VS or BA for LHR to SFO flights / Reward or Cash?

So I have a dilemma on my hands. With new flying club changes I find myself caught in the trap of having nearly enough miles for a MAN-SFO UC next summer, and would have waited for the remaining miles to drop into my account with my November CC spend... but the 13th November looms large and of course I need to book now or face a hike from 100K to 155K.

I can buy the missing miles now, which will cost me about £570. The reward from MAN to SFO will then cost me £1,090 taxes and blah blah blah... so outlay is £1,660 and all my miles gone. The downside of the MAN flights is that my connecting flight from GCI to there is a bit more expensive, need to add an overnight hotel, and of course MAN has no clubhouse!

As an aside, why is there absolutely zero availability from LHR? Is this a deliberate effort by VS to push us reward seat claimants towards MAN?

Back on topic... I can instead book the flights and pay for them with VS, coming in at around £4,400 at the moment, to and from LHR. Or I can go BA first and pay £5,309 on an A380 return from JER, or £5,554 from LHR only.

Okay the BA flight is straight away a lot more expense, but if I have my sums right, I think the Avios and Tier Points would be very generous on this routing. 29,290 Avios per passenger and 250 tier points for JER, 26,790 and 210 for LHR only. I don't have Avios at the moment and can't log in to check this data accurately - does that sound about right to any experienced BA users?

The dilemma is, save the VS points for a trip to NYC in the next year or two... spend hard cash to get going with BA, because the price differential between what I need to spend on VS now and what I would spend on BA is about £3,600, and then use the BA rewards for a couple of gratis European trips?

I'm finding it really tough to decide, because with no ground clubhouse at MAN, the product is purely what you'll get in the UC cabin over the 12 hour flight, and some trip reports are reporting lack of service, you only get things if you ask etc. Is it worth spending more money with Virgin to use up the miles and then say Avios, sorry Adios?

blow your VA miles. Start collecting Avios
if VA is no longer attractive to you to collect, then why sit on them?

Surely UC to SF from MAN is better than UC from LHR to NY?

Spending £3600 to fly BA so you can have a free flight to Europe is not sensible IMO.

i'd say blow you VS miles, is there no other way to get those miles in? can you boost a flight you took in the last 6 months?

The reward redemption prices don't change until January.

As Slimpy says all Reward pricing will apply to bookings on and after the 16th January.

yeah this is from Old at virgin "Finally to confirm the dates of the announced changes: All Earning (Tier Points and Miles) and Miles Plus Money pricing will apply to bookings made on and after 13th November. All Reward Pricing will apply to bookings on and after the 16th January.' so you've got time to get the miles.

Is ten hours on a plane really worth over £5,000? BA First is good but it ain't that good.

Use your miles. That's what they're for. And spend the money on something nice.

That price to LAX in BA F is about double what it can be had for (at times), so I wouldn't say it's good value!

yeah this is from Old at virgin "Finally to confirm the dates of the announced changes: All Earning (Tier Points and Miles) and Miles Plus Money pricing will apply to bookings made on and after 13th November. All Reward Pricing will apply to bookings on and after the 16th January.' so you've got time to get the miles.

Thanks for this information. So to clarify, I can book by 16th January at 100,000 UC reward e/w for 2 people to SFO - even if the flight isn't going to be until August 2017?

If this is the case then I can wait for my miles to drop later this month.

Yes that is correct.