mitchja wrote:I personally don't think airlines will see the same levels of demand initially as they saw in 2019. Whilst is will build back up, it won't be anything like those levels this year or even possibly next year either.
As already mentioned, there is now also a fear of flying / public transport with many people. They don't want to be sat inches away from a stranger for 6Hrs+ on a flight somewhere. They don't like the idea of queuing in airports with minimal social distancing. Whilst mask wearing is starting to become the norm now, many people still don't like the idea of having to wear a mask for that length of time either only removing it to eat or drink. Anyone who wears glasses are requires hearing aids will top of that list for sure!
Many people will be asking themselves 'Is it worth with going through all that just for a week or two abroad?'
I suspect the answer for a lot of people will now be no that that at the minute.
There is also the financial impact the last 12months+ has had on a lot of people to factor in as well.
I would say 50-60% demand will probably be about right certainly for at least the rest of this year. Do remember that VS will be monitoring incoming bookings all the time and basing capacity on that as well as other market factors and of course following government guidelines for travel.
I had reason to wear a mask for 3-4hrs recently except for eating/drinking. The back of my ears were sore after that long wearing a mask, though it could be the cord on the back of the mask that's not great. I expect the only people who won't complain are healthcare workers who usually have to wear masks all day, but certainly from my perspective after my recent experience I don't like the idea of wearing a mask for longer than that unless absolutely necessary. Besides the mask issue, I have no qualms about public transport unless they're seriously overcrowded or if ventilation is non-existent.
Like you, I can't see a rapid recovery during the second half of this year. It will probably be the middle of this decade before capacity and demand are back to 2019 levels.
In the case of places such as Florida, even if Biden lifts the ban on travellers from the UK before the summer holidays, my personal opinion is that I can't see there being the usual amount of passengers travelling straight away. I also see that Florida COVID-19 cases have slowly been rising again in the last couple of weeks - not much of a surprise given they are one of the states attempting to fully open up and about 1/7th of its population have received full doses of a COVID-19 vaccine thus far: - https://www.miamiherald.com/news/corona ... 08916.htmlhttps://www.beckershospitalreview.com/p ... tered.html
I also see the governor has outlawed COVID-19 vaccine passports of sorts: -https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/03/us/f ... index.html
Hev60 wrote:For instance those folk who are planning trips to Orlando when the US opens up, need to seriously research how the theme parks are operating first. Just this weekend I had some American friends visit Disney/Universal and they said the ‘magical experience’ was totally missing.
That's not surprising. Even before Virgin Holidays cancelled our trip last year, I had made my mind up after reading into the measures the parks were implementing that I did not fancy it at all. The reservations idea I did not like in particular as I have been to more than one park a few times in the past and sometimes changed decision over which parks to go to the night before, particularly if the weather isn't looking favourable which makes certain parks less attractive. As soon as international visitors are allowed to enter the US again, I can see parks being booked out for weeks, or even months, on end. It's bad enough hearing about people who book into Disney restaurants as part of their dining plans weeks and months in advance.
Until such a time the parks lift all restrictions and they return to how it was before the pandemic, I'm minded to avoid them.