IAG / Aer Lingus take over. How will this affect VS

Several new sources reporting that IAG are close to agreeing price with Aer Lingus board. Could this impact on VS with further more slots going to the IAG group at LHR. I wonder if BA are considering routing more aircraft via Dublin to take advantage of US pre clearance and the capacity surplus at DUB.

The biggest thing for BA is that they would be able to remove all their Ireland routes and re-use those slots for long haul. Leaving Are Lingus to continue their routes between Ireland and Heathrow, keeping Irish Gov happy.

The biggest thing for BA is that they would be able to remove all their Ireland routes and re-use those slots for long haul. Leaving Are Lingus to continue their routes between Ireland and Heathrow, keeping Irish Gov happy.

Just as long as BHD remains intact!! Will not be a very happy bunny otherwise.

The biggest thing for BA is that they would be able to remove all their Ireland routes and re-use those slots for long haul. Leaving Are Lingus to continue their routes between Ireland and Heathrow, keeping Irish Gov happy.

I'd hope they'd add business class back into AL, because they don't have that at the moment...

I wonder if BA are considering routing more aircraft via Dublin to take advantage of US pre clearance and the capacity surplus at DUB.

I don't see that happening.

You'd loose any time saving by not clearing in the US by clearing in DUB.

It works for the LCY-SNN-JFK service because there are only 32 pax and the plane has to stop at SNN anyway to refuel but that is less than an hour.

But imagine a 747 flight taking off from LHR then landing in DUB to preclear - it would take a good couple of hours to remove the bags for scanning - so the pax can verify them - and then reloading them.

(And before anyone starts with the 'we should have US pre-clearance at LHR' that's not going to happen either!)

[Darren Wheeler]

I'd expect BA to actually lose slots if EI was bought. I can't see the regulators allowing them to keep the purchased slots and so tighten their grip on LHR further. Probably similar to the BMI slots.

I'd expect BA to actually lose slots if EI was bought. I can't see the regulators allowing them to keep the purchased slots and so tighten their grip on LHR further. Probably similar to the BMI slots.

Good point

What I would do if I were in charge would be

1. just get rid of 1/2 the slots to free up a teeny weeny bit of capacity at LHR

2. Only allow the other half to be used for flights to emerging markets such as Brazil, India and China and for BA to be last in the queue for these.

Hmm, I can't see IAG cutting flights to Dublin, has anyone ever been on one, they're always full when I do. IAG could add capacity but that wouldn't come for a while since BA's fleet at the least is pretty fully utilised.

Over time I could see some changes, but in the near term I think IAG sees two things:
- Aer Lingus is efficient and profitable.
- There's opportunity to increase transatlantic business via Dublin.

I'd expect BA to actually lose slots if EI was bought. I can't see the regulators allowing them to keep the purchased slots and so tighten their grip on LHR further. Probably similar to the BMI slots.

The difference with this deal is that it is IAG buying AL not BA so the regulator wouldn't be table to take slots from BA or IB. AL will continue to trade as an independant company where as BD ceased to exist

[honey lamb]

If the offer is accepted by Aer Lingus, it will be up to the Irish Government, which holds a 25.1% share, to decide whether to accept or reject it.

Aer Lingus has approved the latest offer.

Aer Lingus has approved the latest offer.

Is that just the Board though?

Does the Irish Government had a 'Golden Share' because if so they have the final say no matter how the board votes.

Just as at one point the UK Government held golden shares in a number of privatised companies.

Bad news for the consumer as competition is eroded.

The Aer Lingus board can only recommend the offer. It is for the shareholders decide whether to accept the IAG bid.

IAG will probably have to agree to surrender LHR slots to any willing entrant on the London-Belfast and London-Dublin routes but, based on Little Red, it's unlikely any entrant will be forthcoming.

It's potentially bad news for airlines that rely on EI to provide feed at LHR but, again as per BA and bmi, BA will probably have to agree to provide seats on these flights to these airlines for connecting passengers.

It will be interesting to see how the DUB hub is developed and marketed. It will mean the return of BA (through IAG) to a number of UK airports it has previously exited such as BRS, BHX and NQY.

Does the Irish Government had a 'Golden Share' because if so they have the final say no matter how the board votes.

Just as at one point the UK Government held golden shares in a number of privatised companies.

Yes thats just the board.

Irish Gov had stated in past that they will sell it, as long as no LHR flights are removed from the Aer Lingus network.

Ryanair has also said that they would sell for €2.50 a share.

[honey lamb]

Does the Irish Government had a 'Golden Share' because if so they have the final say no matter how the board votes.

Just as at one point the UK Government held golden shares in a number of privatised companies.

Yes thats just the board.

Irish Gov had stated in past that they will sell it, as long as no LHR flights are removed from the Aer Lingus network.

Ryanair has also said that they would sell for €2.50 a share.

