The Big Volcanic Ash from Iceland Thread

BBC reporting that "several F-16's suffered engine damage after flying through ash cloud"

[Neil]

BBC reporting that "several F-16's suffered engine damage after flying through ash cloud"

These were Finnish air force a/c, and they didn't even know they had flown through the cloud apparently. They release some pics to the press yesterday.

Total difference of facts then the major airlines are reporting from their test flights now though.

Neil

[Darren Wheeler]

BBC reporting that "several F-16's suffered engine damage after flying through ash cloud"

Depends on when and where. The F-16 has a service celling of 60,000'+

I'm guessing that with the problem of people stuck abroad getting worse by the day and all the presure building from airlines and the potential costs of bailing them out, governments will want to start getting things moving along at some point in the near future and the risk assesments will be re-evaluated.

Putting it in pure economic terms if the airlines are estimated to be loosing £100-£200 million a day and the wider business impacts equate to many times that, this will be weighed up against the potential loss of an aircraft.

If you say a Jumbo carries circa 400 people and each one of those is worth circa £1M in compensation to their families you can start to see that at some point the risk of sending planes up becomes a more attractive proposition. Fixed cost of loosing an aircraft Vs Ongoing compensation/support for impacted businesses. Not rocket science really is it.

I reckon we're not far from that point now but as others have said making the decision and getting it wrong will be a painful thing for those individuals concerned. And that's probably what is holding said decision up.

The reality of course is that this can't go on forever simply becuse the world economy isn't capable of doing without air transport without serious world wide economic consequences. So irrelivant of risk we will see planes in the air at some point soon.

If of course a plane does crash because of this then any further airspace closures can be justified as I suspect no one will want to fly so that will change things anyway.

Sort of Catch 22 really but as I've said before in the end I think economics will win the day.

Miopyk 8D

[Bazz]

Found this interesting piece on the BBC website. It explains in simple terms why the ash is so dangerous to jet engines. LINK

This is an interesting "change" from the Met Office.

Do you notice something "wrong" with this prediction....There is a route opening up - just fly over Iceland!

Perhaps this is the political way out - the ash has disappeared!
Current video

Lord Adonis has just said less volcanic activity, analysis going on right now and that "flights could resume tomorrow".

I, on the other hand, have just finished unpacking!!

Mrs V hasn't started packing yet, HDubya. Think she's leaving it until the last minute, rather than going through the depressing experience of taking everything back out of the cases again.

[Bazz]

Sky reporting phased opening of UK airspace from tomorrow with southern England being opened up from 18.00 tomorrow.

It could be that the Met Office have been told to recalibrate their satellite data.

We will then all start flying again - until someone finds some glass in an engine ... and everything stops again.

The seismic activity around Eyjafjallajökull & Ketla is not decreasing though.

[Darren Wheeler]

BBC News ticker is showing

"Ryanair: Level of compensation is unfair"

Somehow I don't think they mean unfair to passengers...

Putting it in pure economic terms if the airlines are estimated to be loosing £100-£200 million a day and the wider business impacts equate to many times that, this will be weighed up against the potential loss of an aircraft.

If you say a Jumbo carries circa 400 people and each one of those is worth circa £1M in compensation to their families you can start to see that at some point the risk of sending planes up becomes a more attractive proposition. Fixed cost of loosing an aircraft Vs Ongoing compensation/support for impacted businesses. Not rocket science really is it.

Miopyk 8D

I may 'pass' on this one. I don't fancy being a crash test dummy and I am sure Mrs S and Miss S would want to live to see another day even if it means economic hardship. I don't have an existentialist view of the world when it comes to my wellbeing. I suppose it would get my son out of his university debt though (every cloud has a silver lining )

So many conflicting stories. BA test flight, but Sky said it didn't go through the cloud (also read that it is impossible to detect this stuff on radar, but not sure about that) then we have the F-16 damage. I would tend to believe the F-16 damage as they have no vested interest. BA want / need to get things moving again.

Aeroflot still flying? Isn't this the airline that has planes virtually held togeher by duck tape. Health & Safety (and I do normally hate that industry) isnot at the forefront of Aeroflots agenda.

Scottish airspace opens from 7am tomorrow.

[Darren Wheeler]

***Breaking News***

NATS: Scotish airspace will reopen from 07:00 tomorrow (Tuesday).

No word yet on English airspace..

