What Kind of Lunacy is This? (2014 flight prices)

As some of you have read from my recent trip report, not long back from a successful Orlando trip with the kids and curiosity has got the better of me so started looking at prices for next year. Only they don't make any sense whatsoever.

This year, GLA-MCO on 27 July cost me £3500 so that was roughly £440 per person per sector. Looking at next year for the Scottish school holidays (29 June - 11 Aug) I can't get it less than £660 per sector, in many cases its cheaper to fly PE than it is EC.

That works out at £5800 for 2 adults and 3 kids. :0

I tweeted VS and they said its supply and demand, but they've got a 747 on the route next year which I thought would help. And I had 285 pax on my flight this year surely they've not already sold 400 seats 51 weeks in advance? (I can't get a load check from Flightstats).

By comparison I can fly with BA from GLA but via LGW for £3085. I could even do BA premium economy for £1000 less than VS want for EC direct. I'd rather fly direct due to the kids, if I go via LGW I'd go BA due to the thru ticketing (and luggage).

Is this just an initial spike due to the flights just going on the system and will they eventually settle down?

[Neil]

Surely those flight dates aren't even released yet for direct bookings with VS? Is this through an agent?

Direct via VS website up until 18 July. Can't get them via VH. I thought they went up 12 months in advance so was actually surprised I couldn't get part of August.

Direct via VS website up until 18 July. Can't get them via VH. I thought they went up 12 months in advance so was actually surprised I couldn't get part of August.

No it's 11 months in advance.

No it's 11 months in advance.

Ah right, thanks. I'll see if it settles down in a few weeks, just worried if I didn't act early I'd miss the cheap seats!

Just did a dummy booking for 5th/19th July next year and it is giving me B and R fare codes for Y and S & W for PE- so the most expensive fares.

So yes give it a few weeks and they'll have loaded the cheaper fares too,

My own observation is that there are rarely any good prices at the 11 month mark. I've been looking for some well priced Ks (or is it Hs these days?) to the caribbean next easter and Dubai for the Whitsun week, but no joy so far. Not an expert on MCO for certain, but historically there tend to be sale periods around the Christmas period that get better prices for the places I head to. All depends on what BA are doing really

As I mentioned in my recent TR I do think VS may be overccoking it slightly.

My return flight from MCO to LGW in P/E was only about 75% full (if that). The FSM said the outbound was the same.

I have never seen a summer MCO flight with such a light load.

I know the new P/E is a great product, but I was seeing fares of £1,400 pp. Family of 4 or 5 , I will let you do the maths.

I guess only time will tell and as the OP stated 'Supply & Demand' will ultimately be the leveller.

Ah but my maths tells me if I were VS I'd rather sell 30 seats at £1400 each than 40 at £800, £900 or even £1000.

A flight that's 75% full but with higher ticket prices is more profitable than one that's 100% full but with cheap fares.

Of course it's not as simple as that but just because a flight isn't full doesn't mean it's making VS less money than one that is. It's the average yield per passenger that counts.

[Scrooge]

Which shows yet again that a full flight does not mean a profitable flight,it's all about those yields.

Anyways, yes wait a few weeks, keep an eye on the fares, as the lower buckets get loaded into the system the prices should come down.

Ah but my maths tells me if I were VS I'd rather sell 30 seats at £1400 each than 40 at £800, £900 or even £1000.

A flight that's 75% full but with higher ticket prices is more profitable than one that's 100% full but with cheap fares.

Of course it's not as simple as that but just because a flight isn't full doesn't mean it's making VS less money than one that is. It's the average yield per passenger that counts.

There's also the share of the market too, (think of it as a cake) which doesn't mean fill the plane at any price but allows VS to see how much of the "cake" they have compared to their competitors.

Or, if VS filled 75% of the plane at £1000 a head, how much more money would they have made if they'd also filled the last 25% too at say £750 a head.

I met someone on Friday who studied pricing and revenue in detail and it's a fascinating area.

He reckons that in a few years time we VS et al will be offering personal pricing.

@sealink
Personal pricing ? That's interesting. How would that work ? Based on the prices you as an individual are prepared to pay from previous tickets purchased ?

Well, work already seems to get a company rate that is significantly lower than web price on some routes (but we're sending 5-20 pax/week in PE to the destination in question when this is case).

I will comment at moment the Delta deal is not helping as much as hoped with me flying VS and partners. Next 2 trips priced at £1k more for US than BA.

@sealink
Personal pricing ? That's interesting. How would that work ? Based on the prices you as an individual are prepared to pay from previous tickets purchased ?

Yes but with more tailored pricing / offers such as

- fly at an unpopular flight time rather than your preferred one and save

- how flexible are you - fly Thursday instead of Friday/Saturday and save

Mind those are existing features (to a degree) of the existing pricing model but could be beefed up and made more explicit.

It could also even mean say being offered a cash saving for only taking 2 bags in UC rather than 3, or 1 in PE rather than 2.

Or for say Ag members of FC being offered paid CH entry as part of the booking process. Or the reverse that a UC/AU passenger gets a discount NOT to use the CH (remember not all passengers do use the CH)

You could even have a bidding system where you make an offer to several airlines to fly me to X on Y dates in Z cabin and see what comes back - on a similar basis to priceline and hotel rooms. Sometimes you will get lucky but other times not - you might not end up on your favourite airline but might save some cash.

There is also the reverse of this where you buy a flight on one airline but then get other airlines to make you a reverse offer to fly with them. This is how backbid.com works for hotels in the US - make a refundable booking with one hotel, enter the details and others may make you a better offer.

I once booked a holiday where the hotel was allocated on arrival at the airport and I took the relevant pages from the brochure and my holiday was considerably cheaper than for the
people who specifically booked the same hotel.

