Virgin and Flybe in the tree, K-I-S-S-I-N-G...

I think David you are likely to be disappointed.

My reading of the tea leaves is that VS wish to consolidate London flying at Heathrow, with a relief hub at MAN.

I’m sure they’ll keep the beach routes at LGW for as long as they make money on a p2p basis, but if you want to fly from EDI to (say) MJB, the connection will be offered via MAN (or perhaps AMS/CDG).

Yes it’s looking very much like that unfortunately. The other option is Delta to JFK and then connect down but severe weather in the winter makes the connection to and from Orlando very dodgy.

Make Glasgow all year round and give us a decent lounge and that would help as well.

I know there are always a lot of people connecting via BA onto virgin. It would be nice if it were a little more seamless.

Of course EDi to MAN on Flybe and then out on Virgin is always an option. The drive down is fine, it’s the journey home that’s a challenge.

David.

BA are upping their domestic frequency this winter for the first time in years... protecting their ground?

Now Connect has takeoff, I think everyone would like more details, as quickly as possible! One things for sure the FlyBe Network as is will be redrawn.

I think David you are likely to be disappointed.

My reading of the tea leaves is that VS wish to consolidate London flying at Heathrow, with a relief hub at MAN.

I’m sure they’ll keep the beach routes at LGW for as long as they make money on a p2p basis, but if you want to fly from EDI to (say) MJB, the connection will be offered via MAN (or perhaps AMS/CDG).

Yes it’s looking very much like that unfortunately. The other option is Delta to JFK and then connect down but severe weather in the winter makes the connection to and from Orlando very dodgy.

Make Glasgow all year round and give us a decent lounge and that would help as well.

I know there are always a lot of people connecting via BA onto virgin. It would be nice if it were a little more seamless.

Of course EDi to MAN on Flybe and then out on Virgin is always an option. The drive down is fine, it’s the journey home that’s a challenge.

David.

Perhaps an A220 EDI-MAN before connecting onto an A35K to MCO will do the trick!

Lots to happen, including the infrastructure at MAN, but hopefully the intent is there...

Perhaps an A220 EDI-MAN before connecting onto an A35K to MCO will do the trick!

Lots to happen, including the infrastructure at MAN, but hopefully the intent is there...

Haha. You can but dream.

Can’t wait for Manchester plans to be finalised but the Heathrow thing worrys me. The Clubhouse is already rammed and if the long term plan is to consolidate most flights / add more destinations from London Heathrow, it’s gonna be a fight for a seat.

David

That hasn't been my experience. In fact on my last few visits the place has been positively deserted.

[mitchja]

It's going to take a fair amount of work at both MAN and LHR as at both airports, VS & FlyBe are currently in different terminals.

At MAN VS are in T2 with FlyBe in T3 and at LHR VS in T3 with FlyBe in T2.

Is LHR T3 able to deal with arriving & departing domestic flights?

It's going to take a fair amount of work at both MAN and LHR as at both airports, VS & FlyBe are currently in different terminals.

At MAN VS are in T2 with FlyBe in T3 and at LHR VS in T3 with FlyBe in T2.

Is LHR T3 able to deal with arriving & departing domestic flights?

No, only T2 and T5 can handle domestics.

Of course back in the Little Red days, that operated from T1/T2 while mainline VS was in T3 so it’s not an insurmountable problem but I suspect connecting passengers put off by the hassle of changing terminals was one of the reasons why LR never fulfilled its potential and ultimately failed.

Perhaps an A220 EDI-MAN before connecting onto an A35K to MCO will do the trick!

Lots to happen, including the infrastructure at MAN, but hopefully the intent is there...

Haha. You can but dream.

Can’t wait for Manchester plans to be finalised but the Heathrow thing worrys me. The Clubhouse is already rammed and if the long term plan is to consolidate most flights / add more destinations from London Heathrow, it’s gonna be a fight for a seat.

David

Haha - yes indeed!

I’d hope the aspiration is for something not too dissimilar to that, but we should get much more clarity over the coming weeks and months.

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... -sep-2019/

Summary of the routes being scrapped this coming Winter along with aircraft changes to other routes elsewhere. It looks like some of the cuts are linked to them not being profitable, but it also seems linked to a phase out of the E190's from the BE fleet.

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/airlineroute/285398/flybe-network-changes-from-sep-2019/

Summary of the routes being scrapped this coming Winter along with aircraft changes to other routes elsewhere. It looks like some of the cuts are linked to them not being profitable, but it also seems linked to a phase out of the E190's from the BE fleet.

This is based on Flybe stopping Embraer operations from Cardiff, Exeter and Norwich. Which is a shame as they are lovely aircraft. I expect more changes as VS tailor Flybe to suit their network.

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/airlineroute/285398/flybe-network-changes-from-sep-2019/

Summary of the routes being scrapped this coming Winter along with aircraft changes to other routes elsewhere. It looks like some of the cuts are linked to them not being profitable, but it also seems linked to a phase out of the E190's from the BE fleet.

This is based on Flybe stopping Embraer operations from Cardiff, Exeter and Norwich. Which is a shame as they are lovely aircraft. I expect more changes as VS tailor Flybe to suit their network.

