So the ash cloud is a myth?

Just watched a very good interview with publicity shy Michael O'Leary who is saying the current restrictions are wrong as no ash is in the airspace over Scotland.

Ryanair flew a plane through the no fly zone and no evidence of ash found.

I hadnt realised all the restrictions are based on Met Office predictions, not actual evidence as the only plane used by the CAA to monitor ash is out of service!

iATA head and CEO's of BA, Virgin have written to the Government to question the current ban too.

Could be interesting few days!

Very interesting! I will have to find a tv and catch the 1pm news...

I hope things are resolved by Thursday!

Have just read the statement on their website

http://www.ryanair.com/en/notices/gops/ ... H_MAY11-GB

Safety first I think but it does make you wonder..

I saw the intervierw and thought he was just downright offensive which makes a lot of people ignore what he says - even if it is sensible.

All very well to say they flew over 4 airports in Scotland and found nothing but he gave no info on the route taken or the flight levels.

Has he passed on his findings to NATS/CAA/Met Office??

I saw the intervierw and thought he was just downright offensive which makes a lot of people ignore what he says - even if it is sensible.

All very well to say they flew over 4 airports in Scotland and found nothing but he gave no info on the route taken or the flight levels.

Has he passed on his findings to NATS/CAA/Met Office??

I doubt they could pass much useful information on. I don't think they have specially equipped 737's to measure the ash content! Checking the engines once you land sounds a bit dodgy to me.

I'm rostered to fly some clients to Montreal on Friday. Hoping it's all blown away by then.

Now Phillip Hammond has essentially bitch slapped O'Leary !

Tontybear - i dont think he washelped by the terrible interviewer!

Another expert just on sky saying they may have got it wrong and safelevels may be much higher than thought.

What they need to do urgently is get that Cessna fixed and check the ash concentrations, otherwise i can see a larg lawsuit heading the way of the CAA and Government?

Another expert just on sky saying they may have got it wrong and safelevels may be much higher than thought.

Well if they're on Sky then they must be an expert. ): ):

Tinkerbelle - I wouldn't normally quote Sky but it seemed valid and the same expert as BBC!

Apparently the Ryanair flight did NOT fly through the 'red zone'.

A loganair test flight DID come across ash.

From what I understand, there is no no-fly zone, just graded areas that if an airline wants to fly, just has to ask the CAA for permission.
Seems odd that Ryanair say they have flown in the red zone, while CAA saying no one has even asked to...

Seems odd that Ryanair say they have flown in the red zone, while CAA saying no one has even asked to...

Well it's Michael (Anything for publicity) O'Leary saying it.....

Unfortunately O'Liary forgot to tell his pilot to switch off his transponder.
Everyone with a radar link could see that the flight was over 10,000ft above the ash!

No pilot is going to risk his licence on such a stunt - never mind his life!

...

Unfortunately O'Liary forgot to tell his pilot to switch off his transponder.
Everyone with a radar link could see that the flight was over 10,000ft above the ash!

Erm, isn't that what flight do, go up, cruise, then come down - should they have been flying cruise at 18k ft to make a point, or emulating a normal flight?

Whatever he may be, I think O'Leary still makes a valid point - we have no actual evidence of ash in the air because we have no equipment to test it, and all forecasts are based on predictions that, frankly, last year were proven wildly wrong.

So, what to do - how do you judge where to err on the side of caution or not?

Added to this a whole heap of rabid media speculation and reporting, masses of people worried, cost, disruption, etc.

I should think that building a business case based on the cost of speculation and disruption, to equip some agency with actual monitoring aircraft (or other) would be easy. Sounds to me like a short sighted view on this has been taken ...

Unfortunately O'Liary forgot to tell his pilot to switch off his transponder.

I should hope he wouldn't turn it off in controlled airspace.

Flightradar has an interesting overlay of the (predicted) ash cloud extent at different flight levels.

http://www.flightradar24.com/

Adam

Ryanair were claiming to be doing a test flight through the red zone - it appeared they did not. Flying above it proves nothing - quite a few flights were there travelling from outside the zone.

They can switch their transponders so they are visible to ATC but not Flightradar 24 - which is why many flights do not appear.
Pity the FR ash overlays only show the low density ash which is fairly meaningless under the new regulations - it is the red high concentration which matters.

The difference between the current advice and past advice can be seen by comparing the red zone with the grey/blue - and the advisory chart.

Has O'Liary fitted any test equipment to his aircraft?
Has he stripped down his engines to do a full borescope examination? (usually takes many hours)
Even if he did fly through the red zone would any single 15 minute flight climbing through the ash up to cruise level mean anything at all?

They can switch their transponders so they are visible to ATC but not Flightradar 24 - which is why many flights do not appear.

Many larger commercial aircraft now carry ADS-B which is viewable on an SBS receiver (with data uploaded to websites like flightradar24). This is an enhanced form of mode S transponder in that in enables more accurate data to be shared between the aircraft/ATC and other aircraft in the area.

Aircraft do not switch this off to avoid being seen by aircraft spotters using an SBS receiver! It's a safety feature.

I fly with Mode S - our aircraft are not yet equipped with ADS-B. If they were I would never "switch it off".

I heard on the 6.00 news on R4 that Ryanair have had months to submit their safety case to the IAA to operate in these circumstances but only did so last night.

BBC live feed (entry at 18.30) also reporting that IAA notified Ryanair they would rescind their license to operate if they attempted to fly.

I heard on the 6.00 news on R4 that Ryanair have had months to submit their safety case to the IAA to operate in these circumstances but only did so last night.

BBC live feed (entry at 18.30) also reporting that IAA notified Ryanair they would rescind their license to operate if they attempted to fly.

Oh wooweee. Shouldn't that be CAA, or is the IAA some sort of inference?

Sorry, I dislike Ryanair but bashing them isn't the point, bashing irrationality is so much more fun1

Apparently Ryanair are regulated by the IAA (Irish Aviation Authority) and not the CAA.

Sorry for any confusion.

As I said before MOL just puts people backs up by his attitude and generally insulting behaviour that when and if he has a serious and valid point to make people just ignore him.

I think the CAA cannot revoke Ryanair's licence as it is an Irish registered airline, hence the IAA reference, could be wrong though