V-Flyer

I am in two minds..

Gossip swings bothways, and to be honest on the scale I'm buying won't make a big difference, however never like giving away money "willy-nilly"

Some say, the Hung result is already factored into the current market rates, others that it'll start going to near 1:1..

I am having exactly the same issue as you.

I think I am going to buy half tomorrow and then see what happens after the election. The rate has dropped a bit today but I am in the camp that think it could fall quite heavily, at least initially, if we have a hung parliament.

Neil

There is likely to be a period of uncertainty for a while what ever happens on Thursday. So I would say the £ will remain in a similar position for a while as well. I do not see huge swing either way.

I like Neil's hedging idea, maybe even spread the purchase of currency out over a year.

Good luck

Buy now. That would be my advice. I think we will see the markets react quite heavily if we have a hung parliament, which is now looking more and more likely. Regardless of who the hung parliament involves, the markets will be hugely uncertain given that this is not exactly a common occurrence in the UK (indeed I think NZ is pretty much the only western democracy which has them on a regular basis).

Its also worth remembering that indirectly there is quite some concern in the market place over the financial positions of both Spain and Portugal, which will be indirectly effecting the markets coupled with the failed bomb attack over the weekend and the BP issue in the Gulf of Mexico.

Interestly, I'm in the same position.

In my experience, the markets want nothing more than stability; a hung parliment (if that's what we end up with - I hope not, I'm gunning for a conservative victory) is an anathma to that stability.

Labour have make a pigs ear of the economy, so I suspect the markets will drop if they are returned to office.

Oh well, brought the bulk of our needs today @ $1.47
Could be worse/could be better, but any fluctuation will likely be pence in the short term. Hopefully mrs NH won't come back from MYO skint on Friday, with a bag full of new shoes and handbags

northernhenry wrote:Oh well, brought the bulk of our needs today @ $1.47

Ditto, out of interest where did you buy through? I nearly always buy from AmEx Plat card people. They usually price match best rate I can find (did $1.478 today), deliver next day before 1pm, and you just send a personal cheque back within 7 days, all very quick and easy.

Neil

Neil wrote:

northernhenry wrote:Oh well, brought the bulk of our needs today @ $1.47

out of interest where did you buy through? Neil

Tesco's with cash. Looking like it's dropped again.
Looked online with Amex Plat, but rates weren't as good, didn't know they did price-match option, but uneccessary messing around, they should give best rate to begin with, if they're willing to sell, Shouldn't need to Haggle with a supposed premium service; as such they've lost my business..

northernhenry wrote:Oh well, brought the bulk of our needs today @ $1.47
Could be worse/could be better, but any fluctuation will likely be pence in the short term. Hopefully mrs NH won't come back from MYO skint on Friday, with a bag full of new shoes and handbags

1.47?? You should check with Thomson Exchange http://www.thomasexchange.co.uk/ have mentioned them here previously (I have no affiliation before anyone comments), always the best rates whenever bought currency. Currently 1.4910 and cable is trading lower than earlier today

willd wrote:Indeed I think NZ is pretty much the only western democracy which has them on a regular basis.

In the sense that a "hung" parliament = coalition then Germany, Israel, Belgium, Finland, Switzerland, Ireland, Italy and Japan all operate under these conditions.

Paul

Perhaps Italy isn't the best example. They don't have a government, more a series of sqatters.

pjh wrote:

willd wrote:Indeed I think NZ is pretty much the only western democracy which has them on a regular basis.

In the sense that a "hung" parliament = coalition then Germany, Israel, Belgium, Finland, Switzerland, Ireland, Italy and Japan all operate under these conditions.

Paul

My point being that the UK/NZ systems operate on an almost identical scale. Both use FPTP and have the Queen as head of state with a PM elected and have been dominated by two major parties.

It is also important to remember that a hung parliament doesn't equal coalition, it can mean a minority ruling party, such as in Scotland with the SNP. There are very subtle but important differences between the two.

Although NZ has a Westminster type Parliamentary system it actually uses a mix of FTTP and top up seats so its electoral system is more like that used for the Welsh Assembly the Scottish Parliament and the Greater London Assembly than Westminster.

So it is a mix of constituency MPs plus list seats that are used to top up the constituency results so that the overall results are proportional to total votes cast.

tontybear wrote:Although NZ has a Westminster type Parliamentary system it actually uses a mix of FTTP and top up seats so its electoral system is more like that used for the Welsh Assembly the Scottish Parliament and the Greater London Assembly than Westminster.

So it is a mix of constituency MPs plus list seats that are used to top up the constituency results so that the overall results are proportional to total votes cast.

Actually looking back on old university notes, I was wrong, NZ got rid of FTTP in the early 90's and now has Mixed Member Proportionality, which is essentially two votes one for a national party and one for a local candidate. As you say Tonty it is used in Scotland/Wales/ London.

willd wrote:

pjh wrote:

willd wrote:My point being that the UK/NZ systems operate on an almost identical scale. Both use FPTP and have the Queen as head of state with a PM elected and have been dominated by two major parties.

It is also important to remember that a hung parliament doesn't equal coalition, it can mean a minority ruling party, such as in Scotland with the SNP. There are very subtle but important differences between the two.

Will



I was taking issue with the statement that "NZ is pretty much the only western democracy which has them on a regular basis" as this isn't the case. In some respects the UK is out of step with other western democracies in having few checks and balances in the system derived from either the need to enter coalitions or having separate elections for the executive and legislative arms of government. Once you have a majority and a horde of "on message" parliamentary footsoldiers you can put through any cr*p you want.

Your point about the SNP is well made, but that relies on the fragmentation of the opposition or the ability to cut deals on a programme by programme basis which I'm not sure could cut the mustard if the ability to service government debt / exchange rates / interest rates were riding on it.

Paul

I can now answer this question - Before!!!!!!!!!

DocRo wrote:I can now answer this question - Before!!!!!!!!!

Wow - I check the XE currency app on my iPhone most days to keep an eye on the rates. I'm now glad I ordered my currency earlier this week!!

DocRo wrote:I can now answer this question - Before!!!!!!!!!

Thanks Mystic Meg !

Glad I doubled my order at $1.47 yesterday, the Post Office today were advertising a rate of $1.38!!!!

Neil wrote:Glad I doubled my order at $1.47 yesterday, the Post Office today were advertising a rate of $1.38!!!!

Ouch.

Travelex is quoting $1.42

Likewise for me - glad I picked up some US $ yesterday at Thomasexchangeglobal at $1.485 as opposed to some of the other rates on offer today.

If only I had been able to make it at the weekend previously when it was even higher

buns