I flew on one in the US with jetBlue about 5 years ago, definitely nice aircraft and better than props. The problem is it's the wrong aircraft for Flybe's needs and it was probably a mistake to place such a huge order to begin with. The E170's are a better fit as they offer a modest capacity increase over the Q400's but with the legs to do longer flights such as Malaga and Faro (though to be honest, those sort of destinations are better off left to the likes of easyJet and Ryanair who have the scale to use bigger aircraft on these routes to smaller airports such as CWL and EXT, plus it would be suicidal to go up against them). Either way, the E-Jet's was one of the problems at Flybe and they did well to wiggle out of the rest of the order.

[mitchja]

Being reported on Sky News that Be is in trouble again. Financing requirements are said to "have become more onerous" and they’ve got EY ready as possible administrators. Discussions underway with UK Gov over anything that can be done.

How could this have gone so wrong? Clearly Be and it’s model needs seriously work. Have VS not moved quickly enough to deal with it and cut more aggressively?

Statement issued by Flybe on Twitter:
“Flybe continues to focus on providing great service and connectivity for our customers, to ensure that they can continue to travel as planned. We don’t comment on rumour or speculation.”

[mitchja]

Being reported that it’s the Connect funding element that’s become more onerous than planned.

Just wondering if this is set to become a pre-pack admin which gets bought by Virgin Atlantic in its entirety. Essentially they straight out buy the ‘good’ elements and leave the rest to rot.

I think it’s interesting that we’ve not seen even one plane in Virgin connect livery. Would make sense if they want to put one final bullet in the Flybe brand, pre-pack then very quickly relaunch.

The industry and VS are moving apace. Cyrus Capital Partners is a US investor which doesn’t fit with the recent announcements re Britain’s second flag carrier and wanting it UK owned.

So this isn't going as swimmingly as expected.
I wonder if VS just want to allow a collapse so they can reset staff rates of pay, deals with airports etc.

Flybe 'in rescue talks' with UK government – business live

https://www.theguardian.com/business/li ... iness-live?

So this isn't going as swimmingly as expected.
I wonder if VS just want to allow a collapse so they can reset staff rates of pay, deals with airports etc.

Part of me wouldn't be surprised if this is what may happen. It would allow them to reshape the operation to how they want it more quickly instead of having to deal with legacy issues first, as well as being able to expedite the integration of the VS and BE worlds together. For example, would it seriously have been wise to have a separate head office in Exeter long-term whilst one of its major partners have duplicate operations in Crawley that could do everything?

Regardless, I'm keeping my fingers crossed for all the staff. I can only assume some of Flybe's legacy issues are worse than most of us assumed to be the case.

Have VS not moved quickly enough to deal with it and cut more aggressively?

Connect can't realistically come in and make wholesale changes overnight. Aircraft leases are one thing I can think of that are easier said than done to get out of and is one reason why in previous airline mergers it's taken time for inherited aircraft that are non-standard to exit the fleet. Recall how Thomson Airways (now TUI) retained the ex-First Choice Airbuses for several years post-merger despite Thomson being an all-Boeing airline, and over in the US why the Alaska Airlines will be operating the ex-Virgin America Airbuses for some time to come despite being all-Boeing and put the slogan "Proudly All Boeing" on some of their 737's.

Suggestions in media this afternoon is that Flybe doesn’t have the funds to settle its APD bull hence the approach to the U.K. government.

Suggestions it could go into administration as early as tomorrow if the UK Govt don't agree to APD payment relaxation. Stobart Group and Cyrus Capital are now concerned over the investment. Not surprising given current issues within Stobart Group.

The next few days will be interesting, feel very sorry for the staff and also the team from VS who have, no doubt, been working very hard on this over the last year. IF (and its a big IF) Flybe does go under, will VS call an end to it, or will they look at the assets...

I though that APD payments from passengers were held in escrow rather than in an airlines own bank account as it's not their money.

Just wondering if it did go into administration would VS be given any preferential treatment in buying the assets?

In theory anyone could swoop in, meaning if it were a deliberate act it’s a high stakes game?

I though that APD payments from passengers were held in escrow rather than in an airlines own bank account as it's not their money.

That would suggest fundamental problems with their costs and not getting enough money in if they're having to use money collected on behalf of the government as duties/taxes for other parts of the business.

£106m is an astonishing figure. No wonder governments past and present haven't been willing to reduce/scrap it.

If ADP is scrapped to help write off the debt (almost as if ADP was not charged at all), surely it should get refunded to the passengers who paid it rather than being kept by the airline?

Assuming my understanding of the proposal is correct...

£106m is an astonishing figure. No wonder governments past and present haven't been willing to reduce/scrap it.

I'd certainly rather they spent £100 million on an airline with loads of planes than whatever it was they squandered on a ferry company with no boats!

it is sad news for all the people working for FlyBe, but why could the government not have stepped in and helped Monarch and Thomas Cook

Flybe connects some fairly isolated regions of the British Isles and many of its routes are pretty much the only feasible means of travel that doesn’t involve spending most of the day in a car, bus or train. So seen as a lifeline for businesses and politically it’s in the government’s interests that it survives, however much of an unviable basket case it may be.

Monarch and Thomas Cook just did holiday flights, using an outdated business model. Nice to have, but not essential to the economic well-being of a region when plenty of competitors were already in place to jump in and meet demand.

the point i was making is what is good for the Goose should be good for the Gander