VS's Future at MAN

Recruitment drive for Thomas Cook staff.

https://careersuk.virgin-atlantic.com/s ... k-cctc2019

Recruitment drive for Thomas Cook staff.

https://careersuk.virgin-atlantic.com/s ... k-cctc2019

“Location: You will be required to fly from London Heathrow and London Gatwick”.

Or they can do nothing, thereby reducing overall capacity on the route and pushing up fares while keeping costs the same. From a business point of view, that’s surely the more attractive option - albeit an unpalatable one for consumers.

That's a much better explanation of what I was trying to say

A rational but short term strategy if the suppressed demand causes increased prices and new market entrants emerge...

I'd love some of this speculation to come true, but I think VS will be very cautious and will therefore move slowly. I don't see any new routes coming anytime soon. They're still experimenting with BOS/LAX/SFO. ATL is still in flux since it's been daily, 3/4 weekly and everything in between over the last few years and it's been operated by the 332, 333 and 744. Even LAS now this year with a smaller aircraft and frequency increase. So that's a lot of juggling and uncertainty already and I just don't see them taking on anymore anytime soon. I'll be happy to be wrong though if they do.

Wasn't MAN-ATL winter reductions down to the 787 engine issues meaning the A330's were "borrowed" to cover out of London and a 747 being shared between ATL and JFK? ATL was daily/near-daily during DL days even when JFK was also daily, though in the latter years of DL it was either a 767-300ER or A330-200 which is probably a better fit capacity-wise than a 747.

Or they can do nothing, thereby reducing overall capacity on the route and pushing up fares while keeping costs the same. From a business point of view, that’s surely the more attractive option - albeit an unpalatable one for consumers.

I can see indirect options being popular if capacity isn't replaced and fares inevitably go up. The price hikes have already started.

A friend of mine had a honeymoon in Florida booked with Thomas Cook for May next year which, because of their insolvency, was cancelled. TUI wanted a a few grand more for the same trip with direct flights (assume SFB here) which priced them out of it. Yesterday, they were able to book an alternative with Virgin Holidays albeit with flights via JFK, so because of that they've added on 2 nights in New York. Win-win for them as their honeymoon still goes ahead with a New York tag-on as a nice bonus to take advantage of their flights being routed that way with pricing I assume to still be reasonable.

Indirect flights are fine for some people but if you’ve got two young kids in tow and just want to get to Disney World asap, the last thing you want is the stress and hassle of navigating JFK.

As someone said upthread, Thomas Cook’s demise essentially gives VS control of fares between the UK and MCO. They won’t be coming down any time soon.

[mitchja]

VS have had the biggest market share of UK>MCO flights for several years now so I suspect they have been able to lead the MCO fares prices for some time already.

VS are also the second biggest International carrier at MCO (behind Air Canada).

I just wonder if other airlines would start to kick up a fuss though if VS were to get MT’s market share of MCO as well?

Indirect flights are fine for some people but if you’ve got two young kids in tow and just want to get to Disney World asap, the last thing you want is the stress and hassle of navigating JFK.

I don't disagree and it's one reason why I said from all of the connecting options DUB comes across as the most compelling, though at this time an indirect option could be the difference between going or not going for some, as per my friend's example due to cost.

It will be up to individuals to decide what's more important and whether some of the alternative options are palatable enough to make it worthwhile.

I just wonder if other airlines would start to kick up a fuss though if VS were to get MT’s market share of MCO as well?

If they had the resources, there's nothing to stop other airlines from announcing they will step into the breach if they wanted to. The demand is there for the taking.

VS have had the biggest market share of UK>MCO flights for several years now so I suspect they have been able to lead the MCO fares prices for some time already.

VS are also the second biggest International carrier at MCO (behind Air Canada).

I just wonder if other airlines would start to kick up a fuss though if VS were to get MT’s market share of MCO as well?

I think this is spot on. I travel from MAN to MCO a lot and have done for quite a few years.

Thomas Cook’s fares were always cheaper than VS, but I still opted to fly VS, mainly for the Upper Class option.

I think fares will increase given demand and a drop in supply, but it’s not like historically VS fares were rock bottom on this route anyway.

Or they can do nothing, thereby reducing overall capacity on the route and pushing up fares while keeping costs the same. From a business point of view, that’s surely the more attractive option

But the demand's there and the gap will be filled by someone- and I'm sure VS don't want to loose any market share...

Or they can do nothing, thereby reducing overall capacity on the route and pushing up fares while keeping costs the same. From a business point of view, that’s surely the more attractive option

But the demand's there and the gap will be filled by someone- and I'm sure VS don't want to loose any market share...

But until that happens I do see prices increasing a little and once there is a new entrant then they will fall again.

Though that could depend on the competitor and what they are offering in terms of schedule, price and service.

What potential new entrants are there though?

Jet2 would be an obvious possibility but it doesn’t have any widebodies and has never flown TATL apart from some Christmas shopping specials to EWR using its 757s. I can’t think of any others though, and it’s not like anyone can just rock up and start an airline.

