Aer Lingus considering closing their MAN base- now confirmed

[mitchja]

Things don’t sound good at MAN as RTE is reporting EI are considering closing their MAN base which means an end of all their long-haul flights from MAN.

Not sure if this is a good or bad sign for VS ops at MAN?

I would say that for VS it is very good news (sorry Aer Lingus). It means VS can set the price of direct MAN-MCO-MAN flights unless another entrant enters the route.

I’d say it’s important to consider they are currently in dispute with cabin crew over pay and conditions. A deal was rejected and there has been strike action for the last few weeks. It does make you wonder how much of this is a threat to try and get their way once you put that into context, particularly as the operation was reportedly profitable.

I think there’s also a capacity cap at DUB too even with the second runway, so it might not be as simple as redeploying them out of DUB.

As for VS, I’d say it’s good from their perspective in that they will have the market to themselves unless somebody else comes along. I’d say it’s not so good for passengers as it could mean higher fares. No guarantees VS will take advantage of this either in terms of capacity or routes.

EDIT: There’s also this the other day following a recent incident on a BGI-MAN flight. I’d go as far as saying that industrial relations are not great: https://www.irishpost.com/news/aer-ling ... UHdb3tHYnQ

[mitchja]

Will be interesting to see how this pans out for VS’ position in MAN

Either double down and take advantage of the monopoly or continue the status quo in anticipation of an additional competitor (Norse maybe?)

https://travelweekly.co.uk/news/aer-lin ... -operation

Hope they dont leave competition is good
Food in economy and business better than Virgin and if its the old virgin a330 or 787 the seat is better on Aer lingus

Hope they dont leave competition is good
Food in economy and business better than Virgin and if its the old virgin a330 or 787 the seat is better on Aer lingus

Virgin don’t operate 787 at MAN; only airbus.
Good news that all A330 should be retired by end 2027 or earlier.
So MAN will most likely operate A350/A339

This could also be a negotiating ploy of course, Aer Lingus cabin crew have been striking over pay disparities in November

The timing perhaps seems a little too convenient?

I wonder what input IAG will have over this? BA (London Airways) will all but certainly never do long-haul from MAN. So IAG use Aer Lingus to put a thorn in Virgin's backside and stop them having a lucrative monopoly on MCO from MAN.

That said, I am unsure how lucrative MCO is nowadays. Back in the pre-pandemic days, it was quite common to see 5 Virgin 747's parked up at MCO. Now, some days there are only two flights, on smaller aircraft. Orlando is certainly not cheap like it used to be (then again, nothing is over here either). Having said that, Upper Class has always been full on the flights I have done from MAN to MCO, even when on a high-J config A350.

I wonder if it's an indicator of how challenging it is to have a Long Haul base at MAN.

[mitchja]

I wonder if it's an indicator of how challenging it is to have a Long Haul base at MAN.

I suspect this is the main reason for this and also one of the reasons why VS have not further expended / cut back on plans for their ops at MAN. There's been a few recent announcements about a couple of US carriers starting EDI services again next year - nothing to/from MAN though. Scotland clearly has a bigger draw for US customers compared to MAN.

Both UA and AA have also never returned to MAN since they both dropped MAN during COVID.

The other thing that's not helped EI is probably their poor brand recognition in the UK.

As I said, I suspect some of this is down to the industrial relations dispute they’re in with the unions. Who knows whether they’re bluffing or are serious or it’s already a fait accompli what’s going to happen next? If they end up closing the base and blame the unions, that probably says a lot about Aer Lingus more than anything. The way fellow IAG carrier BA handled their disputes with cabin crew in recent years is still quite fresh in the mind.

AA withdrew a lot of aircraft during COVID that are yet to be fully replaced, not helped by late deliveries from Boeing. They have started taking delivery of A321XLR’s which look like they will do what AA used to use 757s and 767s on medium/long-haul-wise, so maybe they might re-launch MAN-PHL or MAN-JFK once they have more.

UA is baffling as they seem to have swerved MAN up to now and we’re talking it up just weeks before the first lockdown, but adding other routes across Europe since the including to Tenerife! Like AA, they have A321XLRs on order, so I wonder if they will look again once they start taking delivery.

I wonder what input IAG will have over this? BA (London Airways) will all but certainly never do long-haul from MAN. So IAG use Aer Lingus to put a thorn in Virgin's backside and stop them having a lucrative monopoly on MCO from MAN.

That said, I am unsure how lucrative MCO is nowadays. Back in the pre-pandemic days, it was quite common to see 5 Virgin 747's parked up at MCO. Now, some days there are only two flights, on smaller aircraft. Orlando is certainly not cheap like it used to be (then again, nothing is over here either). Having said that, Upper Class has always been full on the flights I have done from MAN to MCO, even when on a high-J config A350.

