as the others. I can't see it happening in the short-to-medium term for as long as VS need something to fill slots at LHR and until such a time VS find something else more lucrative to use the LHR slots for. I say the last point because there's no guarantees routes that transferred to LHR will ever return to LGW.

Gumshoe also makes the good point that VS have been slowly reducing their presence at LGW in recent years due to a combination of scrapping routes and transferring them to LHR, so an argument could be made this was inevitable in the event of a downturn. it was just MCO and a few Caribbean routes plus the aborted return of JFK.

It sucks for those that prefer LGW for a multitude of reasons (e.g. Surrey/Sussex/Kent/Hampshire/South Coast folk), but in the current climate there's no need for VS to maintain a presence at two London airports sadly.

Finally, I am biased but I'm still relieved MAN wasn't scrapped last year as I genuinely feared they would retrench back to London despite the work done to grow their presence up here in recent years.

I think it depends when we can travel again freely. Testing may become the norm as plastic bags did post 9/11.

I’m a bit more optimistic - people are desperate to go away on holiday/visit family /start business trips again and we could see a strong bounce back. The earliest will be March 2022 - maybe 12 months later, but I expect they’ll be back in some form.

I think it depends when we can travel again freely. Testing may become the norm as plastic bags did post 9/11.

If my memory serves me right, the plastic bags / liquid restrictions were 2006, after the so called "liquid bomb" attempt that was foiled. The perpetrators had planned to take liquids that alone would not look sinister onboard transatlantic flights. When onboard, the liquids could be combined to create something with explosive properties.

I think it depends when we can travel again freely. Testing may become the norm as plastic bags did post 9/11.

If my memory serves me right, the plastic bags / liquid restrictions were 2006, after the so called "liquid bomb" attempt that was foiled. The perpetrators had planned to take liquids that alone would not look sinister onboard transatlantic flights. When onboard, the liquids could be combined to create something with explosive properties.

Mid-2000's is my recollection too. Don't forget the need to put them in a bag of specific dimensions (I know Liverpool Airport have a vending machine in security which sells bags for 2 for £1 or something like that). It's a right pain when you're flying hand luggage only as you have to buy toiletries that come in bottles that are both small enough to go on board and fit in the bag, as well as said toiletries being more expensive than the larger bottles.

Sometimes it's cheaper to buy standard sized toiletries after security from the likes of Boots as the regulations don't apply to bottles of liquids bought airside, or even when you're at the destination, but then if you're leaving them behind it's wasteful!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_tran ... ed_Kingdom

I remember the day quite clearly, I was going to Inverness as part of a Summer holiday trip around Scotland, and I was on the direct train from York to Inverness (a GNER HST for those who know of such things!) and the train including in First Class was full and standing all of the way to Edinburgh as were most other trains that day as GNER and Virgin Trains had offered free travel to anyone holding a valid boarding pass.

I don't foresee a return to Gatwick until they're maxed out at LHR using their slots. They'd then push the Caribbean back to Gatwick. As others have commented, LGW will really struggle I fear over the next few years. I could foresee Ryanair and Wizz really trying to grow there. JetBlue could do well for Gatwick in the absence of DY.

I'm not entirely sure how well JetBlue is going to work either STN or LGW. It feels a bit niche like when LaCompagnie or SilverJet flew from Luton to JFK. I appreciate that JetBlue will have Y and J, but it still all seems a bit niche compared to what they did with the JFK-LAX market with Mint originally.

I'm not entirely sure how well JetBlue is going to work either STN or LGW. It feels a bit niche like when LaCompagnie or SilverJet flew from Luton to JFK. I appreciate that JetBlue will have Y and J, but it still all seems a bit niche compared to what they did with the JFK-LAX market with Mint originally.

La Compagnie is an all-business class airline (same with SilverJet, EOS and Maxjet).

JetBlue won't be a niche operation. They've talked about launching TATL flights with A321LR's for some time and these flights are now possible because of it. I guess using LGW and STN is because they couldn't get slots at LHR or all in one place. JetBlue's issue is building brand recognition in the UK as they're unknown to many, whereas in the US they've been established for some time now and are serving parts of the US where they have a strong presence. On the flip side, using LGW/STN is a good way to test the market before shelling out for LHR slots.

EDIT: I should also add that I flew on JetBlue several years ago on a US domestic, was really impressed. I guess expectations from a LCC are different in the US, but with things such as seatback IFE with live TV and free coffee, they put the established LCC's in Europe to shame.

[mitchja]

JetBlue also announced their new Mint J cabin the other week they will be using on the London route, details here. That's well on a par with VS and BA's existing product but leaps and bounds ahead of the other legacy US carrier TATL J products.

I have used Jet Blue many many times over the years. Their Terminal 5 at JFK is well organised, even with a lounge which we used last time having flown VS into JFK and then had to wait for connection down to RSW.
I’ve always been very impressed with the them, including offering competitive fares and their uk plans for J cabin is a nice style.
Secretly hope they opt for Stansted coz that’s just up the M11 for us. However American didn’t last long there, nor did the Maxjet or Silverjet airlines. I reckon they’ll use Gatwick.
We need those borders to open first

Jet Blue might be a 'niche' airline to many this side of the Atlantic but they do have a fan base across the pond.

Jet Blue also have a link up with AA on their US domestic operations which could be attractive to Brits flying to the US and even more so to Americans coming our way

Depending on the cost and schedule I could give them a go from LGW. The problem with the BA flight to NYC was they were using an oldish plane, seemingly often cancelled it so you had a mad dash to LHR anyway and the outbound schedule was wrong for a lot of people..

The VS/DL flight (can't remember if it was DL or VS was actually going to operate the JFK flight) did look to have a reasonable schedule.

They really would prefer LHR and took LGW and STN because those were the only slots they could get. They have made an official complaint to the UK Government about their being frozen out of LHR. I think they were hoping to pick up the slots AA and BA had to give up to JFK and BOS as part of the review ot the AA/BA joint venture.

I am still not convinced that JetBlue will be a major challenger, with 24 seats in J, and flying to STN and LGW, I remain to be convinced, that they will disrupt the market. I think they will do a good job, and I am eager to give them a go, but I'm just not sure what their game plan is, especially flying a route as dense for O&D traffic as NY-LON with a 321.

I am still not convinced that JetBlue will be a major challenger, with 24 seats in J, and flying to STN and LGW, I remain to be convinced, that they will disrupt the market. I think they will do a good job, and I am eager to give them a go, but I'm just not sure what their game plan is, especially flying a route as dense for O&D traffic as NY-LON with a 321.

If their profile in the US is anything to go by, I expect them to compete on price. Norwegian did all the disrupting for JetBlue whilst they were still flying long-haul, so with everything that's gone on since then with COVID and Norwegian exiting long-haul, I expect JetBlue will pick up parts of the market they used to serve.

That's not to say they will only go for the price-conscious traveller. The new Mint product looks very competitive and they have a large brand recognition in the US.

All that said, there's the small matter of borders opening on both sides of the Atlantic first. I can see launch being delayed until that happens.