What Kind of Lunacy is This? (2014 flight prices)

I am going to play devils advocate here.

To start with, supermarket pricing varies wildly but they are experts in hiding it - but not always - as Tesco today found out to their cost. Also, if supermarkets could reduce prices if you give up certain rights (ie - their no-quibble money back guarantee) you'd see certain complications coming in.

Airline pricing is not strictly governed by supply and demand or distance but a vague mixture of all kinds of influential factors. Not least that not everyone is interested in booking flights in 11 months time so airline staff energies will be more focused on more immediate travels. Why show your hand now when you can get a competitor to blink first.

I would also ask "What is the price of a flight?". Just because we find a price obscene does not mean that no one will pay it. That is temperered by market forces - pricing what the market will bear.

I don't think Virgin or most airlines have even thought about what classes and pricing to offer in July 2014, so have just loaded fully flexible fares.

A few points in response to Hev60:

I can assure you energy companies do adjust their pricing seasonally. Every year they announce price rises in the autumn, just in time for winter when we use more gas and electricity. And as Sealink pointed out, supermarkets know every trick in the book and are experts at hiding them.

But there's one big difference between the products sold by energy companies and supermarkets and those sold by airlines: we can't live without power and food, but we can live without flights. In a free market economy it would be quite wrong for government to regulate the price of what is a luxury commodity.

Remember also that the number of seats an airline can offer is strictly limited to the number of planes and slots it has. It can't easily create more capacity at the drop of a hat unlike Tesco who can just buy in more burgers and strawberries when they know it's going to be warm. Basic economics dictate that when you have a product that's in limited supply, you can charge more when demand is greater.

It's all very well accusing airlines of "selfish profiteering" but in actual fact Virgin lost something like £125m last year. But why shouldn't they make a profit? Airlines are not charities or a public service run for the good of the community - they don't owe us anything. They are businesses that need to make a profit to survive and that means selling at the highest price the market can bear. If someone can't or won't pay that price, no-one's forcing them to fly. And of course if enough people won't pay that price, the airline will be forced to bring it down.

I can understand why families constrained to travelling in school holidays feel aggrieved. But it's the same across the travel and leisure industry: cinemas charge more at weekends. Trains cost more at rush hour. It's just the way business works.

The government is right to put a stop to irresponsible parents taking their kids out of school .. but I think the solution to this is to make the school holiday period more flexible.

The other thing that's going on here is taxation. Back in 2006 I think we paid £400 per head to fly from Gatwick to Las Vegas via Northwest Airlines, with a stop in Detroit - in December. The cheapest flight for the same kind of time period on VS' website right now is about £650.

The government is right to put a stop to irresponsible parents taking their kids out of school .. but I think the solution to this is to make the school holiday period more flexible.

I agree wholeheartedly with banning parents from taking their kids out of school just to go on holiday.

Not sure how practical it would be to have "flexitime" school holidays though. To some extent they already are - Scotland, for instance, has earlier summer holidays while in London I think I'm right in saying at least some of the half terms are staggered so half the boroughs have them one week and the other half the next.

But you can't move Easter and Christmas, and while there might be a bit more flexibility with summer holiday dates, too much difference across the country would play havoc with exam timetables etc.

Anyway, will a £60 fine really deter many people from taking their kids out of school? If you're doing it to save potentially hundreds of pounds on a holiday, surely many will just pay the fine and still save a load of cash.

The other thing that's going on here is taxation. Back in 2006 I think we paid £400 per head to fly from Gatwick to Las Vegas via Northwest Airlines, with a stop in Detroit - in December. The cheapest flight for the same kind of time period on VS' website right now is about £650.

That's an increase of £250

In 2006 APD was £20. Now it is £67 (for trips to the US in Y).

An increase of £47. i.e approx 20% of the £250 fare increase.

So who is responsible for the rest? Other than the airport fees it is down to the airlines.

So the bulk of the increase is not tax at all.

Richard Branson and Willie Walsh want people to have the impression that APD is the cause of increased air fares but the reality just does not bear that out.


School Holidays

As to school holidays it was suggested a few weeks ago that schools be free to set their own dates and the idea was soon shot down. What happens if one child goes to school A and their brother goes to School B and they have different holidays??

Either the family goes on split holiday or one child gets taken out of school.

Ditto with a couple who are both teachers and they teach at different schools - how will they get a holiday / spend time together?

The only real flexibility is with Easter but it depends on what date it is.