Perhaps that’s a clue and the various factors over the last decade such as cost is why Florida isn’t as appealing to the masses as it once was. Wasn’t there a third VS LGW-MCO flight at one point?

I’d be very interested to see what passenger numbers are like to Florida now versus 2019, not just from MAN either.

I wonder if it's an indicator of how challenging it is to have a Long Haul base at MAN.

Maybe, but if you look at where the long-haul growth at MAN has been post-COVID it’s for destinations in Asia, not North America.

Perhaps a legitimate question is why, up to now, VS and EI have not looked east whilst Asian carriers have entered the MAN market from various Asian cities and are seemingly making a success of it (admittedly not based, but that’s not the point)? And why do Emirates send three A380s a day to MAN with reports claiming they have the slots to add a fourth daily frequency?

I also think that the rapid increase in cost of a vacation to the Mouse House has potentially put a dampener on UK families visiting Orlando regularly which hasn't helped VS UK > MCO.

It is constantly making the rounds here in the US about how WDW is becoming increasingly unaffordable for middle-income families and even Disney's own stock market reports indicate attendance being relatively flat over the year but income per guest up dramatically as they chase the high spending guests leaving behind the once every 3-5 years families with them being forced to a singular "once in a lifetime" trip.

Finding non-USA routes that could work for VS from MAN would surely be the key for expanding the base.

I also think that the rapid increase in cost of a vacation to the Mouse House has potentially put a dampener on UK families visiting Orlando regularly which hasn't helped VS UK > MCO.

It is constantly making the rounds here in the US about how WDW is becoming increasingly unaffordable for middle-income families and even Disney's own stock market reports indicate attendance being relatively flat over the year but income per guest up dramatically as they chase the high spending guests leaving behind the once every 3-5 years families with them being forced to a singular "once in a lifetime" trip.

Finding non-USA routes that could work for VS from MAN would surely be the key for expanding the base.

I'm firmly of the mindset that the days where it was affordable to do the Florida parks frequently (i.e. annually, every two years or even biannual for some) are over for more and more families. There was a thread over on the Dibb asking people to share costs of upcoming trips and, bearing in mind these are families and likely in school holidays, the costs quoted were eye-watering.

As for non-USA routes from MAN, I think CUN would be worth a go seeing they're back serving it from LHR, as well as MBJ once Jamaica is back on its feet post-Melissa. DEL/BOM I think they missed the opportunity to do so now IndiGo are on the route. If HKT does well out of LHR it might be worth looking at BKK from MAN as there's a lot of traffic that have to connect elsewhere, but it might not be high-yielding.

[mitchja]

Something I have noticed recently is that VS are using a high 44 x J seat config A350 for the VS73 MAN>MCO flight. Both DOT and LUX have been used. I wonder if that’s based on demand or just because that’s all VS has got available?

Another issue with MAN seems to be been created with all the airline moves (everyone except Ryanair have now moved into T2) is traffic congestion which is starting to creep in. Apparently one day last week the dropping off traffic for T2 was backed-up as far back as the M56 because most pax are now departing from the same terminal

The new BA T2 arrivals bussing process also sounds miserable and time consuming as well as people are reporting being forced to sit and wait on busses >30mins whilst waiting for the arrivals hall to clear as they can’t mix domestic and international pax. There’s an ever increasing thread about MAN BA ops on FT.

All the extra premium cabin pax are now using the same 2 x lounges (Escape or 1903) so there's now extra pressure on those until this new 'premium' lounge actually opens. EK are also now using those lounges until their own lounge finally opens as well.

In all honesty MAN sounds like an even more of a nightmare now so I’m not rushing back to fly to/from MAN any time soon.

[mitchja]

Another market indicator worth mentioning. DL have announced yesterday that they won't be returning to LGW next year and are canning their JFK>LGW route. BA also ceased their LGW>JFK route back in October.

Another issue with MAN seems to be been created with all the airline moves (everyone except Ryanair have now moved into T2) is traffic congestion which is starting to creep in. Apparently one day last week the dropping off traffic for T2 was backed-up as far back as the M56 because most pax are now departing from the same terminal

The new BA T2 arrivals bussing process also sounds miserable and time consuming as well as people are reporting being forced to sit and wait on busses >30mins whilst waiting for the arrivals hall to clear as they can’t mix domestic and international pax. There’s an ever increasing thread about MAN BA ops on FT.

