Travel Calendar - when cheapest to travel

Hi all,

Registered yesterday, posted a few replies, hope to get round to getting a membership pack soon.... but now the reason I originally registered for [:p]

I travel to the US fairly regularly, and choose to do so by Virgin. I am lucky enough to be fairly flexible in the times I can choose to travel. What I would really like to be able to do is know when the cheap travel periods are. I know there are regular sales, and I have seen a couple of posts that explain about deadlines for some fares, but somewhere there must be a calendar that says when the various fare steps are. The VS web site doesn't help much - I would love to see a feature like the great EasyJet one that allows you to see fares for a week around your chosen date, but maybe even wider. I know you can choose to let the booking site find a cheaper slot for you, but that can be rather tedious, and doens't actually do what I want. And yes, I know that in principle they are based on supply and demand, like holidays etc., but that doesn't help much either.

Any clues?[?]

Thanks, Andrew

Originally posted by GrinningJackanapes
The "flexible date for lower fare" function on the VS website is CoMPLETELY ineffective. I don't even know what the hell it is telling me when it shows me dates -- are these lower? By how much? Half the time when I click these identified dates the bloody fare comes up the same.

Welcome to the site and I am looking forward to hearing how people respond to this topic as it would be great to have some insight.

GJ

The fares minefield is quite literally a minefield [V] I have looked at my favourite route LGW/MCO and it is quite incredible how often the fares change. Dont use these prices as gospel but I looked at Q class in the Y cabin to demonstrate how often it changes - all examples here are based on midweek travel before taxes.

Now until 20 Aug £680.00
21 Aug - 31 Aug £660.00
01 sep - 19 Oct £502.00
20 Oct - 22 Oct £532.00 (school half term)
23 Oct - 31 Oct £502.00
01 Nov - 15 Dec £347.00
16 Dec - 24 Dec £660.00 (christmas) - nearly doubles in price!!
25 Dec - 28 Mar £347.00

Even a couple of days where they know demand is high will push those fares up [?]

[Decker]

Originally posted by Jimmy Mc

The fares minefield is quite literally a minefield [V]

Ermm well, no, not really. Losing a limb is a tad different than losing a tenner...[B)]

Generally is pretty easy to guess, take the School Holidays as High and the periods just after and before as Mid.

Cheapest times tend to be Feb (depending on half term), May/June, Oct/Nov... however it will depend on routes.
Asia is most expensive around Chinese New Year... also HKG is very busy and expensive during October due to the trade shows that happen there.
Public holidays in one country can affect things (ie Jul 4th in the US).
Foreign variations in school holidays will also affect ex UK Traffic. Also remember the Southern Hemisphere winter/summer peaks.

One of the advantages of using a travel agent is they should know exactly when the fare levels go up and down and can more easily advise you when to be flexible rather than an internet booking engine.

Originally posted by Jimmy Mc

Originally posted by GrinningJackanapes
Even a couple of days where they know demand is high will push those fares up [?]

Lol yeah, i believe that's called running a business!!!;)

I dont want to use an agent. I want to be able to see the best fares better on VS website without the following cycle:-

:start
1 'choose a new date'
2 oops it forgot all your preferences, reenter the same info,
3 please wait,
4 no availability on those dates
goto start

It really does drive me bonkers.

Wow! Six replies in an hour! Thanks all!

I agree totally with mysteryflyer about the online booking services, and I REALLY cano't remember the last time I used a travel agent! I do remember WHY I don't use a travel agent though - they screwed it up last time.

I apologise for swearing on this forum, but the EasyJet site, and most other LCC's have a way better online booking system than VS, and they generally have WAY more seats/routes. I booked my summer hols to the folks in France in about 10 minutes with EasyJet, including umming and aahing about the various dates because of cost/convenience. The last flight I took on VS (10 days ago) probably took me a couple of hours in total time. The VS site is SO slow.

Appreciate the comments from 'the inside' (thanks V-BEN) but as I tried to explain in my original posting, I understand that much, but it is handy to know exactly when the various price bands start and stop.

Think of it this way - I have a travel budget - the more economic I can be on the same routes means the more I can travel. That will actually make VS more money, because I should be able to use up more of my budget - 4 flights at £600 = £2400 of my £2750 budget. 5 flights at £550 = £2750 - my whole budget. Not real sums, but you get the idea.