What the government have stated in the past has no bearing on now since there is a different government in power and we're coming up to election year. The Minister for Transport, Tourism and Sport has said the government will give serious consideration to the proposal but it isn't necessarily a shoo-in for IAG. Job security will be a priority as well as the role of Cork and Shannon. Cork is especially vulnerable after DAA reneged on its promise that Cork would be debt-free when it went independent of the DAA.

Will this see an end to the ex-DUB "trick" because Virgin are not going to want to push any incentives the way of BA to feed into their long haul flights?

Will this see an end to the ex-DUB "trick" because Virgin are not going to want to push any incentives the way of BA to feed into their long haul flights?

Why would it? Many other "Ex-EU" trick start point are served by BA, feeding the VS flights? BA and VS have many interline agreements.

What the government have stated in the past has no bearing on now since there is a different government in power and we're coming up to election year. The Minister for Transport, Tourism and Sport has said the government will give serious consideration to the proposal but it isn't necessarily a shoo-in for IAG. Job security will be a priority as well as the role of Cork and Shannon. Cork is especially vulnerable after DAA reneged on its promise that Cork would be debt-free when it went independent of the DAA.

I'm not 100% sure, but I thought the Irish Govs comments on wanting to keep LHR routes have been from the current round of IAG bids, so within the past two months or so.
But of course there will be many other deciding factors, but I can't see them putting up much of a fight.

[honey lamb]

I'm not 100% sure, but I thought the Irish Govs comments on wanting to keep LHR routes have been from the current round of IAG bids, so within the past two months or so.
But of course there will be many other deciding factors, but I can't see them putting up much of a fight.

Hamster, with all due respect, you do not live on a very small island on the very edge of Europe whose only connectivity with that continent is by air or by sea, in some instances using the UK as a landbridge. Why do you think Aer Lingus is the fourth largest carrier in LHR after BA, VS and LH. It's because we need it! We need it to get to London and to other points on the globe not served by EI. True some of the ME airlines are muscling in for the Kangaroo Route but that is a drop in the ocean compared to the connections available at LHR. In addition many of us use LHR to connect to transatlantic services not served from Ireland. Our politicians know this and, if they hope to be re-elected, will put up a fight.

In addition many of us use LHR to connect to transatlantic services not served from Ireland. Our politicians know this and, if they hope to be re-elected, will put up a fight.

I strongly suspect that Mr Walsh and BA know that and recognise that it is in their commercial interests to continue and expand the opportunities to travellers from Ireland. I suspect also that the takeover might also add new transatlantic routes from Dublin - as LHR is so congested, IAG and EI could for example increase the number of routes to the US out of DUB with more connections to UK regional cities. This would be good for all.

[honey lamb]

In addition many of us use LHR to connect to transatlantic services not served from Ireland. Our politicians know this and, if they hope to be re-elected, will put up a fight.

I strongly suspect that Mr Walsh and BA know that and recognise that it is in their commercial interests to continue and expand the opportunities to travellers from Ireland. I suspect also that the takeover might also add new transatlantic routes from Dublin - as LHR is so congested, IAG and EI could for example increase the number of routes to the US out of DUB with more connections to UK regional cities. This would be good for all.

I agree that Willie Walsh would know that. My concern is not the expansion of DUB (which already has a fairly robust link with UK courtesy of Aer Lingus Regional and Stobart Air) but the effect it will have on Cork and Shannon with regard to LHR. And for personal reasons, especially Cork!

Hamster, with all due respect, you do not live on a very small island on the very edge of Europe whose only connectivity with that continent is by air or by sea, in some instances using the UK as a landbridge. Why do you think Aer Lingus is the fourth largest carrier in LHR after BA, VS and LH. It's because we need it! We need it to get to London and to other points on the globe not served by EI. True some of the ME airlines are muscling in for the Kangaroo Route but that is a drop in the ocean compared to the connections available at LHR. In addition many of us use LHR to connect to transatlantic services not served from Ireland. Our politicians know this and, if they hope to be re-elected, will put up a fight.

Sorry, but I'm now confused

I'm saying that the Irish Gov have said that one of the conditions they would seek on a sale is maintaining all Aer Lingus LHR routes?

I did the US pre-clearance bit last year in DUB flying business on El & it was a nightmare, 45 minutes wait(& that was going to the front of the security queue as a priority passenger)!

I will never fall for that one again!

[honey lamb]

I did the US pre-clearance bit last year in DUB flying business on El & it was a nightmare, 45 minutes wait(& that was going to the front of the security queue as a priority passenger)!

I will never fall for that one again!

Gee, thanks! I'm experiencing this myself next week on a DUB-SFO flight

I did the US pre-clearance bit last year in DUB flying business on El & it was a nightmare, 45 minutes wait(& that was going to the front of the security queue as a priority passenger)!

I will never fall for that one again!

Still sounds faster than clearing in US!