Sometimes schools have the Easter weekend at the start, some it is in the middle and for others at the end - but that only works for some dates otherwise the term lengths get very distorted. Mind having a fixed Easter would soon sort that out !

Is traveling really not an education in itself?

[Darren Wheeler]

Is traveling really not an education in itself?

Arguable, but stretching that to include '2 weeks at Disney World' might be pushing it...

[Neil]

Is traveling really not an education in itself?

Arguable, but stretching that to include '2 weeks at Disney World' might be pushing it...

A trip 'around the world' at Epcot is far more of a geography lesson than anything I learnt at school 8D

[Darren Wheeler]

Is traveling really not an education in itself?

Arguable, but stretching that to include '2 weeks at Disney World' might be pushing it...

A trip 'around the world' at Epcot is far more of a geography lesson than anything I learnt at school 8D

Especially cuisine-wise.

And throw a whole day on It's a Small World

Is traveling really not an education in itself?

Arguable, but stretching that to include '2 weeks at Disney World' might be pushing it...

A trip 'around the world' at Epcot is far more of a geography lesson than anything I learnt at school 8D

It's also a pretty good lesson in economics from what I remember of the ticket prices, even 25 years ago (which is when I last went)! As for cuisine, I still remember the Rose and Crown's attempt at steak and kidney pie. Probably because I'm still chewing on it... Worse still, it wasn't even an ironic choice of restaurant for me, as my parents has rather 'traditional' views on food, and it was where they really wanted to eat!

[honey lamb]

Is traveling really not an education in itself?

On the rare occasions I took Aer John out of school (usually a couple of days before the end of term and never at the beginning of a school year and famously, the time he qualified to play in the Flying Club Swingers golf competition - and won) the school principal on each occasion both in primary and secondary education, took that view.

A classic example of that is our first trip to the USA which was inside school holidays and took place just before he started secondary school. As part of our itinerary we went to Washington DC and from there to Arlington and JFK's grave. I told him about the assassination and also that of Bobby Kennedy who was buried there and the oft quoted line that everyone remembers where they were when they heard the news. Fast forward to five weeks later and Aer John is in his first history class and the teacher is explaining the concept of history. The class is given the task of going home and asking their parents about a moment in history they experienced. My brave boyo puts up his hand and says, "Sir, I don't need to. We were at JFK's grave in Arlington and my mam was telling me about his assassination and what she was doing when she heard it." "Very good" says the teacher, "and what else can you tell us about being there?" "Sir, she was crying" Gee thanks, son!

The government is right to put a stop to irresponsible parents taking their kids out of school .. .

Seriously... that is one heck of a generalisation but am I the only one to think so ????

Both my son and daughter have in the past taken their kids out of school - and I feel they were in no way "irrespponsible".
In fact one headteacher said that our trip to the Grand Canyon followed by a tour around Yosemite Park was a brilliant educational experience for the children.

The knowledge & information an interested and inquisitive child can get from Epcot in Walt Disney or the marine life information given out at Sea World in Orlando, is something the average teacher would struggle to teach. Orlando is not just about Mickey Mouse.

This July just gone, my grandson spent the first week on an expensive activities holiday which the current school insisted the child go on. Yes perhaps they felt it was invaluable for the lad to climb trees, muck about on rafts, go to theme parks and several swimming pools v(
The second week of July was totally dedicated to sports days one after the other and the third and last week of term was spent messing around in the classroom dressing up in silly clothing and watching videos.
Good honest education .. I think not.
This end of term wind down, after the exams, is understandably common in most schools.

As the school term ended, my son and his family went on their holiday, having paid out over £1500 to start that family vacation within the school break period. Not so sure the same will happen next year, £60 x 2 seems pretty reasonable.

There is absolutely no dispute the Airlines hike up the fares during the school holidays and this common practice is simply mean and evil.
Of course they all need to make a profit but not at the expensive of the minority. Like I said before, if an aircraft can fly over to Orlando & back for £520 in March, then it can do the same during the April Easter school holdays, the whitsun school holidays and for all of July and August.
Increasing fares is pure Greed, Greed, Greed !

[honey lamb]

The government is right to put a stop to irresponsible parents taking their kids out of school .. .

Seriously... that is one heck of a generalisation but am I the only one to think so ????

No. I agree as evinced in my post which was obviously posted as you were crafting yours

Yes honey lamb - I felt a whole lot better after I read your post
I agree with your point also about taking a child out of school during those few days before the end of term, which my own offsprings have done with my grandkids.