None of the US carriers have ever shown much of an interest in Orlando-UK routes, and I can’t see that changing. So for the time being it looks like VS, BA, Norwegian and Tui will be the only choices.

I sincerely doubt BA will base an aircraft at MAN, but I can certainly see them looking at seasonal summer-only options which would allow them to take a share of the lucrative and exposed summer MAN to Florida market without the costs of basing an aircraft and crew, like:

LGW-MCO-MAN-MCO-LGW
LGW-TPA-MAN-TPA-LGW

This makes sense to me given that there is clearly premium demand in J which currently outstrips supply at certain times of the year.

Much as I love travelling with VS I hope a new operator emerges on the route soon to prevent excessive price hikes.

Possibly, but I wouldn’t stake my life on it! BA have been anti expansion from anywhere other than LHR and LGW for a long time!

Possibly, but I wouldn’t stake my life on it! BA have been anti expansion from anywhere other than LHR and LGW for a long time!

Agreed. It would require some out of the box thinking.

You’d think if BA had any interest at all in the MAN long-haul leisure market they’d still be operating a shuttle to LGW to facilitate connections at the very least. But no.

[mitchja]

Didn’t BA also recently pull their LGW>FLL route?

Yes, but that was only launched to force out Norwegian, which it did. As soon as Norwegian moved to MIA, BA pulled it.

I don’t think there is any chance of BA long haul at MAN. That ship has long since sailed.

The demise of TCX provides a case for additional capacity for VS, almost certainly not on a 1:1 basis, but a case nevertheless.

Given that TCX operates 7 A330s at MAN, the case for 3/4 frames might have a decent business case.

What potential new entrants are there though?

Jet2 would be an obvious possibility but it doesn’t have any widebodies and has never flown TATL apart from some Christmas shopping specials to EWR using its 757s. I can’t think of any others though, and it’s not like anyone can just rock up and start an airline.

None of the US carriers have ever shown much of an interest in Orlando-UK routes, and I can’t see that changing. So for the time being it looks like VS, BA, Norwegian and Tui will be the only choices.

Jet2 have been using Air Tanker A330's for the last couple of years - they currently have 2 in the fleet. They're even using one from MAN for this year's Christmas flights to EWR.

The only likely candidate is DL given the VS JV, already operate an MCO-AMS flight and have also recently launched TPA-AMS, but a key factor there is KLM's AMS hub.

Yes, but that was only launched to force out Norwegian, which it did. As soon as Norwegian moved to MIA, BA pulled it.

Same with BA's LGW-OAK route as soon as Norwegian moved to SFO.

Possibly, but I wouldn’t stake my life on it! BA have been anti expansion from anywhere other than LHR and LGW for a long time!

Agreed. It would require some out of the box thinking.

BA CityFlyer have been operating summer short-haul routes from MAN and other regional airports to European destinations in the last couple of years. However, I suspect that was more down to the LCY curfew meaning that it's better to have them flying from somewhere rather than sat on the ground, plus BA CF are a subsidiary.

Recruitment drive for Thomas Cook staff.

https://careersuk.virgin-atlantic.com/s ... k-cctc2019

“Location: You will be required to fly from London Heathrow and London Gatwick”.

All Virgin cabin crew are initially London based. Once you've got a foot in the door you can apply to transfer to the Manchester base. More than a few London based crew live in the Manchester area - they get very cheap travel on Virgin Trains with their Virgin Tribe card & the London base gives them the larger route network.

Good news - in summary.

1 - VS is trying to use the collapse of TCX to accelerate growth plans at MAN in 2020. It is talking with ACL to obtain slots to do so.

2 - VS is prepared to use DL metal in order to achieve its objectives in the immediate term.

3 - clubhouse confirmed.

4 - it is looking to add frequencies in the immediate term to capture those who had booked with TCX but are now no longer able to do so.


https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomb ... cook-slots

Good to hear they finally confirmed the clubhouse!

Good news - in summary.

1 - VS is trying to use the collapse of TCX to accelerate growth plans at MAN in 2020. It is talking with ACL to obtain slots to do so.

2 - VS is prepared to use DL metal in order to achieve its objectives in the immediate term.

3 - clubhouse confirmed.

4 - it is looking to add frequencies in the immediate term to capture those who had booked with TCX but are now no longer able to do so.


https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomb ... cook-slots

It would seem VS management have been reading this thread for ideas!

Using DL to run flights with any additional slots acquired makes sense if they have the capacity to do so. Apart from revising fleet withdrawal plans, I was struggling to to work out how this could be achieved without acquiring more aircraft.

They're also talking about LGW slots, but I suspect that could just be talk given their gradual contraction there combined with competition for LGW slots likely to be stiff.

Good to see the worst kept secret being confirmed about the Clubhouse. That's a big statement of intent from my perspective and hopefully those who have previously expressed a preference to LHR/LGW on here over MAN by virtue of a lack of Clubhouse might now reconsider for future flights.

Plus the Clubhouse is going to have a spa!

3 - clubhouse confirmed.

At last, awesome news!

Plus the Clubhouse is going to have a spa!

That makes it sound very promising. I was wondering how you know such details (if you can divulge such things)?