Best booking strategy?

Hello chaps,

Lurked for ages and finally found a need to sign up, so hello!

I fly VS for my regular US holidays and usually snag what I consider to be a decent deal - last was into JFK and out of MIA for £399 in October 11.

This time I'm looking at San Francisco (Originally it was Vancouver but VS's prices into VC seem to be several hundred more than SFO, so the saving pays for a nice trip in the East Coast).

I'd like to go in September but it's currently £720ish for an Economy return. This seems expensive - I've never paid this much for a flight, ever, despite being as far afield as Australia. Indeed, in October the same fare is £549 which whilst pricey seems acceptable.

Other carriers have flights from £449 but these are indirect and I prefer VS anyway.

So... whats my best booking strategy? I often hear people say book as far in advance as you can but in my experience this has never worked out - it always gets cheaper later on, presumably as they release the flights have unsold capacity.

Is £720 likely the best I can get for SFO in September or if I sit tight for a few months do you think we'll see movement towards the October prices? September isn't exactly peak period - I did LAX with VS in September before and it was no more expensive than October then.

If it's never going to get better than £720 then I guess I'll need to reconsider and pick another destination, just seems like poor value when for the same dates Emirates will fly me to Australia for a similar fare which represents better value. I'm a bit value obsessed - I don't mind a £700+ airfare but I want to get off a plane a long, long way further than SFO if I'm paying that.

I appreciate I've just taken 400 words to ask how long a piece of string is, but there we go!

Hi Goatflyer, welcome to V-Flyer.

Your economy fare is made up of 12 different fares codes.

Starting with a full price, fully flexible Y right through to the cheapest very restricted economy fare O

Y B R L U M E Q V X N O (in order - dearest first, cheapest last)

It could be that on the dates you have chosen, the cheapest fare codes are gone and you are being quoted one of the more expensive, but slightly more flexible codes.

It could also be that only some of the codes have been released but that's unlikely.

Whether it's worth waiting, that's a choice only you can make but there will be more advise from other members.

Enjoy,

David

Thanks for the reply - useful information. Logic would dictate it starts cheap and gets more expensive as time approaches but in my experience this doesn't seem to happen. Indeed, last month it was significantly more than £549 in October to SFO - so the price there has dropped.

When I did LAX I booked at what I thought was a good price only for it to be offered at £70 less a month later! No complaints, I booked when I was happy, but it challenges the accepted convention that it starts cheap and then gets more expensive I guess.

There are a few big events in San Francisco in September and that may be distorting the prices. In addition the Americas Cup is on the middle two weeks adding to demand.

What are airlines like BA, UA and AA charging as tat will be a fairer comparison than comparing September with October.

They are all pretty similar - BA are identical to VS, AA are about 20 quid cheaper.

The reason I used October as a comparison was because it's not too dissimilar seasonally and crucially I was using it as expectation management. Obviously I'm not going to get a £399 fare but if its £549 in October it means at least they can run a flight at a profit at that level therefore it isn't out of the question a flight sale might see £549 in Sep, too.

It seems to be quite blanket - as soon as you hit 1st October, bang, its almost 200 quid cheaper with BA, VS etc.

Almost as if they've not released the lower fares for that month yet..

£725 does seem to be the lowest Y fare for SFO in Sep - both on VS and BA.

Will it come down? Maybe yes, maybe no. That's not much help I know but it's in the airlines' interests to make sure we don't know because if we did, why would anyone pay the higher fare?

One thing's more or less for sure: both airlines will certainly have at least one sale between now and then, but of course there's no guarantee that the dates and route you want will be included.

At the end of the day, if the demand's there and people are willing to pay, the airlines will charge higher fares. They'll reduce them if they need to fill the seats but sadly only they know if that's the case.

So if you can get to Oz for the same money, and that appeals, go for it if you're happy in the knowledge you're getting a good deal. In fact, if EK really are doing LHR-SYD for £725 I'd bite their hand off. It's showing over £900 to me in mid-Sep.

It's such a difficult one isn't it! Tricky.

EK are doing LHR to Perth for £780 in Sep (I've already done the East).

Thanks for the reply - useful information. Logic would dictate it starts cheap and gets more expensive as time approaches but in my experience this doesn't seem to happen. Indeed, last month it was significantly more than £549 in October to SFO - so the price there has dropped.

Erm, perhaps that's because there is a seat sale on to SFO at the moment - so highly likely it was more last month.

Outside of sale situations it is much more likely that fares rise over time as the lower fare classes are booked up. Not the other way.

Thanks for the reply - useful information. Logic would dictate it starts cheap and gets more expensive as time approaches but in my experience this doesn't seem to happen. Indeed, last month it was significantly more than £549 in October to SFO - so the price there has dropped.

Erm, perhaps that's because there is a seat sale on to SFO at the moment - so highly likely it was more last month.

Good spot! Hadn't even noticed that. Do they ever extend the available date range?

Outside of sale situations it is much more likely that fares rise over time as the lower fare classes are booked up. Not the other way.

True but I'm quite happy to wait to be 'inside a sale situation'

Thinking back its always been during a sale that I've booked before.

I note it says 'Due to the nature of the market, it is possible that flight fares may be available at a cheaper price at a later date.' in the T&C's...

Tricky one!
Virgin are selling from £695 - I presume the £720 you quote is weekend supplement.
September is what, six months away?

My gut feeling is that there will be a sale soon. If not, there's the other option of indirect flights as a last resort.

I noticed the VS website now proudly advertises:

Fares available until 18 April 2013:

London Heathrow

San Francisco

£549

18 Aug 13 - 20 Oct 13

But every set of dates I try in September comes back at £746?

Infact, using the Toolbox on this website reveals that there is not a single flight at this price during this time period.

Any ideas?

17th - 22nd October is £549

4th - 16th returns £569

That seems beyond cheeky - I appreciate not every fare within the travel window would be £549 but I think its reasonable to expect a random spread of fares within the 2.5 month window given, rather than just availability in the last 3 days!

This means the availability of the £549 fare is even lower than it was when they were advertising the 1st Oct onwards date range. Whats the point in extending the date range if they've not actually offered any sale fares within the extended part?

This continues to frustrate. New sale anounced today, bookable until 2nd May.

London to SFO £659 18 Aug 13 - 30 Sep 13.

I can't find a single £659 flight for any set of dates within that travel period.

Just like last time they advertised a sale fare within that travel period

Out of curiosity I looked into this, and I think you're right - the best I could find was £701. Not a bad fare, mind...

This continues to frustrate. New sale anounced today, bookable until 2nd May.

London to SFO £659 18 Aug 13 - 30 Sep 13.

I can't find a single £659 flight for any set of dates within that travel period.

Just like last time they advertised a sale fare within that travel period

I think this is because they group destinations together.

So will work our a range of fares to West Coast, in certain class but won't check availability.