PAX Numbers are down? Yeah right.

I've mentioned something somewhat similar a few weeks ago, but I have to rant again. This is the final straw for me.

I had wanted to travel from NYC to LHR for the first weekend in November. It was way too expensive. I also wanted to go last weekend. Economy prices never came below $1000, and the week before, they were at $1400.

I AM traveling back to the UK over Christmas. Last year I booked 21/12/08 - 29/12/08 in PE on December 8th for $1320.

I'm looking now, and the cheapest economy flight with VS around the Christmas period is $2618!!!! The cheapest PE comes in at $1908, not ideal airport combo/times/dates, but at a pinch it would be do-able. Is this a first?! Cheaper to buy PE than economy?? Like to take a guess at UC? If you fly Mon-Mon you can go for $3060, so only $400 more than economy.

Half the dates around Christmas for economy aren't even available, which means they're all full. I would love to know what's going on. Airlines keep telling us all the cutbacks and extra charges are because of plummeting pax numbers, but honestly, in the seven years I've lived here in the US, and been traveling back to the UK every Christmas (with VS) I've never seen prices so high, or flights so full.

Unless something miraculous happens, this will be the 3rd flight VS have lost of mine in the past 2 months, and at this rate, it's looking like I will not be AU next year.

The madness of fare buckets, electronic booking systems and fare calculations never ceases to frustrate or amuse. However, if you are looking at a flight with only full Y fare buckets remaining and then the PE cabin has discounted fares still available then that may cause what you describe.

The only way to check would be to expert flyer the sectors.

I would agree with the comments of the 'downturn' being wheeled out as an excuse to cut everything though. It seems that in the UK and US its almost accepted by the public as an inevitability and can be used to explain the most evil and pedantic bean counting. Sure some airlines have had it tough because of the sectors they have had to continue to operate. Yet VS has not struggled too badly financially by comparison and I believe that may be resultant of its very selective route operations to high yield destinations.

quote:Originally posted by centurionman
Yet VS has not struggled too badly financially by comparison and I believe that may be resultant of its very selective route operations to high yield destinations.


Without any hard evidence to quote, I think VS is suffering very badly. This based upon their incessant desire to strip away anything that constitutes a service above and beyond the normal.

quote:Originally posted by aft1981
I've mentioned something somewhat similar a few weeks ago, but I have to rant again. This is the final straw for me.


How far out are you looking? You mention booking Christmas flights three weeks before and really, you know, these are going to be expensive so your expectation is badly misplaced. Have you compared VS fares with other airlines for the same dates?

And, don't forget, every airline has cut capacity, so yes, flights are fuller.

As mentioned, capacity has been cut by all so that's where a lot of the fullness is coming from. No flight I've taken to NY before this year has ever been full in all cabins, yet 4 flights in the past 2 months and pretty much 100% on each of them, reflecting reduced capacity on the route, not just from VS. That said, I booked a PE miles redemption just last week to JFK for 2nd week of Dec and had the choice of at least 2 flights on all of my chosen dates so perhaps the nature of travellers has changed recently? If Economy is full, then perhaps there are more non-regular fliers enjoying Christmas holidays?

Regarding the cost of tickets, VS is a business not a charity so why wouldn't they set higher prices for the busiest time of year on the NY route if pax are willing to pay them? Prices are set weeks/months in advance given cost, market and competitive expectations so these prices are not VS trying to take advantage of Joe Shmo, they are simply a reflection of pure supply and demand.

quote:Originally posted by slinky09
quote:Originally posted by centurionman
Yet VS has not struggled too badly financially by comparison and I believe that may be resultant of its very selective route operations to high yield destinations.


Without any hard evidence to quote, I think VS is suffering very badly. This based upon their incessant desire to strip away anything that constitutes a service above and beyond the normal.

Virgins profit doubled in 2008/2009. Just because they stripping services bear it does not follow that they are suffering the same economic level of woe as some rivals. If they post another profit in May 10 it would seem reasonable to argue that the stripping of services is nothing more than economic exercise at expense of passengers.

