Dennis and Heathrow departures this weekend

Is anyone else worried about VS (and other) flight cancellations past around 10 AM on Saturday the 15th, owing to Dennis?

Current wind forecasts are for gusts to 41 kts out of the SSW at 11 AM, and roughly 38 kts of that will be crosswind to runways 27L/R. My understanding is that crosswind limits for the 787-9 are 35 kts. These conditions don't seem to improve (in wind speed or direction) enough to get below that limit until late Sunday night, by the current forecast (when I expect late-night departures to the US west coast aren't possible, given landing hours restrictions at most US west-coast airports).

As it's half-term, I expect Saturday's flights will be heavily booked. Could be a rough period getting everyone rebooked, particularly if conditions preclude departures both Saturday and Sunday.

Here's hoping the current forecast doesn't quite come to pass. Or that I'm misjudging wind limits for takeoff.

Good luck to all traveling out of the UK this weekend!

-Brad

I got G's on VS9 Monday afternoon so hoping it's calmed by then

For what it's worth, the gusts at 12 noon Saturday are now predicted to be 38 kts SSW, of which 35.1 kts are crosswind to runways 27L/R. The actual measured gusts are often a little less than the forecast gusts, and takeoff limit decisions are (I'm told) made on the basis of recent measured gusts, not the worst-case forecast gust. So if the current forecast holds true, it's looking like flights from Heathrow around 11 AM - noon Saturday do stand a chance of taking off.

Fingers crossed for our VS 19 departure!

-Brad

BA is letting passengers on both short- and long-haul flights rebook free of charge, apparently because BA expects disruptions on Saturday.

VS has made no such announcement. I've texted them just now to see if they will be doing anything similar. No reply yet...

-Brad

There is a mechanism in place at LHR re cancellations at LHR when mandated because of weather etc

Just because BA is cancelling flights does not mean VS has to and if VS has to cancel then it is more likely to cancel destination a destination with multiple flights to/from it. If it is not forced to cancel the why should it offer free booking ?.

Just because BA is cancelling flights does not mean VS has to

I of course agree. I didn't mean in any way to suggest VS "has to." I only meant that if weather conditions cause one airline to make cancellations at some airport, there is at least some chance that other airlines operating at the same airport may also need to make cancellations.

(Indeed, VS has canceled the Saturday night LHR - BOS flight...it's not because BA is that VS "has to," but there is surely some chance of correlation between airlines' cancellations when caused by the same bad weather at the same airport.)

If it is not forced to cancel the why should it offer free booking ?

For whatever reason, BA is offering free rebooking to all Saturday passengers--even to those who aren't on canceled flights. Perhaps with the high loads of half-term, BA decided it would be easier to manage the huge number of rebookings that might occur if there are further cancellations only forced at the last moment on Saturday by giving passengers the opportunity to rebook before their departure--I understand BA was offering Friday night travel to some passengers who voluntarily chose to rebook their Saturday departures. Doing this would let BA spread the load of rebooked passengers onto at least a few flights before Saturday, and not push them all onto flights after Saturday (when there may be cancellations on Sunday, too).

I do agree that narrowly viewed from an immediate revenue perspective, not offering free rebooking until flights are forced to cancel may seem best from the airline's perspective--why forego change fees and fare increases? But I can imagine an airline's management and operations team seeing heavy loads at half-term and deciding that spreading passengers over more flights, with the rebooking done over a longer period (starting before Saturday) will lead to less customer dissatisfaction than the extremely long hold times and potential shortening of a family holiday (having to wait a couple days or longer for the next available flight) that could result when only starting to rebook passengers upon forced flight cancellation on Saturday.

I in no way meant to suggest I am "owed" free rebooking by VS in advance of a "forced" cancellation for weather. I only meant that I could see why an airline might choose to offer it (as BA has). And I certainly feel it's in my family's interest for me to ask about rebooking on an earlier flight, if that means beating the wind increase and avoiding losing a day or more of family holiday.

Happily, the TAF for EGLL at the moment suggests winds will be below takeoff limits at 11:40 AM. Fingers still crossed!

-Brad

Dennis gave us a rather bumpy helping hand across the atlantic on VS4 this morning. Not quite record breaking but total flight time from the gate of 5hr 47mins, from take-off only about 5hr 30. Think next time I'd trade in a smooth journey for a bit slower though!

So, in the end, VS 19 took off on time on Saturday morning. A little bumpy during the ascent, but smooth thereafter, and we arrived about half an hour ahead of schedule at SFO (as we often do on this flight).

I hope everyone departing Heathrow and Gatwick this weekend makes it to their destinations as swiftly and comfortably as the weather allows!

-Brad