Have they not built a dedicated entrance for domestic/Common Travel Area arrivals so that they bypass immigration and go straight to the baggage claim hall? T1 and T3 certainly had those.

I can believe the crowds claims. When you look at the grand redevelopment plans from a decade ago to where we’ve ended up, it’s been watered down and “value engineered”. I certainly didn’t envisage keeping part of T1 in use specifically as the new check-in area for T3. It makes you wonder whether this is going to bite?

Then again, I can’t think of many terminals in the UK that are well designed and capable of handling the crowds expected of it.

Obviously I don’t like to see anyone lose their job but Aer Lingus operation at MAN is just a carbon copy of VS. If Aer Lingus flew to BOS ORD and MIA they would make some serious money. 1 because these destinations are served by VS. 2 all these airports are big AA hubs so the feed would be huge. Plus since AA have pretty much abandoned MAN it would give AA a soft launcher back into MAN.

The difference between the DUB base cabin crew and the MAN is disgusting almost an £9.000 different so I don’t blame the unions for striking. But competition is good for customers so we don’t want to see Aer Lingus. UK disappear..

[mitchja]

EI are not having much luck at MAN as their JFK flight was cancelled multiple times last week and over this weekend due to the A/C going tech. Looks like VS mopped up a lot of those pax, however, VS don't op their MAN>JFK flight every day.

[mitchja]

Have they not built a dedicated entrance for domestic/Common Travel Area arrivals so that they bypass immigration and go straight to the baggage claim hall? T1 and T3 certainly had those.

It's currently in-progress and due to start being used early next year, however, whilst the incoming aircraft currently arrives onto a full terminal stand with a jet bridge, arriving pax still cannot enter the terminal building at all and are directed down the gate stairs onto busses and then taken to what will be a new domestic none-immigration controlled arrivals area.

This new arrivals area will not change the aircraft arrivals process using the terminal stairs + bus process as there is zero domestic / international pax segregation within the terminal building. Still a miserable experience for pax IMHO!

https://www.aerlingus.com/support/disru ... l-updates/

Not an official confirmation as such, but as they’ve gone public by announcing flights beyond the end of March are off sale, you can reasonably conclude this is it for the MAN base.

Thoughts are with all the staff affected by this. They have been treated badly in recent months.

This will no doubt mean prices with VS ex-MAN will go through the roof this summer in the absence of competition besides TUI to Florida and Barbados.

That's a real shame thoughts are with the cabin crew and staff affected. Especially in a World Cup year you would think Aer Lingus would have no problem filling those planes. Prices will rise as people and travel agents re book people onto the available seats. The only thing I can see VS doing is upping the capacity with the low J A350 on most routes, they have 5 of them so it would not be hard to put them on JFK and ATL. Only down side is less Upper Class capacity for these of us tying to use points and vouchers. Would love to know everyone's thoughts.

[mitchja]

First and foremost, VS need to fly MAN to ATL and JFK DAILY. Why on earth they don't fly daily is utter madness and one of the reasons why I no longer fly VS from MAN (even though it's only an hour drive from where I live).

Would the B789's A/C be a better fit for MAN ops with them offering slightly less Premium seats and a little more economy seats?

A333 = 31J / 48W / 185Y
B789 = 31J / 35W / 192Y

VS did briefly op B789's from MAN during COVID as I flew MAN>BGI and back on a B789 in September 2021.

This is where the VS fleet plan for the next few years is a hindrance. I think once planned withdrawals and deliveries are accounted for, it leaves VS with no slack in the fleet for network growth. Any new destinations or frequency increases are likely to be made possible by cutbacks elsewhere (e.g the temporary increases to Bengaluru by using resources from Montego Bay, though I know why VS aren’t operating there at usual capacity levels). It also limits their scope for being agile to make opportunistic moves such as responding to this development by increasing frequencies.

It will be interesting to see whether the new CEO intends to lead VS to consolidating what they have already or looks at options to grow the network. I accept the losses over the years, uncertain economic outlook and COVID-era support likely limits what they can and can’t do.

100% James ATL and JFK should be daily for the onward connections alone, I suspect they drop down to 5 days a week in the winter to send an A330 to BGI 2 to 3 times a week from MAN. Premium is always full on most of the flights I have done to ATL and MCO so they would be leaving money on the table if they used the 787 from MAN. Plus I'm pretty sure the pilot base for the 787 is LHR.

VS needs 5 aircraft minimum at MAN this summer. They operate 3 Aircraft in the winter for reference.
Aer Lingus had 2 A330's based at MAN for BGI, MCO and JFK.

[mitchja]

Also, for every EDI VS departure means one less MAN departure as all VS do is take the A/C and crew off one of the MAN rotations.