[honey lamb]

quote: Is this a first?! Cheaper to buy PE than economy?? Like to take a guess at UC?
No, it's not a first. I railed when Flying Club decided that the miles earned on Z fares would be the same as those on W fares until I realised that the W fare was more than my recent Z fare.

quote:Originally posted by slinky09
How far out are you looking? You mention booking Christmas flights three weeks before and really, you know, these are going to be expensive so your expectation is badly misplaced. Have you compared VS fares with other airlines for the same dates?


I don't think my expectations are too unrealistic to be honest. Looking for a flight 3.5 weeks in advance, yes I understand it's Christmas, but I've never had a problem, as I mentioned, in the past 7 years of booking flights over Christmas.

Last year I booked on Dec 8th in PE for $1320. The year before I booked on Dec 19th (for a flight 4 days later) in full fare economy and upgraded w/miles to PE for $1160.

Delta has Business class w/full flat beds for $2300 via Atlanta, I think that could be best bet. Alternatively I'll call VS again and see if I can do something with miles. I dunno, it's just a little frustrating constantly hearing that airlines aren't getting the # of passengers, yet all the flights I've been on and looked into from NYC over the past year have been full.

[Scrooge]

I know where you are coming from, just on the domestic front getting to Florida has turned into an expensive trip.

International, forget it, with airlines cutting frequencies the flights are going out fuller, so the lower bucket classes are sold quicker.

Though this whole subject does kind of make me think my idea of putting the old J2K seats in the bubble and selling them as a Y fare bucket (because some companies only allow up to a Y) does make a little sense.

It's a veritable nightmare right now in the US. All flights super full. You REALLY need to pay attention to how you get from A to B, and the overall capacity cut has been remarkable. Well ... the way I look at it is that UA made a paper profit before special items the last quarter, so I can't really begrudge ...

Right now, if you want to fly with a 'preferred airline', don't expect to do it the easy way. Be flexible. I have to be. I'm making more connections than I used to, 'cause certain routes are just painful right now. Embrace that, and realize it's for the health of the airlines [:)]

The Delta deal sounds good - so try them.

@Scrooge - that would be very cool, if a little too creative ...

quote:Originally posted by centurionman
Virgins profit doubled in 2008/2009. Just because they stripping services bear it does not follow that they are suffering the same economic level of woe as some rivals. If they post another profit in May 10 it would seem reasonable to argue that the stripping of services is nothing more than economic exercise at expense of passengers.


There's a lot of speculation as to how VS's figures are reached and no detail, since the accounts are not published. There's also anecdotal evidence that things are not so good: SIA for example reported (since they have to publish accounts) that VS's second half profits last year went in to the red and the profit was accumulated only in the first half. With this year even worse than last, it's not an unreasonable guess to think VS will be having a very bad year unless all the cost cutting, staff layoffs, capacity cuts, etc. have worked.

I have noticed in previous years Virgins Christmas and New Year availability and priced change a lot with no notice!

Last year 8 of us went to New York for New Year, some in UC others on PE, basically when we were pricing it the fares went all over the place and to be fair so did BA's, in the end we held out and got fares we wanted, but as many have said capacity has been cut on this route so it can get busy!

We are going to Orlando this year again 8 of us and while we booked the flights from Manchester this time it was touch and go if it was going to be Virgin, the fares were sky high and I was going to book with BA via London but then one morning happened to check Virgin's site and they ahd come down by about 1000 each for UC, so promptly booked!

There is no doubt in my mind Virgin like other airlines are suffering, out of interest did you check how much BA would charge you for the same flights / class for this travel? In their defence they are a business and its about making money and at certain times of year they know people pretty much have to travel and cant be that flexible about dates, afterall Christmas and New Year dont move! The point being sometimes it is better to have a plane with some empty seats and everyone on it paying more that filling it at low prices!

I have also seen UC cheaper than PE before, never looked to see where Economy was at the time but as others have pointed out if full fare is the only Econ left then a cheap PE fare would be cheaper!