Edit

Area defined as north of Teeside and Blackpool.

This is the latest NATs statement;

Statement on Icelandic volcanic eruption: Monday April 19, 1530

The volcanic eruption has reduced and the volcano is not currently emitting ash to altitudes that will affect the UK. Assuming there are no further significant ash emissions we are now looking at a continuously improving situation.

Based on the latest information from the Met Office, NATS advises that the restrictions currently in place across UK controlled airspace will remain in place until 0700 (local time) tomorrow, Tuesday.

From 0700 (local time) tomorrow, Tuesday, Scottish airspace will be open, and south to a line between Teesside and Blackpool. Mainland Scottish airports will be open.

This is a dynamic and changing situation and is therefore difficult to forecast beyond 0700 local; however, the latest Met Office advice is that the contaminated area will continue to move south with the possibility that restrictions to airspace above England and Wales, including the London area, may be lifted later tomorrow (Tuesday).

We will continue to monitor Met Office information and review our arrangements in line with that. We will advise further arrangements at approximately 2100 (local time), today.

It is now for airports and airlines to decide how best to utilise this opportunity. Passengers should contact their airlines to find out how this will affect their travel plans.

So many conflicting stories. BA test flight, but Sky said it didn't go through the cloud (also read that it is impossible to detect this stuff on radar, but not sure about that) then we have the F-16 damage. I would tend to believe the F-16 damage as they have no vested interest. BA want / need to get things moving again.

BA flew the Jumbo from ground up to 40,000 feet and found no difference to normal operations. No one is suggesting that any aircraft flies through the volcano plume or cloud - has anyone seen a volcano ash cloud in the clear blue skies over Britain these last few days?

The Finnish F16 could have flown through the actual cloud - we're not privy to their locations and it's not likely that they'll be released because they may have been on NATO air defense ops. For all we know they were flying above Iceland but we never will.

At this moment I can see about three dozen aircraft flying in Europe in what our NATS believes is unsafe air. No problems reported. As I said, I think this is completely over egged.

Aeroflot still flying? Isn't this the airline that has planes virtually held togeher by duck tape. Health & Safety (and I do normally hate that industry) isnot at the forefront of Aeroflots agenda.

No, Aeroflot flies a modern fleet of largely Airbuses and Boeings. Aeroflot has been flying continually with no problems reported.


Magic isn't it if all the supposed ash suddenly disappears tomorrow :w .

Just heard on Sky News that Scottish airspace is open from tomorrow morning the Midlands is open from Lunchtime and southern airspace is open from tomorrow at 6pm....I fly on Monday 26th so fingers crossed...good luck people xx

Blackpool again!

Is NCL going to get some transatlantic traffic?

It looks as though someone has changed the rules! oo)

It looks as though someone has changed the rules! oo)

Or common sense within safety guidelines has returned. It's a shame that it didn't happen sooner - seems to me that airlines themselves caused this to happen and if they didn't, the bureaucrats would still be sitting in front of their computers saying no!

Damn though, I have a customer project I really needed to be at this week, I've had to send junior staff and that will risk the pull through. Not a happy bunny work wise here.

LH are operating flights this evening out of Munich, to:
Bangkok
Tel Aviv
Sao Paulo
Johannesburg
(maybe JFK)
AF are using Toulouse for several long haul flights.

Hopefully nothing will worsen to mean our airports aren't back in operation soon.

Is NCL going to get some transatlantic traffic?

I'll be able to give you an eye witness report - we live under the arrival track.

We get Emirates jets here so...

[Bazz]

Micael O'Leary has just been interviewed on Sky News and made a lot of sense. He says they will probably fly some 50 or so empty (positioning) flights before they fly with pax, he went on to say that each of these aircraft would be thoroughly checked by engineers to assess any damage before they would return with pax.

The piece will probably be on Sky Player.

I'm keeping everything crossed people get flying soon.

My current flight (booked ages ago) is due to leave San Francisco on Tuesday. I am hoping and praying that the airspace reopens and I become one of the luckiest people alive.

[honey lamb]

Sky reporting phased opening of UK airspace from tomorrow with southern England being opened up from 18.00 tomorrow.

That's what I heard on RTE news. It said Scottish airports at 7am, some English airports at 1pm and LHR and LGW to open at 6pm

[mitchja]

Manchester airport set to open again tomorrow at 09:00 according to their Twitter page:

http://twitter.com/manairport