My grandson had wonderful information to share with his class mates about his trip to New York. At the age of 11 he did a marvelous power point presentation of his photographs and the knowledge he had gained visiting the city. Same with an Easter trip, during the school term again ): to Boston a few years back. In a history test, he was able to get top marks for a paper relating to the American Revolution - no other kid in the class got near his marks and they were the ones sat in the classroom whilst his "irresponsible parents" took him to Boston!

There is absolutely no dispute the Airlines hike up the fares during the school holidays and this common practice is simply mean and evil.
Of course they all need to make a profit but not at the expensive of the minority. Like I said before, if an aircraft can fly over to Orlando & back for £520 in March, then it can do the same during the April Easter school holdays, the whitsun school holidays and for all of July and August.
Increasing fares is pure Greed, Greed, Greed !

But that full flight at your 'greedy' price might be what enables the 'mean and evil' airline to operate a flight day in day out, week in week out throughout the year - which very often they are required to do or they will lose their airport slots.

And if there is no profit then there will be no flights full stop and the airlines that are left will be able to charge even more.

But it is simple economics - a limited supply with an unlimited demand means the supplier can (and will) increase the price.

..."Sir, I don't need to. We were at JFK's grave in Arlington and my mam was telling me about his assassination and what she was doing when she heard it." "Very good" says the teacher, "and what else can you tell us about being there?" "Sir, she was crying" Gee thanks, son!

Well at least he didn't say 'drinking gin' ! :X :X :X

Sorry tontybear, cant agree with you.
I can see the point you are making but many posts back folk were talking about the lack of 'full' flights over the busy periods.

Personally I think its because of the hiked up prices that many people are just not flying this year in general. I know a family who have regularly gone to Las Vegas every year for the past 10 (I do ask myself why they do it but each to their own!) anyway this is the first August they have not gone - reason was simply they could not afford the fares
My own son went to Europe rather than his annual trip to Florida - reason fares too expensive.
Yes there are people who are paying those exhobitant fares but one heck of alot of folk aren't able to. Another year on financial loss for many airlines, again.

..."Sir, I don't need to. We were at JFK's grave in Arlington and my mam was telling me about his assassination and what she was doing when she heard it." "Very good" says the teacher, "and what else can you tell us about being there?" "Sir, she was crying" Gee thanks, son!

Well at least he didn't say 'drinking gin' ! :X :X :X

Lol
RE pricing - it's a tricky one but at the end of the day if any of you guys or gals owned an airline would you not increase your costs a teeny but during busier periods?
It's business. Demand will be higher so increase the price. If no one has booked to fly to MCO two weeks before the scheduled flight then I bet the prices would drop? As it is people pay the fares.

Increasing fares is pure Greed, Greed, Greed !

Otherwise known as Business, Business, Business.

Train companies charge higher fares at rush hour. Cinemas charge more at weekends. Hotels charge more when it's busy. It's basic economics - when you have a product that's in limited supply, you can charge more when demand is higher. It was always thus.

Sorry, but no-one has the god given right to a holiday. And airlines are not charities or philanthropists. So if someone can't afford a luxury holiday because the air fare's gone up (and any holiday in a country served by VS is a luxury - they don't fly to cheap European destinations), then I'm afraid that's tough. I'd quite like a yacht but I can't afford it so I accept I'll just have to do without.

If VS are charging too much to go to Orlando or Washington or other "educational" destinations, there's always Berlin or Paris or Hastings. Much cheaper and equally educational.

Increasing fares is pure Greed, Greed, Greed !

Otherwise known as Business, Business, Business.

Train companies charge higher fares at rush hour. Cinemas charge more at weekends. Hotels charge more when it's busy. It's basic economics - when you have a product that's in limited supply, you can charge more when demand is higher. It was always thus.

Sorry, but no-one has the god given right to a holiday. And airlines are not charities or philanthropists. So if someone can't afford a luxury holiday because the air fare's gone up (and any holiday in a country served by VS is a luxury - they don't fly to cheap European destinations), then I'm afraid that's tough. I'd quite like a yacht but I can't afford it so I accept I'll just have to do without.

If VS are charging too much to go to Orlando or Washington or other "educational" destinations, there's always Berlin or Paris or Hastings. Much cheaper and equally educational.

