Agreed - very debatable.
Load checks, IMHO, are virtually pointless as they very rarely reflect what’ll actually be the case on your flight on the day. They never take into account staff travel, for instance, so a cabin that looks wide open at T-24 can very easily depart full if there are lots of staff travelling standby (and there can be dozens on popular flights). Similarly, any unforeseen events like weather, cancellations or - like today - strikes on a rival airline can result in lots of last minute rebookings on to your hitherto quiet flight.
Can you use load checks to gauge the likelihood of free op-ups? Maybe, but airline revenue management is pretty sophisticated these days and employs all sorts of complex algorithms and sales techniques to keep them to a minimum.
So treat load checks as a very loose guide only. Expertflyer’s really only worth paying for if you fly a lot and can make use of its additional features.
