What can be learnt from flight stats about G availability?

Dear gurus
I've learnt so much from you, can I pick your brains again please?
We booked back in January flights LHR/EWR for Sept, returning Oct. We couldn't be flexible (when can you see Gs around that time?) because it's tied to family events and others flying with us.
So outward is P/E with others and OH thinks we should stick with that but return is overnight on VS2 and we need a couple of Gs. I've reached an age and decrepitude when I'm just not prepared to spend the night sitting up or even reclining!

We've got S fares so no problem upgrading if we can find Gs. I've been dummy booking since January with nothing to show. Yes something may come up, yes we can try at EWR on the day.

Meanwhile what can I deduce (if anything) from flight stats?
It's showing 9s across the board today and the only change is that it started at Z4 and went down to Z2 for a while. At present it's:
J9 C9 D9 I9 Z9, W9, S9 and so on right through to O9.

Any thoughts please?

Not a clue - just bagged my first 2 G's by being polite, nice to a nice lady in upper class sales (premier team I think). Well, we're G outbound, W return from a different airport, and I'll try and switch to G's if they appear over next month or two.

Now it is the daily check that's the fun....

I think the key personally is being flexible. My brief was "any day" out in a month, back 3 weeks later to the UC lady.

I cannot add a scientific formula but our G's were booked 3 months in advance last August. We were flexible but really didn't need to be as there was immense choice. We flew out JFK but back EWR. There were G's on the return for a few weeks after I had booked.

We flew the week of Thanksgiving.

[Neil]

You really can't. All it shows is at the moment the flight is pretty open, but not knowing how the bookings usually work on that route / flight then it's all just guess work. Maybe mist bookings happens at the 2 month mark when the business traveller know their schedules more, maybe it's unlikely to fill up and some G's will be released.

The only thing I know is that trying to understand and work out the release of G's is not easy.

I think eating a change fee or two as a non-gold is part of the fun of booking a milage redemption.

One thing that stands out for me on my regular route (LHR-JNB-LHR) is that availability for every "G" that I have bagged is always out bound on Tuesday or Wednesday
Return always Tuesday or Wednesday as well.
Nothing at weekends.

This works for me as I can move my works schedule/holidays around quite easily.

It's still a black art though!.We are always at the will of the revenue management gods/goddesses.

Paul

Thanks everyone. I've looked at changing to the 46 out of JFK but nothing there either. Normally we can be very flexible and go for whichever dates there are Gs when we book, but this booking was very tied to particular dates.
Monday for the return may not be a good day of the week - we normally fly Tuesdays or Thursdays so perhaps that's influencing the situation too. Back to dummy bookings and thanks for your time.

whiterose - My and work colleagues personal experience is Tuesday, Wed, Thur, Sun are all reasonable UC redemption days. Monday, Friday, Saturday I've personally never seem availability on - but I know they exist, even on the difficult MCO route. A nice v-flyer couple guested us both into Gatwick clubhouse on our last Florida trip - both were flying on mileage redemption in UC.

whiterose - My and work colleagues personal experience is Tuesday, Wed, Thur, Sun are all reasonable UC redemption days. Monday, Friday, Saturday I've personally never seem availability on - but I know they exist, even on the difficult MCO route. A nice v-flyer couple guested us both into Gatwick clubhouse on our last Florida trip - both were flying on mileage redemption in UC.

Thanks Starquake. We don't normally fly back on Mondays and I've been looking at Tue/Wed/Thurs that week and we'll just pay the change fee but nothing doing so far. In fact no Gs after 1 October till November on any day JFK or EWR.

We'll stick with PE on the outward flight on the Saturday - we're flying with family who can't see the point in upgrading (my parenting skills failed there clearly!). PE feels such a comedown after UC but it's a good product provided you don't get the "full-recline throughout the flight including meals" person in front of you as we've been discussing on another thread.

I've just done a dummy miles for UC EWR to LHR and it came up with:



But when I do it, I only check for 1 seat and ring if it's something suitable.

Thing is if I book UC on a redemption - my issue is the wife wants the first seat, and I'm stuck back in PE. Still at least we'd both get the lounge access and she may be able to get me to the bar !

There does seem to be a method revenue management release the seats in - and to be fair the agents on the phone can search FAR better/quicker than you can on the web - and I've personally found can find inventory that doesn't appear on web. Ringing the gold booking line for me is the best way to search.

Does anyone else here wish VS had a "joker" for elite VS pax, like BA do for GGL people. I'm sure for some if they had such a defined system in writing available - they'd be able to push flights VS's way. At moment Golds get no benefits from what I can tell on redemptions, which seams wrong to me (but I suppose does encourage airmiles from Tesco etc).. Personally no use to me though as I'm tied by beancounting rules so can only pick carrier one over another in certain circumstances following a global travel policy set by $dayjob

I've just done a dummy miles for UC EWR to LHR and it came up with:



But when I do it, I only check for 1 seat and ring if it's something suitable.

I'm checking for only one seat but the flights that have come up on your example will be the sparrowfart one at 0715, not the overnight.

Sorry missed that you were overnight. I just picked up on you mentioning no g's at all from 1 Oct.

Fingers crossed it changes.

Thanks marshy for taking such a close interest and trying to help, much appreciated.