Andrew

[preiffer]

Originally posted by aacross
Think of it this way - I have a travel budget - the more economic I can be on the same routes means the more I can travel. That will actually make VS more money, because I should be able to use up more of my budget - 4 flights at £600 = £2400 of my £2750 budget. 5 flights at £550 = £2750 - my whole budget. Not real sums, but you get the idea.

Nice theory, BUT:

4 x flights = 4 x fuel, 4 x flight costs for the airline.

5 x flights = 5 x fuel, 5 x flight costs for the airline.

You're not exactly doing them a favour by saving yourself money...

Originally posted by preiffer
You're not exactly doing them a favour by saving yourself money...

Although I am not sure that is something that I would find myself worrying about. As was said earlier, making as much profit as possible is just business, but getting the best bargains is just consumerism.

Originally posted by preiffer

Originally posted by aacross
Think of it this way - I have a travel budget - the more economic I can be on the same routes means the more I can travel. That will actually make VS more money, because I should be able to use up more of my budget - 4 flights at £600 = £2400 of my £2750 budget. 5 flights at £550 = £2750 - my whole budget. Not real sums, but you get the idea.

Nice theory, BUT:

4 x flights = 4 x fuel, 4 x flight costs for the airline.

5 x flights = 5 x fuel, 5 x flight costs for the airline.

You're not exactly doing them a favour by saving yourself money...

I thought someone would come up with this arguement. But as the plane will be flying anyway (there is sufficient demand to schedule it), then my filling a seat on it adds to the revenue. If I didn't fill the seat, no revenue. OK, I know it is not an exact science, but I am pretty sure VS would rather have me occupying 5 seats than 4, even if at a slightly lower cost. Pretty sure most of their seats are revenue positive

Andrew

You mention travel to the U.S.A.

In my case when travelling to Boston and Orlando I've found that November is the cheapest followed by January, February, and March.

Straight after Christmas is also a good time for low fares.

Once you've got FC miles these costs can be reduced further, or my case used against PE and UC tickets using the Miles Plus Money options.

I couldn't normally afford these options without the miles ![:#]

Originally posted by Decker

Originally posted by Jimmy Mc

The fares minefield is quite literally a minefield [V]

Ermm well, no, not really. Losing a limb is a tad different than losing a tenner...[B)]

You try telling my clients that - LOL [:p] They already feel some fares cost them an arm and a leg

Originally posted by mysteryflyer
I dont want to use an agent. I want to be able to see the best fares better on VS website without the following cycle:-

:start
1 'choose a new date'
2 oops it forgot all your preferences, reenter the same info,
3 please wait,
4 no availability on those dates
goto start

It really does drive me bonkers.

The website you're looking for is http://www.ba.com [:p]

Don't think the beancounters at VS like the idea of you being able to easily find cheap flights... I do agree with you though, when I was booking flights on VS for my parents to Barbados last year, it must have taken 20 different permutations to work out what was available. I was looking for Z's and in the end with the cheapest option came out at a Z out and a D back.

I find it better to use Expertflyer to find the fare information and availability in those buckets and then phone VS direct.

David.

I have to say that the BA price finder is pretty good you can get a month's worth of pricing in one go and pick the best days to travel. Now you say this isn't in Virgin's best interest, but perhaps it is. If everyone can see that flying on a particular wednesday is cheaper than any other time (preseumably because loads are light) then this can be sold and the aircraft will not fly empty making a loss.

Paul

The biggest problem with the BA Price Finder Calendar option is it creates enormous strain on the airlines IT Infastructure.

Its all based on the number of messages which are sent and returned by the Global Distribution System into the 'Host' system of the airline. These messages cost money.

Requesting one flight on one date is one message, if you're returning a months worth of data then thats significantly more information... and it costs more money to get this information sent and received.

With the start of aviation e-commerce airlines have seen the amount of 'messages' or 'hits' to their servers go through the roof. Before the www came along a travel agent would search a couple of options on a couple of airlines and give you a quote... now with one click you can search every possible routing between any Origin and Destination.

Some airlines have actually seen their booking systems come close to melt down because of this, and have had to block some of the more popular web agencies from having 'Direct Access'.

BA have invested ENORMOUS amounts of money in their booking engine, which makes perfect sense as the highest proportion of web based bookings are taken on domestic and short hauls.

Would it make commercial sense for VS to invest this amount of money when as a long haul point to point carrier the returns are likely to be far smaller? I'd guess not at the moment.

