When do you think Virgin will get thier first A380

Tell me when you think Virgin will get their first A380

I hear it's sometime in 2013!

it arrives when it arrives

Never- it wont arrive!

Another vote for Never.

Iain

2015 sounds about right for VS thinking. They always seem a little slow nowadays ):

It is ideal for the LGW/MAN - MCO routes.
In very rough capacity terms 1x380 = 1x744 + 1x333
There is no advantage to pax in b&s in having two different travel times.

Having 380s in the fleet allows quite a bit of flexibility in booking numbers (380 solo; 744 + 744; 380 + 333; 380 + 744)
A 380 is useful wherever they can expect to currently fill two aircraft - LGW & MAN. I do not see the 380 necessarily completely replacing the 744 - more to augment the current fleet. 333s could also be usefully used to start up or extend routes such as GLA/NCL/EDI/DUB - MCO

It very much depends upon the continued growth in MCO pax numbers - but that is the one sector that has not been hit hard by economic downturn.

When recovery is more certain there could easily be substantial growth and it does not seem to make sense to run 2 or 3 expensive 744s a day on one b&s route. The 380 is also a symbol that will draw extra business but as recent events have shown it will need initial problems sorted.

VS said back in 2006 when they were originally delaying from 2009 to 2013: "by then, the A380 will have proved its "innovative design" over several years in customer service."

The recent delay to 2015 is just keeping pace with the A380 production delays and "proving" the aircraft.

Of course another alternative could be the 748...

Bill, you are more hopeful than I, with another vote for never. BUT, if VS cancels the LGW 744 refits next year I'll take that as a sign that they might actually come.

Slinky, Cannot see the refits being cancelled.
Another 4 years without major refit? :0

The mouse pax would leave in droves!

The current load factors are high 85-90% across all the 744s - the MCO runs must be turning away bookings.

It makes much more sense to increase capacity. If you can fill a 380, which is cheaper to run - a 380 or two 333s?

But then lately, are VS just too over cautious?

Another vote for never here. Surely the 748 would have been a better bet! The way things are at the moment Airbus will be lucky to be trading in 2015!

Another vote for never here. Surely the 748 would have been a better bet! The way things are at the moment Airbus will be lucky to be trading in 2015!

Ah, another Boeing fan boy/girl.

Of course another alternative could be the 748...

Another vote for never here. Surely the 748 would have been a better bet! The way things are at the moment Airbus will be lucky to be trading in 2015!

With only 25 commercial orders so far for the 748 Intercontinental (20 from LH and 5 from KE) something tells me there is a reason carriers are being turned off by it. Bill do you have any clue?

The current load factors are high 85-90% across all the 744s - the MCO runs must be turning away bookings.

Are you sure? I know it was November but it was two days before Thanksgiving and my MCO flight was only at 220 POB. That is rather low, Y was very sparse. I know the route fluctuates hugely, highlighted by the sometimes double daily sometimes one daily structure at the moment.

Certainly the Mouse passengers are getting more than fed up with the service on VS. Yes we know its only one route but I was rather surprised by just how many passengers on my recent flight were saying things along the lines of how they felt VS offered better service ex LHR and didnt care about LGW. Maybe, just maybe, the message boards are finally getting through to the majority.

Sorry Will - My "current" is misleading - I was quoting the latest release of load stats., Sept. due out tommorrow.

We will not have release of Nov'10 for a couple of months.
Nov.'09 was 85% for the VS 744 fleet. Quite high

[Scrooge]

Anything above an average of 80% is good for an airline (yields matter more of course) .

What I would actually like to see VS do is step away from the 380 (turn it into more 330 orders) and go for used 744's, the price on those has really fallen through the floor, SQ and JL are both getting rid of theirs, now yes they will not be as efficient as the 388, but they will be a heck of a lot cheaper to purchase/lease and that will more than make up for the % the 744 loses out on the 388 and 748 on.

Actually, while I am thinking about it, I am wondering how many 773's are out there, VS doesn't need the ER or LR to do LGW-MCO runs. they can carry roughly the same number of pax as a 744 and they are cheaper to run.

Another vote for never here. Surely the 748 would have been a better bet! The way things are at the moment Airbus will be lucky to be trading in 2015!

Why on earth do you say that. Both Airbus and Boeing have backlog orders of over 3,000 planes. And if anything, Boeing is really suffering at the moment with massive cost overruns, compensation claims, delayed income, on the 787. Apart from the A400M, Airbus is running relatively smoothly.

Why will VS not take the A380? Well, VS will need at least 6 in a sub fleet to justify the tooling and skilling up. The plane is fantastic but simply too big for VS apart from for one route at peak times. One route LGW-MCO. It's very expensive. In leisure config even a A380 would not substitute for LHR-JFK (think how many seats will be on it, perhaps 600+ with 24 J?

Really, I think VS is holding on to see whether the A350-1000 is flying by 2015 / 16 and will convert the A380 orders into A350s.

Agree about the A350-1000.

I do think that of the available 'in the sky' aircraft out there at the moment, the B777-300ER would be the most efficient for LGW-MCO, because you'd probably get nigh on the same number of seats for lower overall costs versus the 747.

One thing I would say is, how many people out there would deliberately select VS to fly on the A380? I reckon (particularly for B&S routes) it'd be far more than one might imagine.

Slinky,

The reason I say that is exactly what you have stated, the A380 is simply to bloody big for VS, I get the feeling the order was placed at a time when VS were trying to keep up with the Jones' as it were.

The 748 is based on a tried and trusted aircraft which seems to have served VS well in the past. I can understand some other comments earlier as well about leasing some discarded 744's rather than run with the 380's.

Concentrate on what works well for the Company, keep them up to date cabin wise and keep the passengers happy. If VS don't update the LGW/MAN PE cabins next year I can see people jumping ship to the dark side once they have completed the update in WTP across their fleet next year.

Just my opinion mind you, there are much wiser heads on here than me.

Could VS operate the 388 with a stop - e.g. LHR to SFO then onwards to LAX?

Unfortunate really that it wouldn't be able to operate to LAS, because they could probably fill it on that route?

Could VS operate the 388 with a stop - e.g. LHR to SFO then onwards to LAX?

Who would want to fly to LAX with a stop in SFO when they could fly direct?

Plus on the logistics side - all passengers and crew would have to clear US immigration and customs at first point of US entry which would make LHR-LAX via SFO take forever!

The 748 is based on a tried and trusted aircraft which seems to have served VS well in the past. I can understand some other comments earlier as well about leasing some discarded 744's rather than run with the 380's.

I can't see 748s either - the passenger version is a complete failure, it is based on a 40 year old design, and sadly I think it looks it now. The economics are not as good as those forecast for next generation aircraft either. So that would be a very expensive proposition to keep around for 20 years to spread the capex.

I think we'll see more big twin jets for VS - as it gets used to them with A333, then the A350 or even possibly some 777s in the interim ...