A new Iceland Ash Threat

But Tontybear, between us all we know EVERYTHING :w , it's just I don't know that answer.

R-P

This sequence clearly shows an initial thick cloud of ash.
But the volcano does not seem to continue to feed it.

The infra-red images do tend to have areas masked by cloud but these do seem to show that the high level densities are decreasing.
That is hopeful!

The key to flight disruptions is going to be the weather.
The jet stream forecasts are for continuing high winds across the UK - there is a brief period when they come down from Iceland around Wed. night/Thursday but by Sunday a strong flow from the West should clear the ash away.
(Use the nudge arrows to change the day on the above site)

This is very different from the previous episode when we had ash-filled air sitting on top of the UK - this time we have strong winds helping to regularly clear it away.

This is still the best forecast - but it's only for 24hours. Got to keep checking it.
R-P : we should know about Wednesday tomorrow.

Roxy Popsy stop getting your knickers in a twist v(

I am checked in now and the worst that can happen is that I have to spend an extra week or so on my beach

I am off to soak up the evening rays and watch the sunset now and I will keep v-flyer posted from MCO tomorrow........

Sunshine 8D

I am checked in now and the worst that can happen is that I have to spend an extra week or so on my beach

That's the best attitude to have!!! y) y)

Although the latest advisory charts show ash over most of the UK, the key guidance comes from the ash concentration graphics.
It is only the red zone in the latter which has what are considered to be dangerous levels - so no sign of problems for the southern half of UK airports within the 24hr forecast. y)

The CAA update details the new procedures and mentions that airlines have submitted, and have had accepted, safety cases that will allow flight in all but the red zone (4mg/m3)

In effect they no longer "close airspace" but instead pass the buck to airlines - they will however refuse to accept airline SRAs that are unsafe in their view - and that appears to be the 4mg or above level. Semantics!

To move this away from cancelled flights for a few moments, this photo is absolutely stunning.

Brilliant picture! y)

Bill - thank you for your regular updates, very useful!

Will continue to track and I do hope the jet stream movements change for my flight on Thursday to keep the ash away from LHR!

One of the best ways to update yourself is to follow Heathrow Airport on Twitter.

No doubt the leather elbow patched health and safety police are busy in their bunker plotting another completely pointless blanket closure of airspace! The worrying thing is that people buy into this rubbish! Most probably daily mail readers! The media are whipping up the story again... Which in turn makes the health and safety police even more on edge.
Just glad I just got back from LA and haven't got to go through the same BS as last year before my trip.

Latest updates on the volcano are that plume heights are now 5-9km in height. This is about the same as Eyjaf. was. However only 10% of the ash is "fine" compared to 20% for Eyjaf.
The amount of ash is roughly related to the plume height so we can see that there is a substantial reduction there compared to the original 17km high output.

Another major difference is the wind speed - through the 2010 eruption winds were very light - imagine the ash feeding into a 10knot wind compared to feeding into a 140knot jet stream!
Resulting density is going to be much lower.
The windspeeds over Iceland have been light but are now picking up and are now forecast to be very strong on Thursday - that will dilute the ash - but it is still going to come down our way!
Hopefully the concentration will be low enough to allow airlines to consider flight safe under the new rules.

These factors can be seen on the latest density map near to Iceland.

The other big difference is the atmosphere is considerably more energetic than during the 2010 eruption - the jet stream is moving around - there is greater turbulence. In effect the ash is being stirred up so concentrations are diluted. That will mean that any disruption should be short lived - not the weeks that happened in 2010. But it may re-occur.

After complaining bitterly about "closure" of airspace, Ryanair have been flying an aircraft in circles over Scotland this morning.
BA then followed.
No doubt they are thinking of PR saying they have tested the area and found it "safe".

However the Ryanair flight could be seen on radar at 32,000ft.
The BA flight was seen to be at 28,000ft.

And the Danger Area - up to FL200 only - 20,000ft! Doohh!

Michael O'Leary just on BBC News.

Any sense he was talking simply over written by being downright offensive. Not sure what he is trying to achieve except put peoples backs up.

Some pretty pictures from the academics.

Latest updates on the volcano are that plume heights are now 5-9km in height. This is about the same as Eyjaf. was. However only 10% of the ash is "fine" compared to 20% for Eyjaf.
The amount of ash is roughly related to the plume height so we can see that there is a substantial reduction there compared to the original 17km high output.

Another major difference is the wind speed - through the 2010 eruption winds were very light - imagine the ash feeding into a 10knot wind compared to feeding into a 140knot jet stream!
Resulting density is going to be much lower.
The windspeeds over Iceland have been light but are now picking up and are now forecast to be very strong on Thursday - that will dilute the ash - but it is still going to come down our way!
Hopefully the concentration will be low enough to allow airlines to consider flight safe under the new rules.

These factors can be seen on the latest density map near to Iceland.

The other big difference is the atmosphere is considerably more energetic than during the 2010 eruption - the jet stream is moving around - there is greater turbulence. In effect the ash is being stirred up so concentrations are diluted. That will mean that any disruption should be short lived - not the weeks that happened in 2010. But it may re-occur.

We now have the first forecast for Thursday.

The eruption has decreased considerably and the red zone at midnight is well out of UK airspace. The ash to the west is predicted to be of low concentration so not a concern.

There is still a possibility of more coming down later so worth keeping an eye on the forecasts (next one out after 1pm) but certainly looking good at the moment. The earthquakes around the volcano have virtually ceased so no indication of any increases soon. y)

There is still a possibility of more coming down later so worth keeping an eye on the forecasts (next one out after 1pm) but certainly looking good at the moment. The earthquakes around the volcano have virtually ceased so no indication of any increases soon. y)

Ahhh so what a lot of hullabaloo. Glad it gave the daily rags something to fret over, that isn't Ryan Giggs (ooops, am I allowed to say that now).

[honey lamb]

Loved this bit in today's Irish Examiner in a Q&A section about the volcanic ash

Q: Have Irish airlines been getting exemptions?

A: Ryanair is doing all in its power but so far, no go

Q: How is Michael O'Leary taking that?

A: He's erupting with as much ferocity as Grimsvotn itself.

) ) )

Loved this bit in today's Irish Examiner in a Q&A section about the volcanic ash

Q: Have Irish airlines been getting exemptions?

A: Ryanair is doing all in its power but so far, no go

Q: How is Michael O'Leary taking that?

A: He's erupting with as much ferocity as Grimsvotn itself.

) ) )

y) y) y)

We now have the first forecast for Thursday.

The eruption has decreased considerably and the red zone at midnight is well out of UK airspace. The ash to the west is predicted to be of low concentration so not a concern.

There is still a possibility of more coming down later so worth keeping an eye on the forecasts (next one out after 1pm) but certainly looking good at the moment. The earthquakes around the volcano have virtually ceased so no indication of any increases soon. y)

Bill - thanks for your comments on this. I've been keeping an eye out and things do look promising for my EWR flight tomorrow evening, fingers remain crossed! :$

Michael O'Leary just on BBC News.

Any sense he was talking simply over written by being downright offensive. Not sure what he is trying to achieve except put peoples backs up.

He puts my back up even by just hearing his name.... B)