It may seem like an insignificant problem but by returning a months worth of fares in one go the cost of any internet booking engine would sky-rocket. This is why you'll find only the most profitable and well developped E-Commerce sites with this option.

BA can do this due to their route network mix and moving away from dealing with the Agency Community, especially on shorthauls and domestics.

Originally posted by p17blo
I have to say that the BA price finder is pretty good you can get a month's worth of pricing in one go and pick the best days to travel. Now you say this isn't in Virgin's best interest, but perhaps it is. If everyone can see that flying on a particular wednesday is cheaper than any other time (preseumably because loads are light) then this can be sold and the aircraft will not fly empty making a loss.

Paul

Paul,

Exactly, it's a good feature for BA as they can juggle prices / fare bucket availability to ensure that ( hopefully ) the daily passenger load is averaged out quite well.

I know it's a bit different for Virgin who don't fly to every destination more than once a day, but the best example would be for New York, whereby you could probably try and book a flight in Y for Thursday next week and come back with a huge variance in cost because of the particular flights you've chosen, but no explanation as to why or offer of an earlier / later flight to save x amount of £.

This is an issue for casual internet shoppers looking at the VS website - if that person is doing a direct comparison on cost between VS and BA, for example, and looking for the best price, they'll go to BA.com, drill down and select the best priced flights for outbound / return, yet on VS.com they could well get a much higher price and not understand why it's more than BA. BA get the customers money....

David.

p.s. the same situation applies to reward seats - BA.com walks all over VS.com by giving a whole months available flights.

I think all the airlines have us by the short and curlys. If you take into account the summer hols when the kids are out of school the price just gets out of control and the airlines are rubbing there hands because they know people will fly cause kids want there holiday. Some of us cant afford to pay the stupid prices they ask so i have to take my kids in school time which i dont like but have no choice if i want my kids to have a holiday. I know im bitching but i think the airlines just take advantage of the holiday periods and sucker us into paying more. The fuel doesnt go up does it so why should the fares

It is really encouraging to see such vigorous debate on this issue, and most interesting! Thanks for all the replies.

I have looked at ExpertFlyer before - maybe I should try their trial offer and see what it is like. May be the answer to my prayers, but frankly I still think the answer lies in VS's own systems.

V-Ben, your points are well taken, but with the greatest of respect, I don't think they hold water. Plenty of airlines offer the type of system I am looking for, especially LCC's. If they can afford it, without going into system meltdown, I'm pretty sure VS can. I'm sorry, I don't know what department you work in, but as an IT consultant myself, who has programmed database systems that search billions of records in double quick time, this is possible! Maybe you are referring to systems such as Sabre (I don't actually know about these agent systems) where information from various airlines is aggregated together? In any event, unless you can convince me otherwise, I just don't buy it. I'd be very happy for you to enlighten me though if I have completely misunderstood.

At the end of the day, Virgin control their prices. And like most airlines, these are calculated on a number of factors, such as supply and demand, time of year etc. Making prices more transparent, and the cheaper prices easier to find, IMHO, can only benefit VS. The BA comparison example is a very good reason why. I know I can get cheaper seats to MIA, even direct from LHR. But I choose to fly Virgin (I actually refused to continue flying BA long before Virgin existed - when they bought my then favourite airline and decimated it - British Caledonian). All I want is a little justification for my loyalty (other than the FC!).

Andrew

Originally posted by aacross
V-Ben, your points are well taken, but with the greatest of respect, I don't think they hold water.
Andrew

Fair enough. I've worked for several airlines in commercial roles and also worked for Worldspan (one of the four main GDS along with Sabre, Galileo and Amadeus).

Airlines booking systems are still based on these pretty old 'legacy' GDSs.

LCCs do not have these systems and have been able to develop much more efficient ways of working their Internet Booking Engines.

Believe me the issue of 'Excess Messages' can have significant effect on airlines (several European carriers such as LH and SK have seen their entire 'Host' Reservations System almost melt down because of the growth of messages they simply were not ready for.).

If you speak to any Travel Agency that owns an Internet Booking Engine (and smaller and smaller agencies are buying IBEs) they'll tell you that their GDSs, Airlines and partners are constantly going on at the moment about the need to reduce 'Excess Messages'. Some of the larger E-commerce sites are being stung with HUGE Excess Message bills by the GDSs (6 figure sums and more).

