Looks like (but I don't work for VS, so can't be sure) it's a shortage of serviceable LHR 747-400s to 'blame' for this.
From what I can work out, G-VROC came in on the VS20 around 10.30am, and was turned around to work the VS19.
On the 6th, I understand VS19 was 4 hours late.
Remember that they've got G-VHOT out at Filton for 'special paint', and G-VROY stopped for maintenance and paint at KLM Engineering in Amsterdam.
G-VHOT was covering one of the LGW flights (BGI/UVF) for the LGW ship away in AMS, which left LHR down to 4 aircraft, and it looks like G-VWOW has been sent over to take this work, and ROY is still in AMS as of yesterday.
That leaves only *three* LHR configured 747-400s available at LHR, BIG, ROC and FAB. Right now, 5/6, 19/20 and 45/46 are booked on 744, so that's all three aircraft.
(11/12 were also booked on the 744 at weekends, but they have mostly been swapped onto the 346.)
So, if one of those goes tech, there is a flight delay, or one has to be stopped for maintenance, there's an inevitable shortage of aircraft.
Swapping 19/20 to an Airbus at short-notice is non-trivial due to the 2 night stopover on this flight (there will be no rested Airbus flightdeck crew downline to take the return flight).
Quite why HOT didn't get the special paint when it was stopped for work at KLM, or the 744 which followed it for maintenance (WOW) got the paint instead, who knows?
In the past, VS would use downturns to look to pick up good value leases on aircraft.
A lease on a 744 or two might make sense right now, as they have little room for manoeuvre, it seems, and there's the Dreamliner delays to consider.
There's the two ex-Oasis, ex-ANA, 747-400s still up for lease, and these are a really good match for VS existing fleet - GE CF6 engines, MAS 3000 IFE (the platform behind V:Port) already fitted.
They are both fresh from a C-check, of a similar vintage to G-VXLG (1998), and have about 38k hours logged (less than XLG, on about 43k).
Given the market for 744s for freighter conversion is slowing up due to the economic downturn, I can't think why VS couldn't secure a good deal on these two airframes - both have been on the leasing market for about 7 or 8 months now.
Sure, you've got the cost of a cabin refit, but a 5 year deal on these would plug the gap nicely until the Dreamliners start to come online, planned for 2013.
As these two are younger than FAB and HOT, an extended lease could even allow FAB and HOT to be stood down once the 787s arrive, as they will be approaching 20 years old and probably 100k hours by then.
(ANZ have just scrapped ZK-NBS at 20 years and almost 90k hours, and really high cycles.)
Maybe Boeing would do VS a good deal?
Mike
