Fuel Shortages (or not)?

So many click bait stories out there and I can't be bothered clicking on them.
Is there a genuine fear flights will be canceled due to shortage of fuel?

If not shortages, then the price of jet fuel alone might force the hand of some airlines if they haven’t hedged the cost of fuel.

There’s already reports of some airlines (KLM, Lufthansa, Air Transat to name three) already cutting flights this summer. I suspect those for the chop are either marginal/unprofitable flights or those on routes where there’s already multiple frequencies.

I just had a look at Virgin's latest annual report and the airline is 50% fuel hedged for the next 12 months, and 25% for the next 18 months. So in the near team they can take the hit. But long term, it may become a problem. Although VS has an aggressive fleet renewal strategy with 4 more A330 NEO's due this year and another 7 due in 2027. So it's in a better place than most European airlines. Although I think they would probably wish they'd have been 70% fuel hatched over the next 12 months given the volatile fuel market.

To answer my own question now I've had a chance to read and digest, it seems there will be some cancellations but these are more likely to be short-haul flights and airlines using it as an excuse to ditch less economic flights.

Seems that if you're on a popular long-haul flight, they'll find the fuel for you.

Nice summary by Simon Calder
https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/ne ... 69337.html

To answer my own question now I've had a chance to read and digest, it seems there will be some cancellations but these are more likely to be short-haul flights and airlines using it as an excuse to ditch less economic flights.

Seems that if you're on a popular long-haul flight, they'll find the fuel for you.

Nice summary by Simon Calder
https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/ne ... 69337.html

I guess you can also add any long-haul flights that carry cargo as being safe as that's where airlines can make lots of money and even the main reason why certain routes exist. Anything that allows the aircraft to be 'tanked' with enough fuel to fly there and back are probably also safe too, especially if there's shortages elsewhere, or even tech stops to refuel in places where supply is less of an issue.

I'd suspect that the US routes will mostly be safe as there is no jet fuel shortage there at all.

Asian routes are the ones I would wager are most at-risk, given some countries are nearly entirely supplied through hormuz.

Going by recent comments from easyJet and Ryanair, UK and Europe appear they will be OK this summer which is hopefully good news for anybody travelling domestically or closer to home. I suspected that might be the case given it’s gone all quiet in recent weeks.

I can’t speak for other parts of the world though. I’d be nervous if I was booked to go to Asia given their documented shortages.

I still think if flights do get canned, it’ll be on the basis of jet fuel cost combined with the flights in question being unprofitable. Guess it also depends how much fuel has been hedged at pre-March 2026 costs.