V-Ben,

Thanks, that is really interesting, and puts things into context. Sorry for appearing to doubt you.

Now, what I don't understand, is why the larger 'legacy' airlines such as VS, LH and SK are not moving (or taking so long to move) to a LCC-type system. I do appreciate there are a significantly larger number of fare types, but when you consider the comparative number of seats sold etc., I would be surprised if the database were significantly more complex for the 'legacies'. As I mentioned earlier, I have been involved in the design of some huge databases, including live gambling, which I am willing to bet are some of the most complex around. So I know it can be done. I guess the fact it hasn't is an indication that there are other reasons why.

However, other carriers I use, such as Air France, have a great system that let you pick from a variety of dates/prices. Not only does it show availability (always good) but also price, including the relativity to the base price, so you can see if you are getting a cheap ticket. It also shows all this information for about 6 days either side of your chosen date. Oh, and it is very quick.

Getting back to my original question, as you seem to know about the booking system, can you tell me if there is a 'fare calendar', or how best to work out the cheaper times to book on VS?

Thanks,

Andrew

Originally posted by aacross
V-Ben,
Andrew

To answer a couple of the points...

1. Why don't traditional airlines move from 'Legacy' GDS based systems? Well that indeed would be an enormous investment. These systems, however old, have been developed over years... they can (generally!) talk to each other over common platforms... an LCC can operate as a single entity. No 'interlining' of tickets. No need to let Travel Agents have access to your availability directly (just let them book over the net).

2. As for the size of these databases... I very much doubt online gambling is in any way as big as the network of 'Hosts' connected by these GDSs... just to give you an idea Worldspan, the smallest of these GDSs (15% share) has a datacentre capable of the following:

Messages processed (peak month) Ð7.68 billion (March 2005)
Messages processed (peak day) Ð5,628 per second (Occured May 31, 2005)
Million Instructions Per Second Installed (MIPS)Ñ37,032 MIPS
Average number of Passenger Name Records in system Ð39.6 million
Available disk storage Ð119.0 Terabytes

And thats just 15% of the market!!!

3. Air France... well thats very similar to the BA situation, as I said for a carrier with a large domestic or short haul operation it is very much worth investing in this kind of Internet Booking technology and taking the extra cost of the running of such a system.

Anyway, time for me to go oh holiday so i'll sign off in a bit... oh and yes I bought my ticket on BA on the web and I chose which days and times to fly to get the cheapest fare by searching their fantastic calendar... so I do agree with you it would be fantastic for VS to have if it were commercially viable!

I'm afraid that topics like this are a fairly recurrent theme around here - mainly that the VS web-booking engine pretty much sucks. It's so inflexible as to be customer-unfriendly, and that's not a good thing in this day & age - especially when other airlines can manage this quite easily. I take on board what V-Ben says about the GDS hits & messages, but there must be some way around this that only takes a little creative thinking from the VS IT dept.

There's so much business to attract by having an easy-to-navigate, easy-to-book, easy-to-use website - anyone in the IT industry can tell you that (hell, I'm sure I'm not alone in judging my first impression of a company by their website). I just don't think VS have quite got that message yet - and I think we've been on about it here for pretty much the whole time I've been a member [ii]

Given that there's no incentive to book online, other than you can see details at any time day or night, I'd much rather speak with a phone operator for half an hour trying to get the exact flight/price/etc... However, with more & more emphasis on online transactions, there are only so many times that one is prepared to go through this.

Cheers

Michael

Well, yes I accept all the points raised. I can see the GDS system is large too - but I'm sure other IT people will back me by saying this is not uncommon. As for the online gambling sites, I'd be willing to wager (;)) that those sites were more active during the football world cup than the airline booking system.

I just think that if VA wants to stay a leading airline with progressive vision, it needs to bite the bullet. It has possibly the worst online booking system I know. As for using the phone, it is not uncommon for me to book my flights long after the phone lines are closed for the day. Which is another good issue - if the web site doesn't get better, more people will book by phone, which will require yet more CS attendants, which will cost more......

Maybe I should take a leaf out of V-Ben's book - if a VA staff member chooses BA over a free/discounted staff ticket.....[}:)]

Andrew

Maybe I should take a leaf out of V-Ben's book - if a VA staff member chooses BA over a free/discounted staff ticket.....[}:)]

Well, if only VS started flying to Barcelona! (or my mates would get married on our route network instead!).