So none of this is really new just with the technology now available it makes it easier to make offers.

I nearly fell of my chair a couple of months ago, I was pricing up to go to Orlando for Easter next year, my dates came up (for economy) at over £1600 using Thomson and over £1900 for Virgin Atlantic.... Even I draw the line at those mad mad prices.

The airlines are getting greedy now they all know eventually someone will pay it as there is no competition now days what with all the mergers and bankruptcies.

I nearly fell of my chair a couple of months ago, I was pricing up to go to Orlando for Easter next year, my dates came up (for economy) at over £1600 using Thomson and over £1900 for Virgin Atlantic.... Even I draw the line at those mad mad prices.

The airlines are getting greedy now they all know eventually someone will pay it as there is no competition now days what with all the mergers and bankruptcies.

...And that's versus my £800 in PE at easter for Antigua. No wonder I scratch my head as to why anyone would want to go visit an oversized mouse

And along the same theme

I understand the laws of supply and demand and economics and all that stuff but I still think airlines rip you off at Christmas.

My preferred carrier Emirates is trying to charge me nearly £900 more for a December/January round trip in Y to OZ than I am paying in October/November for the same flight numbers. I am sure it will come down but Christmas isn't one of those times when I am prepared to wait and engage in brinkmanship. So they are not going to get my business.

I did a search and found the most incredible deal via travel agents. I have picked up an Economy ticket to and fro OZ on VS on the dates I wanted ...not just for a good price but actually over £700 less than the price quoted for the same flights (vs200/201) on the Virgin site.

I had no idea such deals existed. So I suggest everybody checks elsewhere before booking direct with any airline (although the agent couldn't offer much of a deal on the EK flights).

PS I did have several moments of panic while I wondered whether I had just handed my credit card details to a Russian scammer masquerading as Last Minute but no, my flights are available via Manage My Booking on the VS site.

PHEW

yes it does pay to shop around - and lets face it for most people they are more interested in a cheap flight than a more expensive but upgradable one

but I am more shocked that you are flying in Y !

And I booked BA club world return to MCO for about £2050 each next Easter...they caught this early bird, anyway. So, BA club for £150 more than Thompson economy, now let me think...

Hi All

not sure how accurate this is, but from our own past experiences.. when ever we try to be first to book our seats during the first few weeks one is allowed too...we find the prices are somewhat inflated (in fact very inflated). Soon after though they settle down to quite a reasonable price and some better deal appear for the M+M offers. I guess if those are the only dates you can fly and one needs early confirmation then you are at the mercy of VA price setters (bless them all!)

Cloudscudder

Holiday companies have been handed a good deal by the Government for this next year which is maybe why prices are being overcooked in the school holidays. Headteachers are not allowed this coming school year to 'authorise' any family holidays in school time whatsoever. Parents will be fined £60 each per child for taking their child away from school for holidays.

And I booked BA club world return to MCO for about £2050 each next Easter...they caught this early bird, anyway. So, BA club for £150 more than Thompson economy, now let me think...

£450 more than Thomson and £150 more than Virgin... But your point is still valid none the less.

And I booked BA club world return to MCO for about £2050 each next Easter...they caught this early bird, anyway. So, BA club for £150 more than Thompson economy, now let me think...

Similar experience £2k each including accommodation to MCO in CW. Had to ring and check hotel and BA after booking because I didn't trust price!!!

Thank you for all the comments, to paraphrase "calm down dear".

I'll stop jumping the gun and give it a few weeks. Funny how the VS Glasgow prices 'blip' but VS Man/LGW and BA prices don't, but that might be an effect of the different school holidays.

I nearly fell of my chair a couple of months ago, I was pricing up to go to Orlando for Easter next year, my dates came up (for economy) at over £1600 using Thomson and over £1900 for Virgin Atlantic.... Even I draw the line at those mad mad prices.

The airlines are getting greedy now they all know eventually someone will pay it as there is no competition now days what with all the mergers and bankruptcies.

I too have been looking around for a decent priced airfares to Orlando for Easter 2014. I agree prices currently being quoted are jaw-dropping and quite frankly obscene.

Ah but my maths tells me if I were VS I'd rather sell 30 seats at £1400 each than 40 at £800, £900 or even £1000.

A flight that's 75% full but with higher ticket prices is more profitable than one that's 100% full but with cheap fares.

Of course it's not as simple as that but just because a flight isn't full doesn't mean it's making VS less money than one that is. It's the average yield per passenger that counts.

In my opinion maths doesn't come into it. It is cruel and evil to hike the prices up during school holidays.

To underline my arguement.. My suppermarket, my energy supply complanies, my mobile phone network and endless lists of other 'private service providers' do not raise prices for specific times of the year just because of "supply and demand". They too need to make a profit to stay in business. Sainsburys charge me the same price for a packet of burgers whether its December or summer BBQ season ii)

I think its about time a Government investigation is carried out on this evil "over-cooking" of prices. Trading standards should get involved, not many other services would get away with it. The Airlines make rules to suit their selfish profitering motives. Another example is the fuel surcharge. Bleeding parents, grandparents etc dry during the peak school holiday period is horrible & wicked. If I can book a flight to Orlando in March for £520 then the Revenue Management team will have already worked out that there is still a profit on this fare, so how the hell can they justify hiking it up to £1400 a couple of weeks later just because the kids are on holiday. But as has been said here on this forum in the past ...they do it because they can n(

Greed yes ! but they cannot keep going on 50% or 75% loads. If those passengers all paid a full fare maybe the answer would be yes they could cope with smaller loads but lets face it with all the staff discounts or freebies, reward fares and miles upgrades etc etc - well those maths figures certainly do not add up |:)