Wow, calm down dear this is the v-flyer forum nor a scrap on Facebook. I am not going to continue with this debate as its getting unnecessarily nasty. :0 :0

However as a final comment .. My train fare tonight in the rush hour was the exact same price as yesterday afternoon's at 2pm (not in the rush hour). I took my grandkids to the cinema last Saturday and the prices are standard throughout the whole week. These are facts .. maybe you dont like it but please try to deal with it nicely :w :w :w :w

I'm sorry if that came across as a rant. It wasn't meant to be, it's just what I believe.

Actually a thought has just struck me. Don't VS fares normally go up quite a bit in August, in preparation for the sale that traditionally seems to start around the bank holiday? It's another sales trick - quietly raise prices to an unusually high level for a few weeks, to make the drop seem bigger once the sale starts.

So it may be that this time next week we'll all be wondering what the fuss was about. Although of course sod's law says the particular route and date you want won't be included. And it could be that the new CEO has brought in a new higher fares strategy as a way of returning to profit.

Oh and you're very lucky with your cinema. My local Vue charges £8.85 before 5pm Mon-Fri but £10.40 in the evenings and at weekends. Maybe it's just a London thing. Same with the tube - £2.10 outside rush hour, £2.80 in it.

Train operators do charge more on most routes, and have dozens of fares with availability linked to demand.

The easiest way I think of it is this:

- airlines have a standard price for a seat on a plane. That could be £5000 in First, £3000 in Business and £1000 in Economy.

That's the fare they'd like everyone to pay in a perfect world.

However airlines have competitors, often flying direct on same route, or offering connecting flights, where, for the inconvenience of changing planes, a lower rate may be offered. Then there's fluctuating demand. They know they are not going to get the full fare for every seat.
So they start offering discounted fares to tempt people to fly.
The level of discount from the standard price will vary according forecast demand and then actual demand. Sometime it's a massive discount, sometimes less, sometimes none. Because the airline has a duty to maximize the possible revenue on every seat.

As private companies they are restricted only by what they see their competitors doing and what the market will pay.

And, like it or not, a family not being able to afford a Las Vegas holiday is not a message the government will feel it should respond to.

And most Y fares haven't risen at all in real terms over the last 15 years.

All that said, I do still think airlines are at the stage of loading routes and times for next summer, with fares to follow.

[Neil]

Increasing fares is pure Greed, Greed, Greed !

Otherwise known as Business, Business, Business.

Train companies charge higher fares at rush hour. Cinemas charge more at weekends. Hotels charge more when it's busy. It's basic economics - when you have a product that's in limited supply, you can charge more when demand is higher. It was always thus.

Sorry, but no-one has the god given right to a holiday. And airlines are not charities or philanthropists. So if someone can't afford a luxury holiday because the air fare's gone up (and any holiday in a country served by VS is a luxury - they don't fly to cheap European destinations), then I'm afraid that's tough. I'd quite like a yacht but I can't afford it so I accept I'll just have to do without.

If VS are charging too much to go to Orlando or Washington or other "educational" destinations, there's always Berlin or Paris or Hastings. Much cheaper and equally educational.

I have to say I agree 100% with this.

There are many industries and companies that alter pricing based on the old supply and demand, and why not. These aren't public sector companies, they are companies whose ultimate aim is to make money, if they want to price a holiday at £1000 more in August as opposed to February, it is their choice. Our choice as a consumer is to either pay the price, find someone cheaper (if available) or don't buy.

I'm also very opposed to parents taking kids out of school during term time, but that's a whole different debate.

Neil

Oh and our cinemas also have different pricing, with it being more on evenings/weekends compared to midweek daytimes.

I'm sorry if that came across as a rant.

It really didn't! I agree. History, culture, and education are on our doorstep and you certainly don't need Virgin Atlantic to access them. (Libraries don't increase their prices for summer. ) If the argument is that it is 'evil' to prevent people from learning at, er, Disneyworld, then it just does not convince me!

Same old story isn't it? If you see a price you are willing to pay, grab it. Otherwise don't pay and wait or don't go.

It is gauling that airlines charge more during the holiday periods to catch vacationing families, but that is just business and something you'll either need to accept or not pay.

When I was young, I travelled trans-atlantic once every 2 years if I was lucky; I take the family at least 3 times a year now, and my daughter of 11 no longer has that "buzz" of travel as she is so accustomed to it - my goodness, how things have changed.

A little perspective may be appropriate here.

Flight prices fluctuate hugely for all the reasons people have posted, there seems to be little chance of predicting movement, so set your parameters on what you are willing to pay, check back often, and grab it when you see it.