Would you roll the dice or fold? Betting on an UC sale

I don't expect anyone to have any facts for this (although any would be welcome) but I am just curious what people would do in this situation

In the past few years, by the time I have gotten around to buying tickets for a trip to the US (leaving on the 27th of Dec and returning around the 1st or 2nd) there has been an UC sale (usually around Black Friday) that brings the price down (i think to £1500 last year) so that it's not an unreasonable lead from PE or even Econ.

I currently have tickets on hold that would give me PE return (PE on outbound, Econ Classic+upgrade for return) for around £1020/person. If I want them I have to buy them tonight. When I spoke to FC, they said there is loads of availability in UC and PE (although not for miles) but right now the fare is around £2.5K/pp for UC

Just curious what people would do. Would you be risk averse and just by the PE tickets or would you gamble and wait for an assumed fare sale around Black Friday?

I would roll the dice - those seats have historically always fallen as the date gets closer....

What’s the worst thing that could happen?

There is virtually zero business travel over Christmas/New Year so the business-heavy routes like JFK, LAX, IAD, ATL, SFO & BOS will have plenty of spare capacity in J and I’d expect some bargains in the next month.

Leisure-heavy routes like LAS, MIA or MCO - not so much.

Thanks both! Sort of what I am thinking. Hopefully it works out.

I found and booked Upper to SFO for £1700 out 20th back 26th.The advisor in Swansea I booked it with was convinced as I was that it was a mistake fare

Whilst this arguably too late, can’t you just book and then upgrade with cash if the UC fare lowers? We used to do this a lot but I’m not au fait with recent fare restructuring. Granted, there’s a small admin fee but this was always waived when I Britishly explained how ridiculous an admin fee charge is applicable if I’m calling to spend more money with you.

I used to do that too but I asked this time and they said they now charge even when it's an upgrade. Maybe it's because I have an American accent! Anyway Black Friday is almost upon us so fingers crossed!

Hope you held on and can make the most of the current offers!!