Fare Bucket Question....

Hi Guys,

Just a quick one which I have a feeling the responses will be..... who knows how the algorithms work!!!!!!

I am tracking a return fare to DXB that I need for 3 Pax and have been for about a month now, the return has that rare circumstances where the PE is cheaper than the Economy. But when I log into Expert flyer and check the loadings, the PE only has 6 seats left and Economy has about 95% still vacant. Likely as a result of the odd fare circumstances I guess but not conforming to what I would have thought to be the normal pattern of fare pricing? I'm kind of holding out for the next UC sale for the outbound, which I'm sure one is due, but don't want to lose out as I don't have a huge amount of flexibility. Again i'm looking to go out in UC and the day I want to go is dearer than the next day which has less availability. It's really like the system is screwed up. Which.... yes we all know it is.... but seems to be more so this week?

Thoughts?

Scott.

I forgot to mention.... I noticed also that the lower fare buckets were all showing zero availability for V, X, N & O on the return even though there are almost ALL the seats available. It's like they are just removing certain bucket availability to force the pricing up?

I don't have a huge amount of flexibility.
Scott.

Those few words would do it for me. I would not 'hold out for an UC sale' as you don't have the flexibility. If you see a price, book and don't look back - that's my advice FWIW.

I'm sure there are people more educated than me on here, but don't forget that, yes - fare buckets do disappear. For example, some fare buckets only apply if tickets are bought up to 30 days in advance etc. It's quite possible for an entire revenue fare bucket (but not the seats obviously) to disappear overnight! As Marshy says, if you see a price you like, book it! Also (although less likely with DXB as it's a once a day service) plane types can be changed at any point which will affect how many of any given type of seat there are.

PE can be cheaper than Y (and indeed UC cheaper than PE and sometimes on BA F is cheaper than J) if the cheaper Y buckets have sold but not the cheaper PE buckets.

And yes it can change on a daily basis. And yes changing by a day earlier can result in cheaper fares or a day later and it;s more expensive. Just the way the fare buckets crumble

But when I log into Expert flyer and check the loadings, the PE only has 6 seats left and Economy has about 95% still vacant.

Scott.

I stand to be corrected but I don't think expertflyer can tell you that economy is about 95% vacant

The most it can tell you is that are at least 9 seats available in the lowest economy fare code - nobody except VS know how many actual seats are in that specific fare code so looking at the numbers (if they are showing all 9's) it's impossible to tell what the economy load is like.

This could be throwing your calculations off dramatically.

I assumed the OP was looking at the seat maps which of course are not a reliable indicator of a flight's load as relatively few people select their seats in advance.