With availability not being reliable, it's a bit of a gamble. If you book a K PE fare, then you are gambling that S PE fares will be available in the event that an UC reward seat comes up. (Otherwise you'll have to pay an enormous fare difference to get to an upgradeable PE fare.) If you buy an S PE fare now, you're gambling that an UC reward seat will come up -- otherwise you might as well have bought the non-upgradeable K. The difference in price is around £350 I think, so not to be sniffed at.
The best value, in my view, is to book economy and try to upgrade with miles from there -- but of course that then is biggest gamble of all, because if no reward seats open up you get stuck in economy. :0 Others may recommend booking the upgradeable PE fare to be ready if any Gs appear.
It's a difficult one - with availability not great, hard to know what to do. Having been in this kind of situation myself, I book the base fare in a class I am ultimately 'happy' to fly, and then watch availability like a hawk, treating the two sectors as separate problems to solve.
I realise you'll probably have figured this out for yourself! Ironically the combi reward, which could conceivably be useful to you if availability suddenly appeared for one leg, is not available for UC...
Happy Christmas.