I can understand your frustration but there are a lot less seats from NY to London at the moment and Virgin along with all airlines will be trying to maximise the revenue for them and as its not only a month a way they may figure that anyone doing the trip who has not already booked needs to travel rather than a wants to and thus can charge higher fares!

Well I don't really want to risk waiting to see if the fares come down this time I'm afraid. Especially as there are currently a bunch of days showing no availability at all (although that (and prices) have changed no less than three times today. No joke. As of now they are selling economy seats for $2600 for the 20th-28th Dec, but the same flights were unavailable 7 hours ago).

So back to my original post, VS passenger numbers are down by at least 1 this Christmas. I've found Air France will take me from JFK to MAN via CDG in Y for $1050, and so I've reserved that. I must admit though, Delta, AA and Air Canada were a hundred or so cheaper, but, Air France just put their brand spanking new A380 into service last week, so 3 guesses which JFK-CDG flight I booked myself onto. [:D]

My main problem flying long haul in Y is that I'm 6'5' and don't fit so well. However, I looked at the seat map and the A380 seems to have plenty of bulkhead and exit seats, so fingers crossed I'll be able to get one of them. Upstairs of course.

I did find it a bit odd that AF don't offer a PE product on this plane though. Economy, business (with a flat bed) or first. Ah well. I shall post a trip report upon my return, in French obviously. Bon nuit.

quote:Originally posted by aft1981
Well I don't really want to risk waiting to see if the fares come down this time I'm afraid. Especially as there are currently a bunch of days showing no availability at all (although that (and prices) have changed no less than three times today. No joke. As of now they are selling economy seats for $2600 for the 20th-28th Dec, but the same flights were unavailable 7 hours ago).


Perhaps they are testing the waters to see if they can run the scheduled service or will be consolidating flights?

quote:Originally posted by aft1981
My main problem flying long haul in Y is that I'm 6'5' and don't fit so well. However, I looked at the seat map and the A380 seems to have plenty of bulkhead and exit seats, so fingers crossed I'll be able to get one of them. Upstairs of course.

I did find it a bit odd that AF don't offer a PE product on this plane though. Economy, business (with a flat bed) or first. Ah well. I shall post a trip report upon my return, in French obviously. Bon nuit.


I look forward to that and to your experience of AF service. I flew with them to LA a few years ago and vowed that never again would I put money their way.

Paul

The PE service is not being offered on the A380 as Airbus refused to install it.
They have learned from their experiences with some of the launch customers that if you let a customer do whatever they want then you are going to have hundreds of different configurations going through the pipeline at the same time having to reconfigure the machines all the time and generally causing a lot of fuss.
This all coming at a time when they are behind on deliveries and, despite the downturn, there are are airlines desperate to get this bird(whale) in the sky so that they can reduce CO2 emissions (and by that I mean operating costs) per pax mile.

Air France would have loved to have their PE product on this route, and it is a great thing for UK pax to use as well. The extra space, lounge access at LHR(this is not publicised at all), champagne (not sure if T10 is featured!), decent blanket, noise reducing headphones etc etc.
The downside is CDG as we have loads of complaints from customers saying that even though AF have increased their minimum connection to 1 hour from 45 minutes, this is still tight.
They have tried to say that the customers all arrive and depart from Terminal 2E (which has finally been repaired) but this is huge and there are A LOT of bus transfers to remote stands so you can't even run to the next gate if you are a delayed on your inbound flight.

Do PLEASE put a TR up on this, I am desperate to fly the A380 and a NYC run may well be the way that I finally get to do it.

Ed

quote:Originally posted by eejp1007
The PE service is not being offered on the A380 as Airbus refused to install it.


I understood that AF didn't determine their configuration to launch PE in the A380 when it was delivered and that all their 380s will, in future, be fitted and retrofitted...

From what I have been told, none of the A380s will be launched with it but that may just be the ones that are already in production rather than ones built from scratch.
Retrofitting will occur but I don't think that they will be rushing it because of the inherent attractions of the A380.